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Old 06-24-2014, 07:41 PM   #1
Zohren
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1/3 Flopped Top Set

Been at the table an hour or so.
Stack $230, hardly played any hands. Horribly card dead. Haven't raised once.

A few regs, Villain is a pretty tight passive reg. Seen him play a bunch, pretty bad player overall.

Villain limps UTG, stack $205 after limping.
Hero raises to $15 with ThTs UTG+1
2 callers.

Pot: $59 (after rake)

Flop is Tc 9s 3c

Villain checks.
Hero bets $45.
Folded to villain who thinks for a while then calls.

Pot now $139, Hero has $170 behind, villain has $148.

Turn: Qd.

Villain checks.
Hero bets $70.

Villain thinks for a while and calls.

Pot: $279

River Kc.
Villain shoved for $78.

Pot $357, costs me $78 to call.

Hero ?

I pretty much wanted to puke with this river. About the only card other than the 8c that I really didn't want to see. I set this up to try and get all his money on the river. I'm being offered just over 4.5 to 1 on my money with a hand that I'm pretty sure can't be ahead here. Only hands I'm really beating here are 99 and 33, but can I really fold correctly here with these odds?
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Old 06-24-2014, 07:47 PM   #2
iraisetoomuch
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Re: 1/3 Flopped Top Set

Meh, It'd bet turn bigger.
And possibly flop.

Stack sizes are bit weird, but if we pot the flop we can PSB shove the turn and get stacks in in two streets.
$55 on the flop leaves us with $138 left on the turn into a pot of $159. Seems about right.
Or you can go $50 on the flop and shove $143 into $149 on the turn. But yeah, look to get stacks in here on 2 streets. If we are any shorter it's 100% a 2 street hand. If stacks get more than $50 bigger then we can think about sizing to gii on 3 streets instead.
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Old 06-24-2014, 07:52 PM   #3
Tilty_McDonkawhirl
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Re: 1/3 Flopped Top Set

So sick. That same bs happens to me where I flop a set and bet flop & turn only to have a run out giving a 4 straight/flush. If I'm OOP and check the rig and V bets or if I'm IP and V bets, I know I'm dead. I've been building the pot for a nonchalant river jam, so I have similar odds as you, but it just didn't go my way.

In MY experience, V is usually calling with a pair+GS, pair+FD, or FD+OESD (if he's that bad not to raise with this OTF).

Unless V is a chronic bluffer, you're beat. Think you might have to pay off just to be sure. Obviously, you've considered the flip side. V is getting pretty amazing odds on a value bluff. I don't think there's any chance he's thin value betting two pair or worse sets, but he may have turned his one pair/busted draw or two pair into a bluff. Gross spot, sorry.
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Old 06-24-2014, 07:54 PM   #4
TeachMeSomething
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Call. Shove turn
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Old 06-24-2014, 08:02 PM   #5
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You need to be good OTR one out of every 5.5 times. This is a difficult fold, but still a fold. A tight passive reg just donk jammed AI OTR when the obvious draw comes in. Fold.

Betting full pot OTF sets up a nice pot sized shove OTT, so that's some missed value and makes the hand easier to play.
As played, OTT you really need to just GII. Your bet of $70 offers the V 3-1 to call. That's a little too enticing for my taste.
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Old 06-24-2014, 08:06 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tilty_McDonkawhirl View Post
So sick. That same bs happens to me where I flop a set and bet flop & turn only to have a run out giving a 4 straight/flush. If I'm OOP and check the rig and V bets or if I'm IP and V bets, I know I'm dead. I've been building the pot for a nonchalant river jam, so I have similar odds as you, but it just didn't go my way.

In MY experience, V is usually calling with a pair+GS, pair+FD, or FD+OESD (if he's that bad not to raise with this OTF).

Unless V is a chronic bluffer, you're beat. Think you might have to pay off just to be sure. Obviously, you've considered the flip side. V is getting pretty amazing odds on a value bluff. I don't think there's any chance he's thin value betting two pair or worse sets, but he may have turned his one pair/busted draw or two pair into a bluff. Gross spot, sorry.
So you think it's possible that a tight passive 1/2nl reg C/Ced 2 streets and then decides to super underbluff AI the river after all the draws have hit?
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Old 06-24-2014, 08:15 PM   #7
dunderstron!
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If only one of the draws hit, and your villain was smart, I'd call so he can't bluff ghost outs for super cheap in the future.

Since neither of these appear to be the case, just fold. If we fold we win $78. Be content that you played the hand 100% perfectly.
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Old 06-24-2014, 08:28 PM   #8
venice10
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Re: 1/3 Flopped Top Set

It comes down how frequently will he will do this without the flush. If it is more than 18% of the time, then you call.

This is one of those situations where in the end, the EV is close enough to zero either direction that you aren't making much of a mistake. I'd just call because he made lost Sklansky bucks by calling this down. I don't mind if he collects $78 by me putting in my money bad when he put in $115 bad.
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Old 06-24-2014, 08:36 PM   #9
eldiesel
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Re: 1/3 Flopped Top Set

I was ready to say fold before I noticed the river was a club. That it's a club makes it a very easy fold. c/c, c/c, lead - you're almost never good against that line without the nuts.

The turn bet was big enough to price out flush draws, you gave V 25% on his money and a fd has just about 18-20%. But if he's willing to call more, definitely go as big as you think you can. Another reason to go bigger is a combo draw has more equity (obv) than a naked fd, but combo draws are likely on this board. So if V had K5cc, you barely priced him out, and that is also contingent on zero IO.
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Old 06-24-2014, 09:07 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by venice10 View Post
It comes down how frequently will he will do this without the flush. If it is more than 18% of the time, then you call.

This is one of those situations where in the end, the EV is close enough to zero either direction that you aren't making much of a mistake. I'd just call because he made lost Sklansky bucks by calling this down. I don't mind if he collects $78 by me putting in my money bad when he put in $115 bad.
I agree that neither folding or calling can be much, if any, of a mistake. Although I still prefer a fold. But if we call the river bet then we gave the V proper implied odds to call the turn. Actually, $8 over...
OP, your biggest take away from this thread ought to be that while you played the hand fine, either a larger flop or turn bet will still likely get called, denies proper implied odds, and make the hand easier to play. An extra $5 bet OTF would amplify all future rounds of betting. Actually making a turn shove about a pot sized bet. Or at the very least let you bet $80 OTT instead of $70, which would change the river ratio and make it an easy call.
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Old 06-24-2014, 09:11 PM   #11
JoeyyyyyG
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Re: 1/3 Flopped Top Set

I think I would have bet closer to 100$ on the turn. As played fold river
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Old 06-24-2014, 09:12 PM   #12
Zohren
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Thanks guys.

In the end I made the crying call and villain flipped JhJd for the runner-runner straight.

I unintentionally laughed out loud when he got upset later on when he doubled up another player when he walked his TT into KK and acted like he got sucked out on.

Then I proceeded to stack off again with another flopped set later.

Done with poker for a while.
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Old 06-24-2014, 09:18 PM   #13
dunderstron!
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Quote:
Originally Posted by venice10 View Post
It comes down how frequently will he will do this without the flush. If it is more than 18% of the time, then you call.

This is one of those situations where in the end, the EV is close enough to zero either direction that you aren't making much of a mistake. I'd just call because he made lost Sklansky bucks by calling this down. I don't mind if he collects $78 by me putting in my money bad when he put in $115 bad.
Gotta disagree with you here Venice.

Did you miss the four to a straight on the board? No way we are good here 18% of the time.

Not even close. We are good here about 0-1% of the time. Calling here is a ~$78 mistake.

Caveat: perhaps he's sophisticated/stupid enough to bluff the busted lower end of the straight. Nah, that's too theoretical.

If our $78 is guaranteed when he catches the river that means he was getting 4.1 : 1 on the turn which is ~break even for his draws. We can win this hand by not giving him the implied odds he thought he had (although I would've liked betting a little more than just half the pot on the turn.)

Don't really like the way you are thinking about sklansky bucks either. :/ The amount we put into the pot while ahead is a huge victory. Now let's seal the victory by folding when he catches. Don't forget the fundamental theorem of poker.

I might not find the fold in the heat of battle. I probably just look at his bet, look at the pot, roll my eyes and call, knowing I got sucked out on. But folding is clearly the correct play.
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Old 06-24-2014, 09:26 PM   #14
eldiesel
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Re: 1/3 Flopped Top Set

Quote:
Originally Posted by dunderstron! View Post
Caveat: perhaps he's sophisticated/stupid enough to bluff the busted lower end of the straight. Nah, that's too theoretical.
100% level.
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Old 06-25-2014, 12:58 AM   #15
OSUTexan
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Re: 1/3 Flopped Top Set

The Q hitting the turn makes the board extremely wet for Villain's calling range....best play in this spot is to put villain-all in and let him make a mistake by calling with all pair+sd type hands.

As played, I'm folding the river. We screwed ourselves by betting so small on turn and letting villain get there....river puts out flush on board and 4 card straight draw which is all over V's range...just let it go on river and fold.
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Old 06-25-2014, 01:11 AM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by venice10 View Post
It comes down how frequently will he will do this without the flush. If it is more than 18% of the time, then you call.
Or JX...
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Old 06-25-2014, 01:32 PM   #17
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Re: 1/3 Flopped Top Set

If the table is super loose, not shortstacked, and a raise is unlikely to narrow the field, then I wouldn't hate an overlimp. If we are raising, I would target the villain's stack and raise to $20 so that I can stack off postflop on an overpair.

Flop is quite drawy. With these stacks, I would PSB the flop in order to shove the turn. Our bet was too small in my opinion as it leaves a little bit of an overbet shove for the turn, and this isn't the type of board we're cool with stringing things out over 3 streets.

Even as played, I would just shove the turn.

In the end, we've gotten ourselves into a weird spot in that we've given the villain ok odds to chase while at the same time leaving so little behind that we can never fold thanks to pot odds even on scary cards, which means villain's implied odds against us are decent. Card is one of the suckiest in the deck, so I guess we can maybe manage a fold (although it's possible he backed into two pair), but we shouldn't put ourselves in this situation, imo.

GcluelessNLnoobG
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