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1/3 -- flop middle set, but face an ugly turn 1/3 -- flop middle set, but face an ugly turn

03-04-2019 , 12:33 AM
My questions in this hand are mainly about sizing decisions as well as the turn decision. I kind of suspect I sized too small on the flop. Curious for feedback.

Villain in this hand is a rich MAWG. He's here to gamble so he's playing very loose preflop. He limp calls most of the hands he plays. He has a tendency to stack off a bit light, but nothing too crazy. He's mostly been smashing the board for the past couple hours, hitting a lot of his draws.

Hero is running like dogsh*t. Just lost a 1.3k pot in which I flopped top two on JK3 and got it all-in against another player's AK, and this guy hit his A on the river. I received sympathy from the table, including Villain, so I don't think he's too likely to try run a bluff on me.

Hero's stack is around 800, Villain covers

Limps 4 ways and Villain overlimps on the BTN. I raise to 35 from the BB with QQ and get called by 1 limper as well as Villain.

Flop: AQ4 (Pot = 120)

Hero bets 55, folds to Villain who calls. Pot = 230.

Turn: 5

Hero bets 100, Villain clicks it back to 250. Hero calls.

River: 6

Hero checks, Villain bets 350.



What is the proper turn decision against this particular very loose player? In past instances, I would check back turn, because this card is very bad for our range and very good for Vs range (he probably has Q2s+, J5s+, 23s+, 24s+ in his preflop range). We're only isoing from the blinds with a few flush combos (KJ,KQ,QJ of hearts). But with this play I've often found that I am obligated to check/call turn and river bets, and this allows Villain to set the price. For that reason, I favored a bet in this spot.

My second question is, against a semi-competent player who is capable of recognizing that our range is capped and is capable of bluffing, do we have to call down with our pocket Queens on the river? We don't have a ton of flushes, so this is just a sh**ty spot. Maybe we can fold this particular combo on the river because we don't have the Q of hearts?

I also feel that my turn bet may have been a mistake against good players due to this issue of capped ranges. Maybe GTO would recommend to play my entire turn continuing range as a check/call?

Thanks.

Last edited by aisrael01; 03-04-2019 at 12:50 AM.
1/3 -- flop middle set, but face an ugly turn Quote
03-04-2019 , 12:43 AM
Turn lead is okay but I prefer check/call and lead river instead if he doesn’t bet turn.

And def bet bigger OTF. $80.
1/3 -- flop middle set, but face an ugly turn Quote
03-04-2019 , 12:58 AM
Bet flop larger given FD and we unblock top pair, $90-100

X/c turn against LAG should be a lot better

AP I'm calling river w/ close to 3:1 against LAG especially after committing turn. Interesting dynamics pre-hand may make me fold though... live reads matter
1/3 -- flop middle set, but face an ugly turn Quote
03-04-2019 , 01:14 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by fishsoup
Bet flop larger given FD and we unblock top pair, $90-100

X/c turn against LAG should be a lot better

AP I'm calling river w/ close to 3:1 against LAG especially after committing turn. Interesting dynamics pre-hand may make me fold though... live reads matter
Just to clarify, this particular player is not a LAG. He might be better classified as Loose Passive preflop and Calling Station who is a Level 0 thinker so he overvalues his hand. I've played with him a bit and never seen him bluff before.
1/3 -- flop middle set, but face an ugly turn Quote
03-04-2019 , 05:31 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by aisrael01
Just to clarify, this particular player is not a LAG. He might be better classified as Loose Passive preflop and Calling Station who is a Level 0 thinker so he overvalues his hand. I've played with him a bit and never seen him bluff before.
This read is totally conflicting with your read in the OP that he's a semi-competent player who could attack a capped range.
1/3 -- flop middle set, but face an ugly turn Quote
03-04-2019 , 10:44 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by krilleater
This read is totally conflicting with your read in the OP that he's a semi-competent player who could attack a capped range.
Oh snap, I guess that was confusing huh? In the second part of my question I was asking as a follow-up what the GTO play would be in the event we're facing a good player. The player in the actual hand is definitely very bad. I think it's fine to exploitatively fold almost my entire range on the river, because he always has a flush when he raises the turn.
1/3 -- flop middle set, but face an ugly turn Quote
03-04-2019 , 11:13 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by aisrael01
Oh snap, I guess that was confusing huh? In the second part of my question I was asking as a follow-up what the GTO play would be in the event we're facing a good player. The player in the actual hand is definitely very bad. I think it's fine to exploitatively fold almost my entire range on the river, because he always has a flush when he raises the turn.
Yup you just answered your own question
1/3 -- flop middle set, but face an ugly turn Quote
03-04-2019 , 02:58 PM
I find preflop so tricky given these deepstacks. Everyone can very accurately range us and we'll be OOP, and yet we'll never be able to raise enough preflop to comfortably commit postflop with one pair. It's a tricky spot, imo.

SPR is just over 6. Board is decently drawy. We're committed. We've got a rich whale in the hand who's never folding a draw. It's a tricky SPR, one where we can trivially get stacks in with 3 small bets but I'm not sure we're loving that OOP when we can see some meh runouts. So another option is to attempt to get the chips in with 2 bets by overbetting the flop to setup a turn shove. I would actually lean to this since (a) no one folds a draw on the flop (especially rich whales) and (b) TP *might* not even fold to one bet on the flop (although they'll likely be good enough to fold to 2 bets). So I'd lean to $200 on the flop to setup a turn shove. My guess is that I'll be in the minority on this.

As played, mostly by the turn I'm just looking to get to showdown without getting all my chips in before seeing a river. So I'd lean to checking the turn. I guess we have to sigh call the raise but it kinda sucks, imo.

Gross spot by the river. How many people get in huge $800 stacks in your 1/3 NL game without the ~nuts? Such a gross spot.

GcluelessNLnoobG
1/3 -- flop middle set, but face an ugly turn Quote
03-04-2019 , 05:20 PM
GG, overbetting flop is just scared poker IMO. I would fold AK there if you overbet.
1/3 -- flop middle set, but face an ugly turn Quote
03-04-2019 , 05:37 PM
I'm fine with betting the turn.

When he raises turn you can confidently put him on a flush. If he's bad enough to raise a turned two pair or something there, it won't be long before he gives it all away.

I'm fine with calling the smallish raise, as long as you know you're on a boat draw and only calling to fill up

c/f that river
1/3 -- flop middle set, but face an ugly turn Quote
03-04-2019 , 06:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by momo_uk
GG, overbetting flop is just scared poker IMO. I would fold AK there if you overbet.
But you're not the villain; a rich gambooley whale is.

Gtargetyourvillain,imoG
1/3 -- flop middle set, but face an ugly turn Quote

      
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