Villain (CO): middle aged Latino, tight passive; raised $33 in SB with QQ over a few limpers and check shoved for $250 on Q94r three ways facing a bet and call (covers)

Hero (MP): late 20s Asian, TAG image ($300)

Hero opens $15 with AK. Villain calls in CO. BTN calls and BB calls.

Flop: KJ4 ($56)

Checked to hero. Hero bets $35. Villain snap raises to $100. Folded back to hero. Hero ???

This guy's range is basically KJ+. Against that range I have less than 40% equity which is roughly what is needed to get it in. If he's doing something weird though at some %, I have it. Being OOP, I think all three options are on the table here. $65 to call $126 my direct odds are not good. A king is for sure not a clean out. He slows down on hearts probably and even if an ace is good he might slow down. So my implied odds are not good either especially being OOP. Shoving into a range that I don't have the equity to get it in with can't be a good idea. So that leaves...a fold? How do I flop the world and have to fold? So sick.

Your read is your read but it seems like you're giving the villain a lot of credit. Both in that he ~100% has a better hand than you (can't he have the 9c Tc, Qc Tc, AA, or another AK?) and that he will react perfectly to all turn cards. Like you say he'll slow down on "hearts" (I assume you mean clubs here) but why is it impossible that a 3rd club will make him lead out big to price out your lone ace of clubs? With your exact read I guess you have to fold but if your read is even a bit off and you will get value if an ace or a club falls then I think you need to call here.

Wow, this V would have to be "GG in the flesh" for me to even remotely consider folding here. Pot will be $126 after he calls the $35 and $65 more to you so you are getting roughly 2-1 to call. While I agree that shoving is probably somewhat of an overplay, you really aren't doing that badly even against a lower set here so I wouldn't fault you for the play all that much given that V will have other hands in his range. Could he do this with QT?

For me at 100 bigs, this comes down to whether I can stack him later him I hit an Ace or a club. You seem to think you have zero fold equity if you shove so that plays a role as well. Ihe he will call off with a set or KJ if an Ace comes, then I prefer a call here. If he won't, then I think I just GII maybe taking slightly the worst of it (you also have a small amount of BD str8 equity too).

Alternatively, you could flat and shove all turns...this would be better if you were deeper but again given you range this guy so tight and pretty much inly on value, I don't like that play.

As long as you didn't fold, I don't think you can make a big mistake either way here.

I'm either/or preflop from MP with AKs. I think limp/reraising AKs from almost any position is still a good and viable play (and if limps around it still plays perfectly fine as well). Actually not too thrilled with our result (low SPR < 5 where it will be very difficult not to stack off against 3 opponents whom we gave 23+ IO, OOP to 2 of them).

Kinda weird spot on the flop. With the low SPR and flopping the world we could just consider ourselves committed and PSB+ to shove the turn. The problem is that unless you are up against some real morons (ex. KQ) it's unlikely you're getting in the money very good if someone decides to want to do that with you. If the SPR was way higher we could play this a lot more passively (not working towards stack commitment until we actually hit better than just one pair, not afraid of draws, etc.); but with this SPR, I kinda think we've made our bed and now have to lie in it.

GcluelessNLnoobG

That a pretty small world if you are considering folding.

You have 9 clean outs out of 47 unseen cards even if you are crushed. Though are ahead some as well. You are calling 65 into 190ish about 3:1, and discounting that he has some club combos, or other AK (that you are free rolling), or Kx, or other combo draws you are beating, in range, and discounting any implied odds should you hit. You could be correct, just feels too mubsy.

He likely raise KK maybe JJ pf so I even discount some set combos

He may play two pair, set this way, but even if his cards were face up, I would find a call on the flop at minimum. RRAI also is plausible though gambly. I call....

I'm never folding unless he turned his cards up and showed me a set.

I like calling and checking all turns. If I'm unimproved and he jams I can probably fold.

Grunch.

The pot odds are (56+35+100):65, which is 3:1. So you are getting direct odds to draw to only the club and Ace outs. Folding is therefore out of the question, as KJ is his most likely holding.

I would also need a strong read to rule AK out of a tight passive live fish's range in this spot. Adding the other AK's to his range, against which we are free rolling, improves our equity dramatically.

Oh yeah true. Good thing I ended that session cause clearly too tired to math properly at the time of writing OP. You are right about AK. And if that's the case and I have some fold equity vs AK I have the equity to just get it in to deny him his positional advantage. I think not all the combos are there though cause he will 3 bet AK at some frequency preflop (not a high frequency though cause he's passive). Could be AA, but probably not cause someone who check shoved top set cause they were "afraid of the straight draw" is not flatting AA pre. I am certain that this is never a bluff and even if I'm wrong about that it's like two combos of combo draws.

With V having nothing but 2pr/sets you have 33.7% equity vs. KJ/44/JJ/KK. If he has QTs, you have 47.9% equity, and that's with any suited QT, not just QT, so it's 4 combos, not 1. So, the question is: "Do you feel lucky? Well.....do ya'?"

He don't have KK willing to bet my bankroll he 3 bets that pre given the previous HH. Probably doesn't raise with non club QT.

I shove all day in your spot and 4 times on Saturday! He's tight-passive? then how do you know he doesn't have AK and just called pre with it. Never folding!

All in.

Treating it as a disaster if villains have implied odds to call with speculative hands makes it pretty tough to devise a counterstrategy. Who cares if they can set mine? It's not worth sacrificing building the pot with a range advantage just to keep the SPR sufficiently high we can auto stackoff without thought or sufficiently low we can just weakly give up without nutted hands.

GG what do you expect villains do with KQ here? Fold? I don't see that happening ever except on really nasty runouts. If they called preflop with KQ and made top pair we are getting some money. If your point was a raise with KQ would be unusual then I agree.

As for the hand I think we can size up our flop bet on this texture. Before you bet always be aware of stack sizes and what happens if you get raised. IMO if we bet larger and get raised our decision is probably easier.

If I don't know much about villain I probably just rip it in. Or if he's competent or aggressive and capable of pounding position. If he's typical tight passive I don't expect him to keep betting unless we are beat so I just call and try to bink a club. Our A and K outs may or may not be good (particularly K) but if our K out is in fact good we can probably x when it hits and have villain check back when we're ahead, then thin value bet river, so although we may not have much IO with those outs they're still worth something.

So we determined you're getting right price & that V is always raising pre with KK+. I'm wondering what that 2nd combo draw is in addition to QT. Is it Q9?

Even if he’s really tight passive your still not in terrible shape. Let’s assume your opponent is too passive to do this with a club or straight draw. So King Jack seems like the most likely hands as he check shoved a set earlier. This may be close to be honest. However, if I were to chose between calling, shoving, or folding.... I think I would lean toward shoving. If you call and another club rolls off your not getting the rest of his stack, and I just don’t feel folding is right here often enough to make this laydown.

Fewer than 9 against sets, a good portion of the crushing range (6 combos of 15, ruling out KK), but more against KJ. Regardless, I agree folding here is crazy. You would have to know this player extremely well to even consider it, but the OP doesn't mention knowing this guy extremely well so it's not part of my read. There's always some uncertainty and you don't need much here.

I'd probably call down unimproved. At these stacks a river fold for either one of you shouldn't ever be reasonable. No value in a shove, no bluffing in a shove. The only time it matters if

1) he does have better than AK, you don't improve, and he bets tiny or checks. Given reads I think it's pretty common that the board will run out something like KJ4cc-2-T and he'll be happy to just check the river and show it down. Live SSNL players are ridiculous at river value betting. "Pot's big enough! No need to get greedy." So you save money.

2) if he has another AK or KJ but would fold to a 3!. That parlay seems unlikely.

3) if he has another AK but won't call if the flush comes in. Then you'd like to shove and freeroll of course. Even more unlikely parlay.

All told I think you frequently save money in (1) and rarely lose value or miss a bluff in (2) or (3) so calling down is better than shoving.

I don't think I'd value bet without improvement if checked to.

We don't need to win his stack to make calling +EV just 75ish which should be pretty easy. And when he does have a set do we really expect him to fold on a turn club?

When he has KJ he may slow down a lot on clubs but we have a few more outs and vs a set when we make a flush we should usually get stacks in unless extremely deep. Can't recall if OP specified stack sizes