H is in his 2nd hand at this must move game, image is clean and the game seems to be limp/cally pre.


2 ep limps, H (350) makes it 25 with AK blinds call, both ep limpers call.

F(125): J87
blinds check, ep (covers H) leads for 75, fold, on to H. Ep is not a reg, might be once in a while player. Played with him at the feeder game and he was calling behind, l/c pre more so than raising/3betting. His 75 lead was almost instant, i'd say he took about 5-6 seconds. Furthermore, at the table I didn't think this was a Jx donk, it felt more like 2p, sets+ donk.

What's best here with hour hand? If I was certain my overs were live this is an easy gii, I don't think they are since I think this guy might not be leading Jx and likley doens't limp QQ/KK

I'm pretty much always calling here

Smooth call if he has a decent sized stack. Otherwise I fold. I'm never shipping here.

I mostly overlimp to reraise in EP/MP (I't unclear where we are). Stacks are kinda awkward for raise sizing. They're too big to raise huge to setup a comfortable stack off situation. But they're barely big enough to raise much smaller to thin the field and still create a playable SPR (which is why I'm fine with limping and even don't hate it when my limp/reraise fails as this hand plays so well multiway in a high SPR pot).

I think preflop has more-or-less destined us to play for stacks on this flop. There's already $200 in the pot, and if we just flat we'll only have $250 left in a $275 pot. Big hands often go for check/raises (although admittedly not all the time, especially this multiway). I just ship it. We have some FE against the weaker end of things and should have decent hand equity against most non-monsters (and even against monsters we can still win).

Gmadeourbedpreflop,imoG

I'm fine with people going with their gut, so just flat. (And 5 to 6 seconds in poker isn't instant )

In game, though, I'd probably raise.

definitely not raising. gonna need to improve on the turn if we don't bink the flush, so not crazy about calling. folding is probably not such a bad idea since V is probably going to blast the turn if the flush whiffs. fine with either, but not a good spot against a V who is never bluffing here.

OP; please provide stack sizes next time.

I think we have IO to make a call here if H is the eff stack. So I'm calling hoping we pick up some equity on the turn but I'm not loving it. At least we're in position. Folding isn't a sin either.

You guys, H has $350 and V covers.

Grunching:

Call the flop. The pot is offering almost 3-1. You have a 20% chance of hitting the flush on the turn. That's not all that far from being good enough, and you have implied odds as well. If others fold and V slows down on the turn with J-x, you can blow him off his hand by shoving your 15 out draw.

The risk is that one the three others left to act may check-raise you off your hand. At $75, it's worth the risk IMO. There is also the possibility that V is betting a weaker FD. (Sizing is right for it.) Sounds like he's not the kind of guy to shove his busted draw on the river, so Ka-Ching! if this is the case.

Grunching: 20%? Really? How do you figure 20%?

As for the hand, 5-6 seconds to make a decision seems pretty normal to me. He also had all the time that the blinds took to make their decision. I don’t think you can only put him on 2pr+ here.

I’m fine with calling or shoving personally.

Might be better to flat and hope there’s more calls. I don’t think you have much FE if you shove here, but you have more than you think.

Actually, 19.1% to hit nine outs on the turn. Sorry, I should be more precise about these things...

https://www.cardplayer.com/poker-tools/odds-and-outs

lol.
Oh, I get it.

You’re completely discounting any possibility that an Ace or King might be a good card for us here. Checks out then.

Thanks!

Do you mind telling us why you might consider raising here? I was thinking the same thing but was too chicken to bring it up.

Thanks in advance!

People donk here with dumb one pair hands all the time, so ship is standard, but if you’re sure it’s 2 pair+ I guess flat and hope to bink the turn and get a sigh call?

Why would we ever consider raising here if we assume there is no fold equity from the main V?

It should either be fold (if there are no IO), or smooth call.

The most ideal situation is calling and having everybody else blow their loads and getting their chips in. Hero will definitely have 3:1 at that point.

We are assuming Hero must hit his flush in order to win, so the more people the merrier.

It's not that there is no fold equity on the flop. It's just that we have position, and villain is very passive. We are going to have a much better idea of how much fold equity we have after we see what villain does on the turn. Better to commit our stack then and avoid shoving into a straight or set.

My understanding of OP's post is that Villain should have two-pair or better here, which I equate to no FE.

He didn't say he knew it. He just thought it from table dynamics and his read on V, which you have to give credence. Still, what this does is alter our weightings on V's range. I don't think OP is telling he was certain of anything. He just says that alarm bells are going off in his head.

Hey Spanish, say whatcha think man. Who cares what random strangers think.

The benefit of raise/jam here is that you maximize FE, while guaranteeing yourself that you get paid off all the times when you DO hit your NFD here.

As opposed to the passive route, which generally minimizes risk/reward. You’ll notice that when flush draws hit on the turn it almost always checks around/kills action.

In addition to this, very few players have the confidence to shove turns as a semi-bluff when they miss OTT. So the hands play very face up/straightforward.

Fair enough.

Then based on your logic and mine, I think calling makes even more sense than raising.

H called, BB shipped for 85, ep and H calls 10 more. Turn 2d, ep puts H all-in for 240.

Fold? Call?

instamuck. have to pick up some kind of equity with the turn to justify calling the turn. calling the flop was not that good considering how shallow we are.

I consider raising the flop because V could be donking a lot of hands and I might have some fold equity and my overs might be good. Also, I'm often willing to gamble basically 100bb with the nut flush draw. However, if OP is sure of his read, flatting is fine and probably wise. I'm all about table reads, gut feelings, etc. They rarely let me down.

As played, turn is a fold.

If I've mathed right dude has shoved $240 into $380, so we're only getting about 2.5:1. Good chance we only have our flush outs (some of which might be tainted / sucked up) in this protected pot, so looks like a fold at this point.

But I'm still not convinced we should be building huge pots like this and sticking in a huge 1/3rd our stack and not even realize our equity, which is partly why I feel not shoving flop is pretty meh.

GforumaggrotardG

Just gii otf; spr super low and you dont wanna face a jam ott