I'm not so sure my analysis, even though you say it's 'detailed', is accurate.
For one, I'm not so sure that checking those good draws you have OTF is a good play. I thought is was, since it allows V to donk with nothing OTT & OTR.
This is what you said about the River:
- He will generally fold top pair or worse, but will sometimes call
- He will generally call with 2 pairs or a set, but will sometimes fold
- He will generally call with a made straight, but will sometimes reraise
- He will always reraise a made flush
- He will generally fold a busted draw, but will sometimes reraise (as a bluff)
I find it extremely hard to wrap my head around the fact that there is a poker payer who will play so Laggish & then fold a set sometimes OTR, while being the same player who will re-raise with a busted draw.
When you saw him re-raise with a busted draw, did he win the hand with high card or did he just say "I missed, I just have a busted draw" and his V show the best hand?
Getting on his table whenever possible & watching the way he plays more & what he shows down OTR will help get a better understanding of what he is doing.
Two books that may be helpful are Janda's AONLH & Miller's elementary version of Janda's book "The 1%". Of course you need Flopzilla & other sources to help work out board textures etc.
If the guy plays close to the description you gave, I'm never folding the nut flush draw with that bet sizing. I have to see his hand OTR.
Bluffing BIG OTR is not in my bag of tricks.
I tried a bluff pre this evening against I guy who knows me extremely well. I O/R to $12 with TT & got 3 callers [unusual in this game when I O/R UTG] & then my V raised to $77 in the BB.
Now I figured V had to have JJ/QQ. I didn't think he was willing to be satisfied with $48 [before rake & tip] with KK.
I also believed that if I raised BIG, he would have to figure I had AA/KK. No way would I do it with AKs. So........I went all-in for $299.00. Everyone folds, he ponders for <20 seconds & calls.
I turn over TT, he turns of JJ & I flop a set & he doesn't improve. There was no doubt in my mind that he was going to fold pre. That's how good of a player I am. Needless to say, I got stuck with the dinner tab. Luckily it was 2 for 1