1/3 NL. Hero is young 20s white ($600) playing tight and aggressive, always coming in for raises pre. Villain is newer to the table and has not been involved with hero at all yet.

Villain (covers) is an older asian man. He's only been at the table about an hour. He is pretty loose pre. Has shown up calling raises with 95 and K3 that Hero has seen so far, but nothing too crazy other than that. Coming in for a mix of limps and raises. Haven't seen enough of his raised hands to be sure of his opening range.

OTTH.

Villain opens to $13 UTG+1
MAWG flats in the HJ
I flat on the BTN with QJ

Pot ($40)
Flop
QJ5

Villain c-bets $20
MAWG calls
I raise to $65 (bit of a misclick, meant to size a bit larger to $75)
Villain calls, MAWG folds.

not sure if he's the type that would 3!/call with a combo draw here, especially this deep. Could easily see him flatting instead. Ranging villain on AQ, KQ, AhKh, KhTh, AhTh, AA, KK and possibly some smaller AhXh combos as well

Pot ($190)
Turn T
Villain checks
I bet $100, he tank calls.

Pot ($390)
River 3
Villain checks
Hero??


So obviously not the best runout but will we get calls enough from the AQ/KQ/AA/KK in villains range to bet/fold this river for value? Or are most people just checking it back here. If bet/folding what size?

Seems like a reasonable spot to iso 3bet pre. Call is fine also.

Wouldn't mind a bigger sizing on the flop indeed, but certainly ott. We want to play for stacks on the river and that's happening a lot more if you bet $150 on the turn.

On the river i can't really fault you for checking back, but i might throw $100 out there and hope for the crying call.

I would not recommend iso raising pre a loose player, especially with QJo. But I agree with sizing bigger OTF and OTT. You're actually giving goods odds for a combo draw to continue. Because of this, I might check back river since he can easily have flushes in his range. But if you wanna go for value, go small so that villain can call with worse hands. Bet 25-33% of the pot.

better definitely calls, worse not so much, i'd check it back

Against a villain like this I'd probably throw a few AKo into his range because it flops a gutshot and two overcards and that's going to look appealing to a fish. That's consistent with him tanking on the turn thinking about a c/r. And you do a lot worse against a range with some AKo in it.

The tanking on the turn could also mean he has a hand you beat that he is unsure about, and another heart on the river will scare him even more.

Based on this I'd check. With the range given in the OP it's closer and I think it's a much tougher decision.

Yeah I agree I need to size up the flop and turn here.

Results:

You're bluffing with that sizing. It's more likely 98o folds than JTo calls.

Absolutely love this bet fold for value. Maybe the sizing was off a little bit on other streets, but you're right in the sense that at these stakes you'll rarely see him waking up on the river as a bluff. And again he'll certainly call with a worse range.

Plus I don't think he value owns himself with worse in this spot. So as played in I don't see anything wrong with this hand.