How happy are you if you flop an ace and face a good-sized c-bet and turn bet?

That was meant as an actual question, not sarcasm.

P.S. When I have AJ I'm happer to flop a J than an A. It's harder to get value-owned by QQ or KK than AQ or AK.

The problem with raising to $300 OTR is that it allows villain to call with some weaker flushes. Do you guys think that villain is inelastic enough to call $300 with the same range of hands as he calls $810?

Also I don't think that AJo is a fold against a reg opening in MP when I have position. He's not a 70/4 loose-passive fish; he's a 30/20 TAG reg. He's probably opening hands like 97s, 22, A3s and KJo from MP, so I felt that AJo was doing well enough against his range of hands to justify a call, especially when we have absolute position.

Those raises have different calling ranges, but that's the problem is you don't know them and are forced to compensate to the upside on what is not a big pot until the river. Your assumption about folding baby flushes or even big flushes seems optimistic, all it takes in big spots like this is for V to level himself in the wrong direction.

This would be a good value raise if you did have the nuts because a lot of flushes might hero call a suspiciously large bet. You don't have enough history to know his threshold, I probably just lay it down. If you put him on a straight on a smaller raise will certainly do it, but relying on someone to fold a rivered flush on an unpaired board is very uncertain. It's why they saw the river.

"I doubt he thinks I'm ever bluffing here."

Why do you think he thinks that? What if he does think you're bluffing more than you think he thinks it?

30/20 is not a tag. TAG plays like 11/8. He is probably loose passive with an aggressive pre.

And yes its a snap fold. You had a whole thread on this.

if villain opened EP (UTG UTG+1 UTG+2) its a fold
V opened from MP his range is much wider
call is completely standard

again v is a TAG not a 60 year NIT

we are on the BTN we control the action

Its a completely standard call dude these guys are crazy for thinking to fold AJ off on button from a MP open

If V opened from EP then its a fold

however your stats on V are more of a competent lag tag is more like 14/9

30/20 is super aggro

If villain is 30/20 you should have 3 bet pre flop

Perhaps in 2004. 11/8 is a big nit.

TAG is more like 16/13

I think you might be a little bit too deep relative to the pot, as this has to work all the time. But then, it might work all the time. But on the other hand, it looks a little weird which might get you looked up.

I've actually been thinking about this play lately because I can think of a number of people who I think fold a K high flush to me in such a spot. At least they do so often. I could very well fold the K high flush to them in such spots. Haven't had the balls to try it yet. Which is why it would work.

Just last week, Reg A moved in on Reg B in a spot like this. They were about 250 deep in 1/3 with about 100 in the pot, after Reb B's river bet. Reg B took about 5 seconds and calmly folded the flush he made with 8s6s and moved on like it was nothing.

Amazing what people pout over these days

This is a really good point to consider. For the folks who are saying this is an easy fold and total spew for jamming because essentially they're assuming a somewhat inelastic calling range, then the same folks should be advocating a shove every time we actually have the Ace high flush here because the math based on there somewhat inelastic assumptions would demand it.

Obviously a very large bet is going to win this pot quite often at these stakes levels against the described opponent. The better question is if you were the opponent, could you find a call here, given that the turn was checked through in a heads up pot? You are specifically repping the nut flush or bluffing. To have the nut flush you pretty much had to have had a pair, an overcard, a gutshot str8 draw and the nut flush draw and decided to check back on a great semi bluffing board when your oop opponent shut down. I find that hard to believe and would like to think I would have nutted up and called.

OK. But how many times have you seen someone make this bluff?

Not many. That's why I think it wins the pot pretty often. I just think it isn't very interesting. Sniffing it out could be educational though.

On the turn he could easily have pair + K OESD/flush draw; there is no reason for him to barrel turn with this hand (in fact, in might be detrimental if he faces a raise).

GcaneasilyhaveKhighflushhere,imoG

This is just a leveling war. This (nut blocker) play is used a lot in plo. I like the play depending on the villian obviously. He has to think you're good enough to bluff that exact hand cause you're super polarized. You either have the nutz or the naked ace. He knows hes not snapping off a q high flush.

His call isn't determined by having a k high flush or any flush since a non nut flush never shoves. Its all about if he thinks you're capable of making that play. If he thinks you're even then its a super hard call.

You just never see anything but the nutz in live low stakes in a spot like this.

so at a hypothetical 10 handed table full of TIGHT aggressive players, there is a 3 bet in ~30%of hands. Seems legit.

This

Results:

What's funny is if you did a reverse hand history where you played the king high flush this way and got raised on the river, everyone would be saying it's a snap fold.

No

I'd certainly fold the K high flush here. Alas, this is not a reverse HH.

What are you trying to get V to fold?

Wouldn't a smaller bet have the same effect and not risk 300bb?

Like raising to $300 OTR is basically the same thing.

No villain will sigh call to often here with maybe straight or worse flush

as long as hero can balance in nuts and bluffs here it is exactly the right play

with a bet like this he is saying I have A high flush or nothing


he does this for value with no other hand

Before I read through the thread my initial thought is "YIKES."

If you're going to turn your hand into a bluff, you don't need to risk your entire stack to do it. I don't mind the idea of overbetting here to bluff. You have the As, which is critical. But would you bet this big with ATss? Or would you bet more like $300-$400? I don't mind the bluff, but the sizing seems overboard to me.