Saturday 05:00 am @ Jack's (Hard Rock) Cincinnati
Hero (MAWG) sat at $1/3 for 2 hours starting at 01:30 am, only showing premium pairs establishing TAG image. Table breaks and hero moved at 03:30, establishing same image at a 6 handed table (Seat 4)
V1 - Left of Hero (Seat 6). Loose $2/5 player. Late 20's Indian descent. Consistent UTG straddle and Button straddle. Raises straddle 40% of the time and c-bets straddle 85% of the time. Wide opening range in SB/BB but only continues with flop connection or premium draw. V1 folds 50% with XR or river donk bet if he was the primary aggressor in position for the hand. Hero and V1 have played a number of hands with hero winning 75%, only about 30% going to showdown.
V2 - Right of Hero (Seat 1). Tight $2/5 player. TT+/AJ-AKs/some mid range suited connecters. Occasionally floats 1 street and folds on 2 barrels. Calls straddle 50% of the time, but mostly a fit or fold player.
V1 check, V2 check, Hero bets $65 expecting V1 to call, which he does. V2 fold.
Pot $217
Turn: 6
V1 check, Hero bets $135, V1 calls
Pot $487
River: J
V1 check, Hero??
Pre seems a bit small, would go somewhere between $30-$35. As you are in position $30 is probably fine, but $25 seems too low.
I like the flop-bet, as any overpair are gonna stay in.
On turn the pot is $217 and Villain has $560 behind. I like your turn-sizing as well, as that will leave him with $425 behind for the river. Could maybe go slightly bigger ($150-$175), as turn doesn't really change anything and he should still hold on with an overpair to the board.
Tempted to just shove the river. With Villain being aggressive and in SB, we have to assume he 3! a hand like JJ pre a lot of the time. And that's almost the only hand you are losing to.
He might be tempted to call down with any full house, if he thinks you are capable of trying to push him off a mediocre pair. I think a bet of $200 will likely look too value-ish on your part, given your image. So a shove it is.