Hero - $300 , was down $100 got back up hitting a couple decent flops
Villain - $250 , loves to cbet bluff but hasn't seen him raise before

Table was pretty action , lots of raising and calls in $12-20 range.

3 limps to hero in SB with QQ, raises to 18 ( i should have made this bigger to maybe 20-25 after re-assessing )

3 callers including villain in LP, his range could be pairs, connectors, suited ace etc since he limp called.

($73) Flop: 6c4s2d

I bet out 30, folds to villain who calls, button folds.

($133) Turn: 7c

I bet out 35, he raises to 70, i call

($273) River: 7d , i check, he shoves remaining $100 ish and hero... calls?

Hero went on major tilt after this and regretted his decisions.

Why are you commenting at the end of the hand. Just going to allow people to be biased.


Bigger flop bet.

Your turn size is atrocious. I probably cry call river as played. Your flop and turn size makes this awkward.

I agree with the crying call on the river. The second 7 will counterfeit enough 64/42 that the occasional bluff/smaller over pair is enough to make calling at that point worth it.

Your turn sizing is the biggest problem in this hand. With $133 in the pot and villain having $170 you need to either check turn or bet $75/$80 yourself and commit to the pot.

Hero hasn't told us if he called or folded. I assumed he folded.

As you know, bigger pre. Bigger on flop -- at least half pot, I'd go $40.

Bigger turn -- basically commit yourself or just shove over his min-raise.

As played, call river. You played it so passively that V should be shoving with almost any hand.

More pre and way more on the flop. This is a great flop for an overpair. Look to gii on the turn.

As played, I'm shoving the turn. Obviously never folding the river, though it should never have gotten to that point.

Bigger pre

I don't mind flop sizing. We're not getting a ton of hands to call bigger plus I'd rather keep Vs range wider. Think about what we're doing with AK/AQ here

Turn has to be bigger or check/jam

River is a call. Our had looks like missed overs. We're majorly under repped. V could have 6x, 4x, 2x TT-88, 55, 33, as well as 7x

pre seems fine unless they are not price sensitive.

bet flop larger for value from 77-99/6x/ pair + GS type things

b/f turn bigger

bluff minraise turn super uncommon

Bluff minraise might be uncommon, but it's much more common when hero bets $35 into $133. V might think he has the best hand but still be way behind hero.

birds eye view: when you flop an overpair with these stack sizes (~80bb) and large-ish preflop raise, lean toward getting it in.

As played, your small flop bet and especially small turn bet invite villain to get frisky, either floating flop light or raising turn light.

Not sure what the plan is when you bet/call the turn. Maybe you can walk us through what you were thinking?

OTT V thinks his 88 is the nutz

Yeah, after this many limps I think this is an easier bet to 10% of stacks; even $30 would fly at my table lots, but if everyone is at $250 then easily $25. Plus we'll be OOP postflop (therefore the cooler we are with just taking down $15 preflop and moving on).

And here's the problem with going multiway OOP with what is most likely just going to be an unimproved overpair. The SPR is 4, so stacks should probably go in on just 2 streets (with a PSB/PSB). Did someone outflop us getting in just 6% of their stack and going 4ways? We don't have any room to find out.

Anyhoo, on this drawless board I'd probably bet small too.

I might check the turn. A smaller overpair might manage a hero fold at this point (whereas they will likely bet if checked to), and a lot of the smaller pairs have setted up. Also, kinda not a lot of smaller overpairs overlimping the button.

I probably manage a hero fold to the raise on the turn. It's a minraise expecting a call and our hand looks exactly what it is.

With the slight more drawiness of the board I'm guessing if we're thinking of calling the turn we should probably just shove it.

GpreflopmadethishanddifficulttoplayG

Against a guy who raised in the blinds, bet the flop 4ways and bet the turn?

GifVillainis******ed,then,yeahG

Bet the turn for ~25% psb + same bet as previous street, which tends to be weak

How many times do you see Vs put someone on specifically AK?

These same Vs auto cbet basically every hand as PFR and have no problems projecting everyone plays similarly

Even though the flop cbet is smallish (but not overly so), and the turn bet is very small, it's still a preflop raise from the blinds / cbet into 3 opponents / bet; people are playing AK this way?

GdoubttoomanyareG

Villain had 5-8o i called.

Yes, actually they are IMO. They either play AK way too passively (it's a drawing hand!) or way to aggressively. Most people are relatively bad

You learned a cheap lesson about bet sizing.

Beluga Theorem. You have TP/OP, bet every street and get raised, it is time to fold. You made this more difficult for yourself by betting so small.

I mean, yes, it's generally true but the pot is 238 and we only need to call 35.

35/273 = .128 or 12.8%

It's not hard to construct a reasonable range that we have 13% equity against.

I'm not sitting in front of an equity calculator but I'm pretty sure a range of 2P+ we probably have 13% against. Add in overpairs and hands like BDFD+ 1pair and it's a pretty easy call

edit (got off my ass and went to my computer):

ok so against 2P+ (less 72) we're ~9%

against {2P+ (less 72), 88} we're 14.25%

against {2P+ (less 72), 99, 88} we're 19.5%

We're not really calling $35 to win $273.
We're calling $135 to win $473 since we should expect him to shove the river about 100% of the time.
So we to be good 28.5% of the time.

Which means that we need to fold.

it's not really that hard to get up to 30% either especially if V thinks he has the best hand with only a pair because we look like we have a hand that is overs.

Edit:

I also wouldn't guarantee that he shoves river. LLSNL players are notoriously show down monkeys. There are many rivers he isn't shoving

Somewhat disagree. Hero makes a super weak 1/4 PSB on the turn. It's not like hero made a PSB every street and got raised. Additionally, low stakes villains tend to value overpairs much more than say TPWK. I don't see how hero can possibly fold the turn for ~7:1 odds.

Even on the river, hero usually loses to 11 combos of 76s and sets. Hero only needs ~3 worse overpair combos. I suppose it's more if we add some lol KK+.

This seems like an academic argument. If OP is savvy enough to hero fold a min-raise here, OP is also savvy enough to prevent this situation from ever occurring in the first place.

To be results oriented, this is a ridiculous hand. Easy reload if villains are limp-calling 85o and calling the flop with gutshots.

i kind of feel like folding is just opening us up to being super exploitable. if i saw this hand go down and Hero folded to the min raise, why am i not bluff raising hero in this same situation with every hand?

Best way to improve is to ask yourself how it was that 58o was able to get to the turn only having to invest 16 BB's. It all starts with preflop sizing which in turn affects flop sizing.

Villain should have easily folded at both junctures if proper bet sizing was utilized.

I'm actually OK with the sizing.

You can't call the turn raise and then fold the river, it's a massive leak. So either fold when you're raised or move in. That's poker.