Quote:
Originally Posted by Lurshy
That a pretty small world if you are considering folding.
You have 9 clean outs out of 47 unseen cards even if you are crushed.
Fewer than 9 against sets, a good portion of the crushing range (6 combos of 15, ruling out KK), but more against KJ. Regardless, I agree folding here is crazy. You would have to know this player extremely well to even consider it, but the OP doesn't mention knowing this guy extremely well so it's not part of my read. There's always some uncertainty and you don't need much here.
I'd probably call down unimproved. At these stacks a river fold for either one of you shouldn't ever be reasonable. No value in a shove, no bluffing in a shove. The only time it matters if
1) he does have better than AK, you don't improve, and he bets tiny or checks. Given reads I think it's pretty common that the board will run out something like KJ4cc-2
-T
and he'll be happy to just check the river and show it down. Live SSNL players are ridiculous at river value betting. "Pot's big enough! No need to get greedy." So you save money.
2) if he has another AK or KJ but would fold to a 3!. That parlay seems unlikely.
3) if he has another AK but won't call if the flush comes in. Then you'd like to shove and freeroll of course. Even more unlikely parlay.
All told I think you frequently save money in (1) and rarely lose value or miss a bluff in (2) or (3) so calling down is better than shoving.
I don't think I'd value bet without improvement if checked to.