Hero in the CO. Villain in MP. Villain is young, in town for the holiday, has been drinking, and playing loose passive. Not a total drooler--he wasn't playing any two cards, he adjusts bet sizes for the size of the pot, and he pays attention to hand action and opponent tendencies. I know this due to his constant talking. Hero has been aggressive and looser than normal, especially in late position, as the players to my left were tight and I felt great about playing postflop with the villains to my right. I had made multiple 3 bets, one with AQs OTB the prior orbit where I showed down and chopped a pot with top-top. Effective stacks ~$350. Hero covers.

Preflop: Villain open limps, HJ limps, folded to hero in CO who raises to $16 with A5o. Folded to villain who calls. HJ also calls.

Flop($52): AcQh5h. Checked to hero who bets $40, villain calls, HJ folds.

Turn ($132): Kd. Checked to hero who bets $120. Now, at the time, I did this to set up a river shove as long as a heart, jack, or ten didn't appear on the river. But as villain tanked, I found myself questioning my plan if villain shoved or simply called and either bet or checked river. Am I crazy? What should I do if one of those scare cards hits the river and villian open shoves? What if one hits and villain checks? Was my original plan sound?

PF and Flop are fine with me .. especially 3-ways you want to charge a price to draws, maybe even $45 here? This depends on your c-bet history. Are you all of a sudden protecting a hand here or can V expect this to be semi-bluff?

Turn gets a little more dicey but basically the same ideas. Most V will expect you to have a made hand now (2pr plus) without any previous tendency to bet a flush draw this way. $120 is a bit steep, but if you feel that V will call with worse then you need to go for it based on your original plan.

What would V do with AK/AQ (even KQ) PF? Was he 3-betting anything? Certainly would expect an opening raise with AK, yes? Or was he counting on you to raise?

With only 170 (372+170 pot) behind you really don't have much FE (with a made hand), so V can't expect too many folds from you if he shoves a draw.

Would Turn K keep V from betting AQ? Do you have Ah?

I don't think you are facing sets here .. only Ax/Kx draws, 2 pair, straight. You are about the middle of the pack against that range of hands IMO.

1) V shoves ... call it off
2) Blank River, V checks ... shove it in, put him to another test
3) Blank River, V bets, call it off
4) Scary River, V checks ... check for showdown unless live tell gives green light to shove. (least happy with this option)
5) Scary River, V bets, probably sigh calling unless live tell says otherwise.

If V calls Turn I think both of you are pot committed and he realizes this and is trying to figure out whether to shove or not.

I am putting both of you on the same range of hands but want to eliminate some strong Ax hands from V, but I don't have the history to know if I can or can't. Saying this I think you are in this until the end without some other reason to stop betting/calling.

Your issue here is whether or not V will ever put you on draws here with this betting line. IF NOT, then you are probably in trouble unless V is willing to call off when severely priced not to call off. GL

I'd probably only open a hand as terrible as A5 in LP after 0 limpers, or possibly 1 limper with tight blinds. After 2 limpers, at least at my table, there is just too good a chance we're going to go multiway, so we'd better have some sort of playable hand (and this ain't one). I fold preflop.

Lolz, nice flop, well played.

SPR is 7ish which means we can play for stacks with ~3/4 PSBs on each street (and unless board runs out pretty gross, we're probably going to have to play for stacks). I'd probably also size my flop bet larger thanks to drawyness of board.

Is Villain type to limp call AK? Heck, against loose raiser us, he might even be limping in that to reraise preflop (I know I would). What about a hand like AQ? A hand that commonly shows up here is KQ for a lot of opponents, and we're ahead of that. Unless Villain has JThh, we should still be ahead. I'm continuing thru with my commitment plan. I don't think the turn bet has to be as big (we still want weak Ax hands like AJ/AT to call), but whatever.

On the river, I fold if he shoves a scare card. Our hand looks like a big hand here (we can easily have a huge set / two pair), so I really think a shove on a scare card is for value against these hands. If he checks a scare card, I probably check behind. He could easily have AJ/AT that backed into a straight / better two pair and obviously a flush draw; we're basically only missing value from KQ / worse A and those might not even pay off that much anyways. On a blank, I'm calling a shove or shoving myself.

GcluelessNLnoobG

What is the best way to get Hero to part with his chips when Hero plays in this manner?

I think your pause for thought was well timed, I hope you heeded yourself and modified your play after this hand was over..

A5o is super loose but fine if we're this deep I think. I'd make it less than 120$ OTT, at my tables no one is calling 120$ with less than 2pair here and you're only ahead of KQ (assuming he doesn't limp call with K5 or Q5). I'd make it like half pot OTT and if a scare card hits then some blocker bet OTR like 1/3 pot. Sameish price but easier to jump ship maybe?

fold pre

In response to some comments so far, I do believe villain would raise AK there. I could see him limping AQ/KQ. I don't think he was clever enough to set a limp/reraise trap for me. And I do believe he could see this as a semi-bluff on my part.

I think my turn sizing was too big as some pointed out. I think that doubt regarding my plan was likely already slipping in and I wanted to more or less pot commit myself/hopefully end the hand rather than get value out of Ax and draws. Have to think I'm getting value or coolered if he has any other made hands unless I read it as a cooler and hero-fold to his c/r or a river shove.

And yes, folding pre, perhaps I should've. But again, we were deep, I felt good playing these guys postflop with position, and thought there was a good chance of going HU or, at most, 3 ways since the players to my left were so tight.

We're not actually all that deep (just over 100bbs). And with the raise and going 3ways, the SPR is actually a fairly small 6.4 (which can actually setup some rather gross situations if we only flop TP).

Gthisisnotdeeppoker,imoG

I actually like the turn sizing esp if you weren't holding the Ah. I get the idea of betting smaller to keep in KJ-type hands, but I think this is a spot where betting big actually keeps plenty of his flop c-range while serving to reduce the likelihood of being ck-r with drawy stuff. This V likely is likely more interested in ck-c hero's super nutty perceived range with draws and is unlikely "good enough" to fold QK, AJ/AT (folds sometimes), and won't be ck-r Axhh either given this perceived range. Yeah V could even have Ak/AQ that he wasn't sure what to do with on flop or turn, but I don't expect a ck-R from that too often either as described.

Im also not convinced by above responses that Hero can bet any rivers (outside of Ax/5x) and get called by worse after V ck-c turn for any mid to large sizing. A5 is at its weakest point on all rivers IMO, and VB is going to be thinner here vs V ck-c range than on the turn... Which also makes me want to size larger on the prior street.

I'm never playing for top pair here. Would fold or check an A high flop without the 5. The plan was to take it down pre or cbet dry boards that weren't A high or had two broadway cards if called.

You mentioned getting coolered... You're coolering yourself by smashing rivers with A5o, so I don't think you can chalk it up to variance if he ck-c better

Ah yes, forgot that. Did not have Ah

Yes I suppose that's true. Hearts, any paint, any 10, the potential he has AK/AQ, or that he improves with what I thought to be blanks, all looks ugly.

OP might have to clarify, but I get the impression Hero's image is loose and aggro and Villain is aware of that. Based on this I'm guessing we can get looked up fairly widely on the river (especially on a blank).

Gno?G

This is true, but still, a lot of rivers are terrible for me as I said above. I'd still be betting any blanks though of course.

120bb is not deep.

Opening for a raise A-rag-o is optimistic 200bb+. At 120bb its spew.

But w/e you have a great flop.

Since u opened to $16 and its 3 ways on a dripping flop, the minimum I'm betting is $75, looking to stack off otf.

As played to the turn, probably try to see a cheap river.

That turn card is the nut low.

So many guys on here bet pot every street with good hands, you let V get away from **** hands and own yourself when V has better. I hate the new mtt strategy of just min raising all the time, I still go big pre for fat value, but postflop I keep most of my sizing between half and 2/3 pot. Triple digits ott is huge, you're letting all worse hands fold, even draws will fold, you can price out draws for a smaller amount and make it unlikely they fold.

Save your $100 bets ott for bluffs, it'll scare the $hit out of people.

Yes the turn sizing does seem to delve into fold out worse/value own myself territory. I'm disappointed I wasn't more composed there. More of an emotional than a cerebral bet imo

Meh, I actually don't think it's too bad; it's a bit large, but whatever. I think we're committed and looking to get in stacks (imo) and the river can have a crapload of gross cards; betting on the larger side on the turn ain't a big mistake by any means.

We're basically targetting Ax and KQ type hands as well as megadraws and, if I understand our image correctly, I'm not convinced this guy is folding those hands to any reasonable (i.e. upwards of PSB) bet size.

GcluelessNLnoobG

The results aren't really important as far as my questions/issues go, but the villain in this hand ended up tank folding after commenting on how he must be behind for me to bet like that.

GG, good points about the turn sizing. I believe my play is being affected by having a terrible run of cards this past month and that makes me think I'm betting too large to avoid suckouts. It boiled over last night as I never recall my dreams yet after playing a maniac like a fiddle twice, and no justice being served twice, I had two nightmares this morning about being sucked out on lol.

Understanding this and processing this will help me stay grounded and win this mental battle.

^ Probably not, to both. It's completely normal when flopping 2 pr. that your hand's RELATIVE value declines thereafter. And in fact you should be worried somewhat even if the stacks go in on the flop, when the relative value is generally high.

In other words, these are typically WAWB situations, even if you are WA much more often than WB. Proceed cautiously if villain gives an unusual amount of action, when you flop 2 pr. that is not top two.

For those villains who habitually overplay top pair, willing to go to the felt, your plan is fine.