The main disagreement I'm having with riverfish is who he thinks makes up the majority of lowstakes players. We're going to simply have to agree to disagree on that.

I'll give the math a shot myself, although I usually end up scewing it up, but here's my attempt:

I'll make the following assumptions:

QJ/J4/J2 (14 combos) will call a raise 100% of the time and beat us.

22 (3 combos) 100% calling and losing.
AJ (8) 75%.
KJ (8) 50%.
JT (8) 25%.
J9/J8/J7/J6/J5/J3 (48) 5%.

89 combos total that will consider calling a raise (not factoring in any other lame-o hands as I doubt there are too many others that think about doing so especially since QQ+ would typically raise preflop).

So just factoring in the EV of what we put in on the river (as the rest of the pot is kinda moot in this regards) and only against hands that would consider calling a raise:

If we flat:

14/89 * -$100 = -$15.73
75/89 * $100 = $84.27

Flatting makes us $68.54 on the river (against hands that would consider calling a raise).


If we raise:

14/89 * 1.00 * -$280 = -$44.04
3/89 * 1.00 * $280 = $9.44
8/89 * 0.75 * $280 = $18.88
8/89 * 0.25 * $100 = $2.24
8/89 * 0.50 * $280 = $12.58
8/89 * 0.50 * $100 = $4.49
8/89 * 0.25 * $280 = $6.29
8/89 * 0.75 * $100 = $6.74
48/89 * 0.05 * $280 = $7.55
48/89 * 0.95 * $100 = $51.24

Raising makes us $75.41 on the river (against hands that would consider calling a raise).

So, *if* I've done the math right (lol, I almost forgot to factor in the times he folds on the river, and who knows if I've ****ed up something else), and *if* these assumptions are ballpark close (???) it's actually fairly close, but looks like the raise has it (plus we have the benefit of not showing our hand). Although fool with the numbers either way and I'm sure you could make it closer / not as close. For example, if your opponent can fold AJ 50% of the time instead 25% of the time, the difference between calling and raising is like $2 instead $7; it doesn't take much to tweak the numbers either way (*if* I've done the math right, so math guys will have to double check).

So, in a nutshell, *and based on my math which may be wrong*, the more lol clueless your opponent is, the more raising is a no brainer; the more seasoned / semi-capable your opponent is, the more raising doesn't have nearly as much upside as you may think.

GsuxatthemathsG

I can speak from experience when I say that trying to explain to GG how poorly our villains think about the game is a lost cause. He says they know their stuff. No explaining why this is wrong will penetrate this belief.

I've suggested interview questions to give to his villains.I won't be holding by breath that he has ever taken this advice. (Ask a villain why he bet x in that spot or ask for a hand history,things like that)

Anyway, I will argue that GG understands poker math much better than his villains. Contemplate that when you try to make sense of what GG posted.

I suppose I'm being too harsh and I'm supposed to be saying nice post or something. I know, the fact that the vast majority of our villains can't do poker math is only my opinion.

Whatever. Carry on. Apologies for being so mean and shedding light onto the matter.

/thread

Sailboats, we always have the very same disagreement. From the way you seem to look at things, if your opponent isn't a wizard then that makes him a complete dolt. There's a third type of opponent that's in between the two, and they make up the vast majority of the player pool. And yes, they're worse than you, and yeah, they're losers. But they're not complete dolts (which "OMG I HAZ TRIPS!" is, and very few of your opponents are on this lol level).

GcluelessopponentlevelnoobG

As someone who has lived and played all over North America, I can tell you that it's entirely possible this disagreement is based on where you live.

I have played in what I later found out was GG's home casino (once or twice). It is probable that his 1/3 player pool is tighter than yours.

That being said, as for the actual hand, I'm shoving the river all day, even where GG plays. If this guy sucked out with QJ, so be it. I don't believe he plays flop/turn this way with J4 and J2, and I'm not going to let him keep his money if he has anything else.

This,+1. I mean come on guys. If we arent shoving river here at 1/3 with these stacksizes and a boat who beats all reasonable Jx except QJ.......