Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr
I doubt you can profitably raise 77 UTG long term. If you keep track of your results from every time you raise pairs 9s or lower from EP, I bet youre losing money.
Mike gives some of the best advice on here, so I’m hesitant to disagree, but I think at this table as described you *should* be opening 77 UTG. You have two things going for you that makes it profitable here: You’re not going to get 3bet and you can win even if you don’t flop a set. But at your standard 1-3 table, Mike is probably right.
Mike, do you ever limp 77 at 1-3? Or is this basically just a fold?
As for the turn, I think it’s close. He shouldn’t be floating you very thin on the flop, since you were there UTG raiser. That would suggest he has a hand of some sort. So while your hand is vulnerable to over cards, he shouldn’t have a lot of hands like TJ, KQ, AT, etc here that you need to charge. You also have blockers to his gut shots and blockers to his outs if he’s open ended. With all of that, I kind of like the check.
When he checks the river after calling the flop and checking the turn, I expect him to be check/calling a lot. If he was on air, he should have made a play, so he has some sort of hand. The board didn’t run out particularly scary given your expected holding from UTG. Like you said, you shouldn’t have many 7s here, so to a thinking player an ace or king on the river would be scarier than the four-card straight.
Because of all that, I wouldn’t hate an overbet here on the river. It would look like you’re trying to bluff the “scare” card even though he might know that it shouldn’t have helped you. And he has some sort of hand here. Make him make a hero call.
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