I will mention one specific hand, but I'm interested in hearing feedback regarding specific conditions (flop texture, how many in the hand, stack sizes, position, etc) that form the cutoff between checking back top set on the flop and betting.

Sunday night at Aria. Table has been lively and action has been loose.

Villain in this hand is an African American gentleman in his mid 50s. His VPIP/PFR is about 38/2 after 50 hands. In the first hand he played he limped in early position, I raised to $13 in MP, it folded back to him and he folded (he's in the 4 seat, I'm in the 7). Since then he's been limp/calling a lot rather than limp/folding. I've only observed him make one big bet postflop. In that hand there was a five way limped pot with him OTB, it came 59Tr, one player bet $15, another called, he made it $80, and everyone folded. In all other hands he has played very passively postflop. In one hand he limped in MP, I raised on the button, he called. Flop came Q62r. He checked, I bet $16, he open mucked JJ (I had A8cc and kept my cards face down). It seems he is more likely to call down with draws than pocket pairs below top pair. He starts this hand with $80.

Hero is a white guy in his late twenties. My VPIP/PFR is 14/11 at this point. I've been getting HU or 3way with most of my raises. I think I've c-bet the last five HU/3way flops in a row. I start with $350.

Villain limps in MP. Hero looks down at A A OTB and makes it $13. Folds back to villain who calls. $26 in pot after drop.

Flop comes A K 7. Villain checks. Hero ???

On one hand, I don't think there are a ton of made hands villain can have that will call a flop bet if he open mucks JJ on the Q62r flop. I don't like the idea of giving him a free card and then wondering whether or not I'm ahead when the turn brings a Q, J, T or ; only cards that I want villain to improve to are 2 outers (unless he's holding something like K9s and hits a 9 on the turn). Is this a spot where I make my standard continuation bet and hope he either a) has a draw, b) finally decides to take a stand with KQ/case Ax, or c) somehow flopped 777 and is waiting to c/r? It seems that way but I'm interested to hear other thoughts.

Run hand range combos.

How can the flop be wet given your holding and board texture?

Three broadways have gutshots (QJ, QT, JT) and there is also the flush draw for any hand. Combo draws (KJ, Q J) will think they have a ton of outs.

Mind you I'm not saying wet as in, "I'm concerned about protecting my hand and want to push villain away." I'm trying to figure out the best way to maximize value in the hand, and if the best way to do that is get V to put money in with a draw, then I bet here. I think he's more likely to put money in the pot with a draw than a worse made hand. But weighing that against the merits of checking back and trying to make villain think I have something like 77 and didn't like the flop.

Correct, but there are 3 other suits, not to mention other hands in villain's range.

Well if he has many of those hands I think the flop action is probably irrelevant. He's passive enough to x/f all three streets with 65 if he doesn't hit runner runner, so betting and checking back both result in zero additional dollars for those hands.

One unknown for this villain was whether or not he would be more likely to give me action if he held TT/99/88/KT and I checked back the flop. From the previous example I think he probably folds these hands when I bet the flop, but he might x/c them on the turn if I check back the flop and then bet a blank on the turn.

I was merely suggesting that the board is not wet.

This isn't a wet board. TJ8 or 567 monotone or FD flops would be pretty wet for a top set hand. This board is pretty awesome. I'm potting the flop.

There are certainly flops that are MORE wet like the examples you've given. But, compared to a flop like A 9 2 rainbow I think we can agree this flop is more wet. There are 18 turn cards we aren't thrilled to see. Any T J Q, or diamond. So, 9 flush cards + 3 Ts, 3 Js, and 3 Qs (diamonds removed). Doesn't mean we are losing if they come, but they're not great imo. I dunno, just my thoughts on the subject.

In general, when I have top set, especially a set of aces, I tend to bet to target draws. The reason is because it's so hard for my opponents to have a made hand to pay me off with, since I block a lot of top pair combos.

In this situation, the guy has $67 and there's $26 in the pot. As long as you bet enough so that you can shove the turn comfortably, you can't misplay it. $25/42 is fine; $20/47 is also fine.

This is kind of what I was getting at. If the flop had been A72r or A93r I would consider that bone dry and would often check back (esp with V short stacked) in the hopes that villain might pick up a straight or flush draw on the turn or hit two pair or a set of his own. But I thought this flop was wet enough that he might have a draw often enough to call a flop bet.

Making it 25 or so on the flop then his remaining 42 on the turn. No use letting him see a free card if he will pay for a draw.

Just bet. Better to charge draws than slowplay and hope for a weird bluff. There aren't exactly many cards on an A-high board that are going to come and suddenly make him want to pay you off with a worse hand.

Maybe top set on a different flop against a different opponent but as a default you can't really go wrong just betting. However you can absolutely go wrong slowplaying and missing value.

So you said it yourself, he wil call with draws and not 2nd pair. He's gonna fold his non ace hands no matter what you do, his ace hands he will call, his draws he will call. So betting gets value from all Ax and all draws and folds all other pairs, but those are gonna fold anyway. Checking flop gives his draws free cards and what are you hoping happens with his non draw hands? He's gonna fold even if they make a pair anyway. Bet flop shove turn wp.

This is probably the biggest leak in my game. I would want to take the pot down on the flop, I would hate seeing a turn.

Bet 15 on the flop, so that he can call with KQ, KJ. At this point in the night he might be getting frustrated from getting his JJ cracked as well as losing in general and might decide to take a stand vs. young kid with a K.

Of course if he has T9/44 type of hand he folds regardless of what you do and there is no way to get any value or induce bluffs out of him.

the nice thing is if you slow play top set on a truly wet board, villains also wont ever believe you have top set because who would ever slowplay a set on a wet board?

That's assuming villain is observant enough of such detail.

On the other hand they always put you on AK so yeah...there's that too.

Yes that is a massive leak then not sure if it is your biggest though

I always play top set faster too on anything that isn't A72r, just because you're going to win more by taking down a large pot from someone with 2pair/KQdd/JTdd/set every once and a while than you are by getting KTss to give you one street a larger percentage of the time, but losing a large amount when a gutshot gets spiked against you.

Bet to get value from 'big hands', put money when you are ahead and on boards like that there are plenty of worse hands that can call.

Results:

I bet $16 into $26. Villain folds.

Sorry if the whole thing seemed uninteresting/trivial. Mainly I wanted to poll and see if anyone would have preferred to check back in that spot and hope villain leads the turn with a pair or draw. At this point I'm still on board with the idea that I should be betting top set at this level on all but the most bone dry flops (i.e. A72r, etc). I know in Harrington on Cash he talks about how sometimes you have to check back top set since it can (esp on very dry flops) make it very unlikely that villains have any sort of hand to continue with.

Other hand kind of like this in the session:

Fish limps. Bigger fish (rebuying $100 stacks at a five per hour rate) makes it $6. Hero 3b to $22 with J J. Folds around to fish 1 who calls, as does fish 2. $66 in pot.

Flop J 7 4. Both fish check, hero bets $40, both fish fold.

Again, don't think I should be checking back that flop either. One of these fish would have likely called if they had as good a hand as 88+ or a gutshot/flush draw. Just didn't get action with top set that day (although in my other post 999 gets more action than I would have liked to see).

Harrington said something in Cash Games about Vs who wouldn't bet or call the flop aren't going to bet or call the turn, so you might as well bet. Fact is that for V's range the board getting any wetter is actually grosser for him than for you, so checking just increases the odds that he folds later. Literally V has to be the sort of person who hits a pair on the turn and when you bet decides to stick with it, and this V isn't your guy. Just bet, know he's going to fold, enjoy your $26 pot, stop feeling that not getting max value out of someone with a set of aces is the same as getting aces cracked. (Oh wait, that's what I do because I'm dumb. I mean, if I ever saw a set of aces.)

There are three main reasons to slow-play:

1. To allow our opponent to make a hand which is good enough to pay us off

2. To disguise our hand, allowing our opponent to pay us off on later streets with weaker holdings

3. To induce bluffs from hands which think we are showing weakness.

Given most of our opponents at LLSNL (especially the Vs described) are only playing their own two cards, reason 2 is irrelevant. Disguising our hand is not needed, because they will pay us off with weak holdings regardless.

Additionally, at a loose PASSIVE table like described, reason 3 is also irrelevant since they are not likely to bluff.

As such, the only question we need to ask ourselves when deciding to slowplay in these situations is:

"How much of my opponents range will fold to a flop bet but will call a turn/river bet without making a better hand than mine?"

In the case of the AK7dd flop, I think the answer is only lower pocket pairs which turn/river sets, or the naked Qd if a diamond falls OTT (which will slow the action regardless). On the other hand, flush-draws and some straight draws are calling a bet on the flop (and indeed, are more likely to call on the flop than the turn). Some Kx and 7x hands may also find a call here, but may not call on the turn because your line wou;d look to them how THEY would play a set.

On the J74cc flop on the other hand, there are a LOT of hands which won't call a flop bet but can improve to a pay-off hand on a lot of turns. All over-card hands can turn either top-pair or a straight draw, the Ac will NEVER be folding on a club turn given the Vs described. Also, ordinarily loose-passive opponents have a tendency to spas out after the PFR checks in this spot, because they "put you on AK", and feel the need to protect their hand (a mid-pair), often with some massive over-bet.

In short, bet hand 1, check hand 2.

This. However I don't think hand 2 would be too terrible to bet. Tons of turn cards that can make things tricky. Also effective stacks would be nice. If we are deep stacked I could see a check, however 150bb or I think a 2/3 pot bet should do the trick