Quote:
Originally Posted by Lapidator
W/e...
I'll overplay the hell out of my hands when V's range includes enough hands that I beat, and V is happy to pay up.
Take the max+EV line, above all else.
Happy to pay up? Most of the Villains in these threads play very well. Usually they're ahead pre-flop/flop/turn/river and get good value with their hands.
But the point is you don't know his range. You probably have never seen the Villain in your entire life.
It seems like whenever Hero has a straight/flush all the Villains turn into donkeys who will bet/call with any two cards and never ever bluff.
A bunch of the Villain's hands AQ, 6x, etc. have lost a lot of their relative hand strength by the river. He has lots of hands he could turn into a bluff.
More importantly, I think we're behind Villain's likely river bet/call range. I left off the unlikely 99/QQ/AA combos. We're behind this range: 66,QsJs,QsTs,Qs9s,Qs8s,Qs7s,Qs5s,Qs4s,Qs3s,JsTs,Js 9s,Js8s,Js7s,Js5s,Js4s,8s7s,7s5s,5s4s,5s3s,A6o,Q6o ,96o
If we think we're value-betting we need to identify lots more worse combos of hands that we expect to bet/call this river.
I can't guarantee that it's even breakeven. Does he limp call 53s in early position? Does he limp/call big pocket pairs to trap?