Hi all,

Almost embarrassed to post this but I want to start getting max value more and working on it.

H: extremely swingy session for me. Kinda happy cuz I’m almost even for the session-was down about a full buy in. I’m playing tight overall really targeting the player on my direct right and playing a ton of pots in position with him.

I have around 380 to start.

v: middle aged guy. He has me covered. He has been showing down winners. I have not seen him bluff yet. He plays more hands then he should probably. Called a 15 dollar raise pre with Q9 off in the SB one hand. He has won a few big pots with the nuts. Not very aggressive overall.

OTTH: V is in the B.B. and I am in the cutoff. 3 people limp to me and I limp as well with 44 folds to V who checks

($16) Flop is 4 2 J

B.B. checks one guy bets 15 we call and the B.B. CALLS

($61) Turn J V bets 30, other V folds we raise to 85 total and he calls

($231) River is a Q he relatively quickly bets a $100 chip

Should we always just shove here?

He could have J2 or QJ

It would be another 180 for him to call and idk if he calls with a random jack

Line looks good. Shove now, he will get like 3:1 and can easily call with enough jx ( and 22) to offset the times he has a higher boat.

If he checked the flop with J2, I wouldnt expect him to suddenly lead out on the turn when another J hits. Its a lot more likely he has a random J and probably with a mediocre kicker.

You definitely need to shove the river. Its going to be very hard for him to fold a J after betting $100 on the river.

If I was in his seat with AJ on the turn, I'd call the extra $55 even if I saw your hand. That raise is no where near big enough.

Also raise flop.

I reraise here all day on flop, i know it's a dry board but its not like you're shoving no doubt AJ calls. Maybe 45 c/r. That run out is scary but i'd say more likely AJ after the c/r rather than QJ

There's no check raise. Villain check/called the flop and then led the turn.

Raise size could be bigger but its fine. You need 24% equity to call the raise (not counting obvious implied odds). You have only 7 outs with AJ so you have only 16% equity.

We have to balance the raise size to get calls from weaker hands than AJ. If hero raises to $125, villain could easily fold weaker Js.

Dude.....I already know math.

I know that we're a ~5 to 1 underdog. The pot is currently offering roughly 3 to 1. I realize that in a vacuum it's a -EV call.

Luckily we're not in a vacuum. That would suck

*rimshot*

There is still $280 behind against a guy with a full house. I only need to win a little more than a third of that on average to break even on my turn call.

I stand by my statement

Nonsense. No one at 1/3 folds a Jack here.

I disagree that nobody folds something like J3-J9 to a large turn raise, but if youre right we can still easily get all in on the river vs any J as played so I dont see it as a problem. Either way if villain calls any sized raise with any J we are still getting stacked if he outdraws us on the river....and hes still getting stacked if he doesnt.

This logic only works if his entire range is just Jx.

It isn't.

There are a handful of ways we can not get paid on the river. They probably won't happen often, but the will happen some non-zero % of the time.

Like maybe he as 22. There are 3 outs that can counterfeit him.

Does he really call off the additional $180 with some hand like JT or J9? If you do shove then at least to me it is pretty obvious you have a full house. But if you minraise then you could be overplaying a random jack. That's all speculative but I wonder what the difference in EV is between a rage-inducing minraise vs a shove.

130 on the turn. Best way to get all the chips with our boats is to try to get all the chips with our boats.

Worrying about jx folding is silly. Bluff more if that fold is in play.

Obviously, shove river as played, but turn is the issue with this hand. (I raise pre, but whatever)

+1 to a larger turn raise, you should aim to leave a good river bet size behind. You got lucky that he lead into you OTR (assuming he had the worst hand).

I see no problem with shoving this turn imo villains range is exclusively jx maybe some good combo draws A3s 56s. Those might fold but i would still go for it. Hero already described him as loose and passive. Regardless this is live low stakes... Go for value bruh

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River as played might be a call. If I'm reading your description right, he's in the tight-passive zip code. River lead is gonna be really strong. He's in the BB so all J2 are in his range.

Sometimes he's bluffing and in which case he's not gonna call any river jam from us. Feel like with a J he just check calls...

Get it in here everytime.

Given the stakes and the description, vill's most likely line of thinking: "ZOMG trips no flush no straight, I am good". Almost all jacks are calling here - it's very unlikely that Vill is capable of really thinking through the hand and folding once they have trips.

Also if they are capable of thinking more AND had a full house then they are betting more on the river looking for a call from a jack.

Given that every jack is in his range and it's almost certain they're calling with every jack - not shoving feels like lighting money on fire.

I'm fine with preflop.

I'm fine with just flatting such a dry flop. We're very unlikely to stack anyone in a limped pot on this sorta board, so we just sorta got eek out what we can, and my guess is flatting is best in this regards here.

Bingo card on the turn. I probably make it a bit more (to like $100) because a Jx isn't folding to one bet (at the very least they'll call trying to fill up in worse case scenario), plus it puts stacks in play easier by the river (leaving a ~PSB left).

I probably lean towards raise on the river. The sizing really looks a little blocking bettish (a Jx setting his price). Yeah, he won't call the raise all the time (or even most of the time), but he'll call some of the time. And if he doesn't call he is going to have an ache in his gut that will eventually drive him mad when we don't show. But I guess it does become closer to a call if he rarely calls with a losing hand.

GcluelessNLnoobG

You know how many of your opponents at this level think this facing a river raise for stacks? Absolutely 0.0%, for real. The are absolutely aware that getting in huge $380 stacks in a limped pot facing a river shove is often a monster hand, and their trips (even on a non-straight non-flush board) is behind almost all of those. Does it mean they will always manage a fold? Not necessarily (hence why raising could be fine). But you are *so* far off base with how you think your opponents are thinking about this game.

GimoG

So we're shoving for another 180 into a pot of 431, ~40% of pot - so its not even that big.

And - you must play in the best 1/3 games in the country because in standard 1/3 games most people struggle to move beyond understanding the relative strength of their hand without even taking betting into account. It's closer to 50% of 1/3 people I see would not be capable of thinking through the hand properly here.

This is such an easy snap-shove at 1/3 and anything else is so MUBsy its crazy.

Turn raise is a bit small and it is the perfect card for you as it will be very hard for him to fold most Jacks. I would make it like $115 there so a river shove is very easy.

AP, you do need to shove as you need to at least give him the chance to make a call with Jx. If he as QJ then it is a cooler. But calling here just loses too much value.

I don't know what to tell you. If you think your typical opponent is loving life and fistpumping in his Jx here facing a river raise for stacks in a limped pot blissfully unaware of the possible hands that can beat him, you're delusional. Now whether he actually will manage the fold is obviously another question, but if he's calling it's a crying one and he knows it.

The only reason I'm harping on this is because I see these platitudes trotted out here far too often regarding who is sitting at the poker tables. This ain't 2005. You're likely not sitting with any wizards, but to think 50% of the table is made up of opponents who have zero clue as to what is going on is pretty far off base.

GcluelessNLnoobG

I guess the question is how often does he have to call with worse (and how much not showing our hand is worth).

GtoolazytomathG

I KNOW that my typical opponent is fist-pump loving trips on this board, until they prove otherwise. I've seen it so many times from so many live donks.

You claimed that the number of opponents who feel like this is 0.0%. That's absurd and you're basically admitting it here. I posit that the majority of opponents are like this. That may be higher than where you are, but I'd argue that it's still the plurality and as such we should treat people like that type of opponent unless and until they give us a reason not to. And the description has given us no reason to think otherwise.

If you want to assume all of your 1/2 opponents can range well and you need to take balanced lines against them - that's fine. But you're leaving a ton of money on the table by doing so.

Okay - let's play thought experiment. Let's assume that the description of Vill had been more in line with with "thinking rec player":

- He's getting 2.5:1 on a call.
- Hero's description doesn't make it sound like he has the best table image which means Vill could see him as spazzing. And it's 2.5:1
- KJ (8 combos), AJ (lets put it at 2 b/c he often raises AJ), JT (8 combos), J9 (8 combos) are likely calling. 8 is a tossup (so lets say 4 combos call). That's 30 combos that call that we beat
- Those that beat us: J2 and QJ (6 each or 12 total)

So calling range has 30 combos that we beat and 12 that beat us. That's not even close. Even if we pull J8 and J9 from calling to folding thats 18 combos we beat and 12 that beat us. That's still a jam.

Then add the fact that he can be a dumb Vill that fistpump calls with all Jacks
Then add in a non-zero percentage of random weird spew from Vill

This is a jam and it's not even close.

Thank you for doing this!!!

I feel so disappointed in myself since I didn’t jam for value and he had KJ

I should have definitely added up the combos!