General question - how did you come up with VPIP/PFR numbers live so accurately for these players?
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Originally Posted by Solomon_Peabody
1/3, weeknight, 9-handed
Four hands within in the space of about 3 orbits, on an extremely unsuccessful evening (in an extremely bad downswing that's rapidly spiralling)
Hand 1
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Two limpers.
Hero ($325) raises to $22 with AQo
VillainA (25yo Asian male, $1200, 30/25 LAG pro, very aggressive postflop) calls on the button. Blinds fold.
Flop ($54): Q94r
Hero bets $30, VillainA calls
Turn ($114): 6d, bringing 2 diamonds on the board
Hero bets $55, VillainA moves all-in
What do you do?
If you run the numbers, this all depends on whether he has worse top pair in his range or not. Live, I don't think most people are pushing here with KQo or
s. This looks a lot like 44 or 66, considering the limp. I would fold.
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Hand 2
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Three limpers.
Hero ($300) is in the cutoff with Qd Jh and limps.
VillainB (35yo Asian male, 12/8, $200) in the button limps, the SB folds and the BB checks.
Flop (6-way, $19): Js 7s 2d
Checked to Hero, who bets $15. VillainB calls. Others fold.
Turn (HU, $49): 2c
Hero checks, VillainB checks
River (HU, $49): Qs
Hero bets $25, VillainB min-raises to $50
What do you do? Also, what might have been done better earlier?
I would be the turn. As played, I would check/call. Think about what worse hands can call you on this board? Nearly all pairs 88, 99, TT, 44, JX, AX are going to fold. A lot of them will bluff this river card, if you check. You are pretty much expecting value from a Q or some station KJ kind of hands. Rest of villian's range is flushes and rarely boats, trips and quads.
If you take all that into account, this is a clear check call. As played, I would call the min-raise, as it's too small to fold.
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Hand 3
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VillainC (25yo Asian male, $260, 20/10) limps, Hero ($300) limps behind with 3-3. Two other limpers and the BB checks.
Flop (5-way, $15): 7d 4d 3c
VillainC bets $15, Hero calls and there are two additional callers.
Turn (4-way, $75): Qh
Checked to Hero who bets $50 and only VillainC calls.
River (HU, $175): 8d
VillainC checks, Hero bets $60. VillainC shoves.
What do you do? What better lines might there have been earlier?
Raise flop. It's a pot bet, start building the pot and get it in right here, if you can. You are only behind higher sets and straight. There are many worse hands like gutshots with flush draws etc.
As played, fold the river. Check/raise on river live is super strong. Hate to fold sets, but you gotta do it here.
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Hand 4
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This hand immediately follows Hand 3.
Hero ($300) and quickly raises to $25 with QQ UTG in apparent anger. Someone else on the table says "you're on tilt".
VillainD ($150, 70yo white male, 45/5 fish) in MP moves all-in.
All other players fold. VillainD has raised two hands in 5 hours, cold-called every other 3bet pre and is about 5 buyins down for the session.
What do you do?
Snap. Unless, you have live reads, this is too strong a hand to fold and it's only 50BB.