Hero: Just moved to this table. Had his stack up to $800 at the last table through aggressive play but is now down to $500, probably due to the other players getting tired of him running over the table.

Villain: Covers Hero. I've played with him before. He's a little loose, pretty typical $1/$3 player.

Villain raises to $10 from UTG+1. From experience with him, this is 77+ and any Broadway cards suited or not.

Hero calls from MP with 46. I'm not sure what I was thinking as this is the third hand I've seen at this table. I'm probably seeing that he could double me up but I don't like this call in this position (players behind).

Two more players call from late position.

Flop ($44) Q 23

V bets $25

My thoughts in this moment is "BS" and I raise to $65. Folds to V who calls.

Turn ($167 after rake) J

V checks. I bet $100. V insta-calls. My stomach is flip-flopping as I've now invested $175 on 6 high and I can really only count the 5's as perfectly clean outs.

River ($367) Q

V checks. Hero?

In before the "fold pre" responses.....

Seems like you had no plan for this hand.

I would played differently but if I were on the river making a decision I would bet $300 or just jam. We want to represent a Q here. I don't think Villain plan is to check raise you or check call. Checking behind is just giving away the pot.

I agree, I normally never play it this way but I've been trying to break out of my normal play.

Do you think the Q OTR makes this a better spot to jam or a worse spot?

I think you can check this turn a fair % of the time without a read

You can still barrel aces and queens OTR as a bluff in addition to betting when you hit.

Entirely read dependent on the river. Do you think he has the queen or not? He raised in EP, so if he has a queen it's probably a good one. It's very unlikely you can bet him off any queen on the river.

If he doesn't have a queen then what is in his range for calling the flop raise? Does it include better diamond draws that whiffed? Over pairs? Middle pairs? If he doesn't have the queen then river is a great card for you to bluff because even AA/KK might fold on river. What sort of bet sizing he will call on river also matters a lot. Will he read a shove for a bluff and call too often? How often will he fold to a value bet if he has a pair? Does he ever fold to suck bets? Do you have any history of bluffing this villain? Have you seen him in other hands that people have bluffed? How often does he bluff?

In abstract I like $250 on river. Something that looks like you have AQ/QJ and are trying to get decent value from an over pair or weaker queen.

Given that you say he's raising all broadways pre-flop, his range here probably includes a decent amount of broadway diamond combos. It would explain the turn snap-call, since this timing tell is often indicative of a draw/pair which turned additional equity.

Our bet here would be targetting AK/AT/KT of diamonds primarily, although there is a non-zero chance that we can fold out JT/KJ/AJ of diamonds with a large enough bet. His range also includes AA/KK/AQ, of which AQ is never folding, and AA/KK are probably not folding. His Qxdd hands are also not folding, and I don't think we can discount those from his river check.

As such, this is a simple combinatorics exercise to determine the break-even bet-size to fold out his missed flush-draws.

AT/AK/KT diamonds are always folding (3 combos)
JT/KJ/AJ are sometimes folding (1.5/3 combos to approximate)
Qxdd and AQ are never folding (11 combos)
AA/KK are rarely folding (10/12 combos to approximate)

As such, he's folding approximately 5.5/29 times using these approximations/ranges. As such we need to bet about 5.5/29 of the pot, which is about $80, but will be way too small to fold out Jxdd type hands, and as such even then will probably be unprofitable imo. Indeed, we might even get hero-called by AK/AT with such a small bet.

Therefore, check behind river, I don't think he's folding enough hands for us to turn a profit betting here.

After we get snap called on the turn, I don't think we're getting AA/KK to fold by the way, even if this is typically the ideal river to bluff those hands, live players don't fold over-pairs often enough.

I felt strongly that he doesn't have the Q, as he is the type to re-pop the flop raise rather than call (he doesn't give up initiative easily, so in retrospect his range is weighted towards draws).

On the Turn I was surprised he called. He definitely could have a better diamond draw/picked up a pair (J?) or added another draw (KT, AK). He's the deepest stack by a wide margin ($1000+) and he doesn't seem to understand basic odds so he could just have a bare flush draw (edit: I shouldn't be surprised that he called considering this, but in the moment I was a little upset with myself and not thinking properly).

I've seen this player call off a little light, so I'm not sure a river bet would fold him out. Which is all the more reason why I hate the way I played this hand. Frankly, I feel like it was pure spew. I should have checked back the turn and seen a free card.

I think this sort of situation is tough on the turn. You can't credibly represent QX any more when you check turn. It may still be the best option but it means giving up on the river when you miss.

In theory I prefer carrying through with the bluff on the turn in this situation because your hand has no show down value. I would be happier checking turn with an ace or king high draw, where catching top pair could be the best hand and you will sometimes beat lower missed draws anyways. Betting turn may fold out better flush draws that are likely to beat you with air on the river. There is also the subtle point that betting turn inflates the pot, setting up a much bigger bluff on the river that will be harder to call, at least in theory. However, if villain is the sort that isn't likely to fold once they call the flop raise, checking and hoping to hit is likely better.

Check turn, don't bet river. If he called with a Q, hes not folding turn and defs not folding river when he hits trips and flushdraw misses. Worse pair will also now less likely fold on the river when the Q pairs

Take the free river card imo. Just makes things easier.

Ya, I hate the preflop call. Too many players behind us to react, will be playing OOP to most, hand also has high RIO, etc.

I don't hate the flop raise. His bet is pretty small especially on a drawy flop, so methinks we have decent FE, although our image obviously ain't gonna help. But we should have decent hand equity and will have options on the turn if we end up in position.

I typically just take my free card on the turn. We got our money in good on the flop, now lets reap the benefits. We also have a FOS image (and we happen to be FOS at the moment). And as you've pointed out, we're now setting ourselves up for perhaps spewing big $$$ with 6 high on the river.

As played, I probably bet the river, a smallish (but big looking) $100. It's possible he was on a flush draw so we can fold those out (which are likely better hands), and he still might have a hard time calling with TT/etc. as we can easily have a Q.

GcluelessNLnoobG

I have no image at this table; I got moved and this was the third hand I've seen (only one I've gone to the flop with). Villain has played with me a couple times but I don't usually get out-of-line. He's always seen me show down strong hands. I guess in the back of my mind I was hoping he would remember that and fold the turn.

I agree that my two big mistakes in this hand were calling pre-flop and betting the turn. I don't hate the flop raise either if I had just used it to get two cards instead of one.

Ah, ok, I misread that. Obviously the less FOS image we have the more we can take a more aggro line.

GIstilltakethepassiveroute,butI'mlikethatG

Now that you've bet the turn (I would have taken the free card), you should follow through on the river with a value-looking bet. Maybe $250.

There is no harm in giving up, though, as long as you just muck.