Quote:
Originally Posted by venice10
It comes down how frequently will he will do this without the flush. If it is more than 18% of the time, then you call.
This is one of those situations where in the end, the EV is close enough to zero either direction that you aren't making much of a mistake. I'd just call because he made lost Sklansky bucks by calling this down. I don't mind if he collects $78 by me putting in my money bad when he put in $115 bad.
Gotta disagree with you here Venice.
Did you miss the four to a straight on the board? No way we are good here 18% of the time.
Not even close. We are good here about 0-1% of the time. Calling here is a ~$78 mistake.
Caveat: perhaps he's sophisticated/stupid enough to bluff the busted lower end of the straight. Nah, that's too theoretical.
If our $78 is guaranteed when he catches the river that means he was getting 4.1 : 1 on the turn which is ~break even for his draws. We can win this hand by not giving him the implied odds he thought he had (although I would've liked betting a little more than just half the pot on the turn.)
Don't really like the way you are thinking about sklansky bucks either. :/ The amount we put into the pot while ahead is a huge victory. Now let's seal the victory by folding when he catches. Don't forget the fundamental theorem of poker.
I might not find the fold in the heat of battle. I probably just look at his bet, look at the pot, roll my eyes and call, knowing I got sucked out on. But folding is clearly the correct play.