Quote:
Originally Posted by FishPlay
Thought process?
Pretty sure most other people don't think about stuff like this, but this is what I think about
:
If you raise to 280 and then always shove the turn Villain will be putting in 200 to win the pot, plus your remaining stack; that 200/(685 pot + 585 remaining) which is 15.7%. Needing under 16% equity to call you can tell immediately then he can profitably call with an 8 out draw, while Villain could have a 17 out draw.
With a 17 out draw he can call even without implied odds.
Playing the turn could be difficult. Assuming he's folded 22,44,55 then anything but a non-club 2 4 5 (or ten or nine) could improve Villain to a better hand.
What to do depends on whether you think Villain will bluff into a dry pot on the turn, whether you think he might have just called with a better hand -- which seems unlikely, whether you think he would have raised with a strong draw, etc.
If I've decided to raise T9o, and hit two-pair, I'd tend to put in a larger raise than most.