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1/3 -- getting c/r with pocket AA on a dry flop 1/3 -- getting c/r with pocket AA on a dry flop

04-21-2019 , 12:09 PM
1/3 -- 500 eff
No read from the V. Mid 30 WG, just sat down and this is literally his second hand after he folded his first hand.

H opens MP to 15 with AA, CO, SB, and the V in BB all call.

$60 - Flop
J93

Hero bets 35, folds back to V who raises to 125. H?

Should I bet this flop?
1/3 -- getting c/r with pocket AA on a dry flop Quote
04-21-2019 , 12:19 PM
Yeah I would.

I’d just fold here. He could have J9. 99 33

If he has 108 suited so be it

Might be more inclined to call a smaller raise.

I doubt he is doing this with J10-KJ
1/3 -- getting c/r with pocket AA on a dry flop Quote
04-21-2019 , 12:28 PM
Absolutely bet this flop. And your sizing is fine. No reason to give a free card to 3 opponents.

What I have learned in low stakes NL games, is that very few players checkraise with just a draw or a bluff. They almost always have a pair beat. Plus this is a dry board, with T8 or QT being the only OESD. If you call, what is your plan on the turn unless an A comes? If V has the hand that he's representing, you can assume a $150-200 bet is coming on the turn. You may have to put in your full $500 to see if your hand is good......when it's not probably 90% of the time. You're only $50 invested.


I would just fold. I know it sounds tight, but V probably has a set 75% of the time here....and two pair another 15-20%. You're 3-1 dog against two pair and 9-1 dog against a set.
1/3 -- getting c/r with pocket AA on a dry flop Quote
04-21-2019 , 12:51 PM
Obvious bet on the flop. When a totally unknown villain raises I generally find a tight fold.

There is a group of aggro/bluffy/spewy villains that like to sit down and make a random bluff right off but more commonly your beat. More villains are tight and careful right after sitting down when they don't know anything about you either.
1/3 -- getting c/r with pocket AA on a dry flop Quote
04-22-2019 , 02:13 PM
I don't like going 4ways to the flop with this stack size (will result in small SPR where villains can trivially commit us and yet we gave all of them great IO preflop) so I typically limp in. ETA: Just realized we're deepish at $500 so the SPR is a lot more manageable, so I don't hate having a balanced raising range here (although I believe limping is still perfectly fine).

I'm either/or on the flop. Against more aware opponents I might just check here to underrep my hand to get to showdown. With some payoff morons in the hand I don't hate a small bet, but I'll have to be able to comfortably fold to a raise (which I would do at this point).

GcluelessNLnoobG
1/3 -- getting c/r with pocket AA on a dry flop Quote
04-22-2019 , 02:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard32
Yeah I would.

I’d just fold here. He could have J9. 99 33

If he has 108 suited so be it

Might be more inclined to call a smaller raise.

I doubt he is doing this with J10-KJ
I've seen this done with AJ a lot though.
1/3 -- getting c/r with pocket AA on a dry flop Quote
04-22-2019 , 02:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hitchens97
I've seen this done with AJ a lot though.
I agree. I see this move made so often with top pair. It’s far more common to see sets call on a dry board like this. You will run into 2 pair occasionally but often enough this is a fishy player with TPGK
1/3 -- getting c/r with pocket AA on a dry flop Quote
04-22-2019 , 03:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tdammon
I agree. I see this move made so often with top pair. It’s far more common to see sets call on a dry board like this. You will run into 2 pair occasionally but often enough this is a fishy player with TPGK
I guess everyone's experience differs, but if your opponent is check/raising TP against a someone who has raised preflop and continued into 3 opponents on a drawless flop, then you're playing a pretty awesomely bad opponent.

Gorexpertopponent,probablyafineline,lolG
1/3 -- getting c/r with pocket AA on a dry flop Quote
04-22-2019 , 03:49 PM
I agree with the two aforementioned posts above me... if you 3bet from SB-BB and flop an overpair, a lot of players at my local casinos with reraise with TPTK. This is especially more apparent when the board is two-tone.

Seeing as this is one of the driest boards ever, excluding 108 and Q10 as OESD's, his value range (that we are behind from) is too narrow: J9, 33, 99 and we are extremely ahead of a good portion of his value range JT,QJ,KJ,AJ; ;AJ being the most likely.
1/3 -- getting c/r with pocket AA on a dry flop Quote
04-22-2019 , 05:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by basederic
I agree with the two aforementioned posts above me... if you 3bet from SB-BB and flop an overpair, a lot of players at my local casinos with reraise with TPTK. This is especially more apparent when the board is two-tone.

Seeing as this is one of the driest boards ever, excluding 108 and Q10 as OESD's, his value range (that we are behind from) is too narrow: J9, 33, 99 and we are extremely ahead of a good portion of his value range JT,QJ,KJ,AJ; ;AJ being the most likely.
You really think V is raising with JT? I can see maybe AJ raising, but Hero blocks a lot of that. There are only 6 combos of AJ. There are 3 combos of 33, 3 combos of 99, and 9 combos of J9. So there are 6 combos that are good, and 15 combos that are bad. V needs to be raising a good amount of the time with KJ, QJ, an OESD, or some random bluff for this to be a call.

If a player can checkraise with AJ or worse, he's a loose player. So sure, I would call against a loose player. But Hero hasn't seen V play. Until I see if V can spew with top pair or with draws, I will assume his checkraise is with two pair or better. Sure, it's tight, but Hero only has $50 invested. Rather get more information on how V plays before I put a big chunk of my stack in with just a pair.
1/3 -- getting c/r with pocket AA on a dry flop Quote
04-22-2019 , 05:56 PM
100% bet the flop for value and to thin the field. With no info on the Villian, I flat call the flop. Yes, Villian will have sets and 2 pair some of the time, but I think you can discredit sets because a lot of the time sets flat that board. A good portion of the time, Villian will show up with TPGK or an OP. I have seen this line from KK and QQ before.


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1/3 -- getting c/r with pocket AA on a dry flop Quote
04-22-2019 , 08:55 PM
Bluff frequency goes way up when villain is in the BB and other two players have folded. There’s also plenty of gutter + BDFD combos that people can show up with. Given no reads and he just sat down I don’t hate a tight fold but it’s hard to make a pair Ż\_(ツ)_/Ż
1/3 -- getting c/r with pocket AA on a dry flop Quote
04-22-2019 , 10:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by fightingillini
You really think V is raising with JT? I can see maybe AJ raising, but Hero blocks a lot of that. There are only 6 combos of AJ. There are 3 combos of 33, 3 combos of 99, and 9 combos of J9. So there are 6 combos that are good, and 15 combos that are bad. V needs to be raising a good amount of the time with KJ, QJ, an OESD, or some random bluff for this to be a call.

If a player can checkraise with AJ or worse, he's a loose player. So sure, I would call against a loose player. But Hero hasn't seen V play. Until I see if V can spew with top pair or with draws, I will assume his checkraise is with two pair or better. Sure, it's tight, but Hero only has $50 invested. Rather get more information on how V plays before I put a big chunk of my stack in with just a pair.
Thank you for your response. I would also like to add loose players as well as ****regs never believe when (assumingly OP) winning players are PFR and cbet a Jack-high board. Jack-high boards, for some reason, tend to be the boards that ****regs love to attack and become non-believers. Obviously this is player-dependent and contingent on a myriad of factors: player age, demeanor, table image, etc.

As an (young) aggressive player, I have found that most players actually flat monster hands (JJ+) from SB-BB when I open over "x" amount of limpers in EP - CO, knowing that I cbet at a high frequency. I will cbet on non-paint but draw-heavy boards with an overpair and continually get raised or check-raised from players with TPTK. I think the decision to either flat or fold is completely player-dependent and based on OP's post, I am now rethinking it to be a fold considering it is his second hand.

Thank you for your response fightingillni.
1/3 -- getting c/r with pocket AA on a dry flop Quote
04-23-2019 , 05:03 AM
Almost always betting the flop. What to do vs the raise mostly depends on if I think he raises top pair here. Most 1/3 players won’t have enough actual bluffs here, but some will have those accidental bluffs with hands like QJ/KJ/AJ.

I would lean toward calling flop and evaluating turn but folding isn’t crazy. We are not even getting that bad of a price against J9.
1/3 -- getting c/r with pocket AA on a dry flop Quote
04-24-2019 , 02:37 PM
I agree that given no read it might not be an unreasonable fold
on the flop. I called to reevaluate turn. I was thinking V can have
AJ, JJ, 99, 33, J9 or QT/T8 with BDFD and I was expecting him
to check AJ, continue with all values and QT/T8 if the backdoor comes in.

Turn ($310)
J934
and V snap shoved 360. Easy fold here?
1/3 -- getting c/r with pocket AA on a dry flop Quote
04-24-2019 , 07:37 PM
This is a pretty gross spot IMO. Definitely bet flop. After he raises flop, we're getting ~29% odds on a call, and our equity depends on how many straight draws V has in his range.

If we're assuming V is a tight straightforward player, it may be best to constrain his range to JJ,99,33,and J9, in which case, your equity is <20% and it's a comfortable fold. However,
1) By that same logic, tight straightforward players would be highly inclined to slowplay at least some of their sets on this rainbow board heads up.
2) Even with all combos of J9, 99, and 33 in his range, V only needs 5 out of 32 possible OESD combos in his range to give you >29% equity and a >breakeven call. If his range includes JJ, then he needs 7/32 combos.

He could also be semi-bluffing with gutshots+BDFD like KQ, KT, and T7, or spewing with AJ depending on how aggressive he is, but these seem unlikely. Overall, I like the call on the flop.

On the turn, we're getting 35% odds. Now, with all combos of J9, 99, and 33 in his range, V needs 8 out of 32 possible OESD combos in his range to give you >29% equity and a >breakeven call. If his range includes JJ, then he needs 10/32 combos. While I can see V barreling with hands like KQss, QTss, T8ss, and 87ss, he may often slow down with his draws that failed to pick up additional equity on the turn. Combined with the fact that this is his second hand at the table, I like a fold on the turn. Certainly not easy, but folding seems best here.
1/3 -- getting c/r with pocket AA on a dry flop Quote
05-05-2019 , 02:25 PM
Do we have a final result from the hand?


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1/3 -- getting c/r with pocket AA on a dry flop Quote
05-05-2019 , 07:05 PM
Either make the decision to call and snap call every brick, or fold flop. You’re literally burning more money by calling flop to “decide turn”

Flop is a meh spot, neither option is great but folding cant be terrible. Calling and folding to a every turn or most turn bets is the nutworst
1/3 -- getting c/r with pocket AA on a dry flop Quote

      
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