1/3

I think I’m the effective stack with like 700 maybe

H: extremely tight image. Folding like for 2 hours straight. Very card dead. No one cares probably.

V: has me covered I believe. Playing lots and lots of hands. Usually not very aggressive. Cold called a reraise with 72 suited

OTTH he opens UTG to 11 one call cutoff calls I call button with J9 off

Others fold

(48) flop Jc 9s 2h

He bets 25 next to act calls I make it 80 V calls next to act folds

(233) turn 9d check check

River Kd he jams???

Maybe like 2.5x pot

Yeah I'm snap calling. I'm guessing you posted this because he turned over KK but it is what it is.

Fold pre, raise larger than 3.2x on flop, I would go closer to 110 with the caller if we are even going to raise, bet half pot turn, then you wouldn’t be in this 2.5x pot situation on the river

Given V's profile, why on earth did you check the turn? He was willing to call your reraise on the flop. Make him pay.

If you got coolered on the river, so be it, but there's no way on God's green earth you can fold in this situation. Checking the turn gave him a freeroll to hit his two-outer if he indeed had KK. If he didn't, he was drawing dead, so checking might seem superficially attractive if you want to go all tricky-poo, but really, the prospect of getting more money out of him that way was much less than sticking a couple hundred out there in straightforward fashion and hoping he calls.

If you have any doubt about whether you should call the river bet, keep in mind that if you would fold in such a situation, V could jam if any Q, K, or A came on the river, regardless of his actual hand.

Call pf is fine on the button 700 deep pf.

Bet the turn. You're looking to get stacks in now. Bet 150 and jam the river.

FWIW, you want people to call you with only 2 outs. Unfortunately, some times they get there.

Not sure calling pre is good. I’m not going to run the numbers but a loose passive V opened UTG. Basically I see that as a big PP a fairly large % of the time. If we need to have 2P+ to win almost always, I just don’t know if it’s worth it.

Agree with the rest.

How is this a real hand? Who shoves riv like this?

Anyways bet turn, River, idk what to tell you this is so bizarre - you need him to be spazzing and he prob just has K9/KK a lot.

We're about 20:1 against hitting a big hand on the flop and have position. The maximum implied odds is in the mid 60's. As the second biggest nit on this forum, I'm not folding here. I think GG calls this one. If he has AK and misses, I can take this pot with napkins. If he shows me AA, I'd want to call even more.

I folded… what do you guys think of this?

Honestly he dead stared me in the eyes and said I’m all In so confidently.

I thought he could easily have Q10

It just seemed so odd because this guy was such a station not taking a lot of aggressive lines

The problem is you beat practically everything and it should be really easy to narrow his range to a specific set of hands based on your description.

People who play like you described don’t typically open QT from anywhere. They limp it.

They do typically open big pocket pairs though. Based on the river K and the action prior, it’s unlikely he has QQ, TT-. So even if his range is solely AA, KK, & JJ, you still have 60% equity vs that range and only need ~42% equity to call.

By folding, you need to be certain that V never does this with AA (in reality it’s really 3 combos of AA, but bad players play in a vacuum and tend to do the same thing with a specific hand, so in this case if he does it with 1 combo of AA, he would do it with all combos of AA).

Don’t get me wrong, a fold could be the correct play, but you would have to be certain. If you’re going to be folding bad starting hands that make the extremely strong 3rd nuts incorrectly ever, you just can’t play those hands. The value of being able to play those hands is in getting paid off when you have extremely strong made hands. Once you lose that and you’re profit/loss will be overtaken by all the typical times you c/f. (Bare in mind, this hands 3rd nuts is entirely different than having the Q on a 4 suit board, ie something where it’s easy for V to have the nuts/2nd nuts)

Im with you on fold pre but the rest of this is confusing. Why wouldn't we want to be in this spot? This is a literal gold mine. Sure he has KK/JJ some times but that is 4 combos. I doubt he opens K9.

Ill take this spot as many times as someone will give it to me

Maybe Im misunderstanding but we beat QT. Folding is crazy to me but I don't play much if any 1/3. We beat A9, other 9x, AA, QT, random spazzes. I'm never folding here

The small flop raise and turn check are the biggest problems here. The whole point of opening up our range on the button deep against bad loose Vs is that they can't fold 2nd best hands in big pots. So exploit that. If we're going to flop top 2 & turn a boat and not get more value, fold pre.

OTR, a passive V who opened UTG is going to have KK a lot when he jams 2.5x here. It's one of those annoying spots where we lose to so few combos, but no other hands make much sense, so it really comes down to how capable of spazz this V is.

Not trying to pile on here, but what was your thought process on the turn? Obviously, it sucks when he gets there on river, but I just don't get the thought behind the check. You aren't ever getting the stacks in on a brick if he isn't committed, if you want maximum value on brick rivers, you got to pot build on the turn here.

Flop raise is fine if he is the only one who was in, but with 1 caller, I go at least 100 on flop.

I'm whatever preflop. I think folding is fine, but I'm certainly not going to hate on overcalling with a speculative hand for just 1.5% of our stack on the button (especially if there are any clueless players involved). Against a guy who isn't very aggressive, I'm not looking to 3bet his EP open.

I'm cool with the flop raise.

Really don't like our turn check. Our preflop goal was to see a flop for cheap in position and then attempt to build a big pot if we hit; big pots aren't built by checking behind. At the very least just get in a small bet here (even 1/3 PSB) just to re-open the betting and to make the river bet just that much bigger.

Gross river spot. How often do large $700 stacks get in and what do people show up with when this happens? This really reeks of KK/JJ. Is a non-aggressive guy really doing this for this huge amount with a floating KQ just cuz we weakly checked the turn (when we could have just as easily been tarping)? No one plays AA/etc. like this. I'm not sure if I'm good enough to fold, but it's probably the best move against most in a lotta pools (although admittedly you'll know your pool better than I do).

ETA: I missed that he could have had QT for the busted OESD. It mostly boils down to if anyone in your pool is capable of hugely overbetting this amount of significant $$$ on a bluff / massively overvalue spazzing with AA/etc., and even if a couple guys are, is this that guy? Plus capable of doing this against us who raised the flop multiway and could easily be tarping a monster on the turn. So I have no problem with the fold.

GcluelessNLnoobG

All I play is 1/3 NL (which is why I don't post in threads of other steaks). While admitting that pools may differ...

AA literally never plays this way. Ever. When they get raised on the flop all they can think is "****, you just cracked me with your stupid 22". They're thankful that you checked back the turn, but they are also very suspicious of the move. At most, they might do a small blocking bet on the river attempting to set their own price. But they are literally never ever shoving ~$600 stacks into strength like this.

QT/KQ/etc. might think of bluffing. But most at this level simply don't have the balls to bluff for this huge amount (both in terms of pot size and $$$). Are we going to see $150 into $233 some of the time? Sure. But never ~$600.

Which leaves 9x/22. A non-aggressive guy is very rarely raising these types of hands in EP. And I'm also not convinced they're attempting to get in these types of stacks on the river when they're not nuttish and there are clearly lottsa hands that could be ahead. They'll do a decent sized large bet on the river, but doubtful this large.

KK/JJ consider themselves nuttish. And overall, the best play with the ~nuts on the river is to shove and hope for the best. These nuttish hands are pretty much the only hands that most will be confidently willing to bet themselves for so much $$$ into a pot this size.

At least, that is my experience.

GcluelessNLnoobG

^QT is a straight, not a busted draw. (But still pretty unlikely a passive 1/3 V both opens it UTG and jams it for 2.5x on a paired board, imo.)

Oooh, missed that. Makes it closer, but I still think folding isn't ridiculous.

GcluelessboardreadingnoobG

I am not good enough to fold a boat unless it's on a double paired board.

The way we played the hand though, we looked massively underrepped. It looks like we played it like a semi bluff, and when the turn bricked out, we went into cheap showdown mode. I don't think it's impossible here for V to be bluffing, or think a hand like Q10 is the nuts here, but I call here expecting to be beat a decent chunk of the time.

If I've mathed right, we need to be good here 42% of the time to breakeven.

Gmeh?G

Yes, I got the same in my post above

If he has KK and JJ, he would need to do this with 3 combos of AA (or really 3 combos of any hand) for this to be roughly profitable

Now realizing that the straight actually got there is what may turn it for me (FWIW, I'm never seeing AA here). If we give him QTs/22, he just has to play those this way a little less than 50% of the time and we're pretty close. Might be more of a crying call than I originally thought.

GnothatingoneitherplayG

he's probably got T8. Rule #1, if they act strong, they're weak. Bet the turn, snap call the river, fold pre.

I really think it's a good fold. Not because he stared you in the eyes, but bc some rando just shipped 600 in there after you raise his pfr/cbet... So now suddenly he goes from standard play to insanity because QT got there? GTFOH. He 2 outed you and doesn't care what you have - your turn check is absolutely horrendous though, so, if any thing just focus on that.

Basically this. Hitting a boat and getting your SRP lower is a feature of a hand like yours, not a bug. And if your goal is to check turn to then induce your opponent to shove nothing, isn't this the ideal scenario?