Nitty V ($250) raises to $16 over limper in MP (read as "99+/AQ+")
Stationy fish ($350) in LP playing ATC calls
Hero ($300) in SB calls with T9
Limper ($200) calls

Flop ($60): T65
Hero checks, BB checks, V bets $50 (read "100% OP"), Fish calls (read "any pair/draw"), Hero ?

Preflop is a fold obv, but took my chances against pretty face up ranges and a fish in the pot willing to donate his stack any moment.

OTF, calling seems weak as hell esp OOP and turns our hand pretty face up as a draw or some TP, so we're going to have to c/f blank turns when V moves in OR not get paid if the flush hits.

However, we also know that a check/shove has zero fold equity against a known overpair because V has seen Hero make moves with draws before.

I know we're almost flipping against overpairs in this spot when our check/shove gets called (which is 100% guaranteed), but still. Is there a better option? Even if we lead out flop for $30, for example, we're most probably going to get raised and be in a similar spot.

How do we resolve this flop dilemma?

So we got 13 outs and we are not folding on this flop since we have about 50% equity.
I think we should call flop and shove turn if we miss our draw and turn is a 2,3,4,7,8. So you have more than half the deck working for you.
We are trying to rep the straight as well and force V to fold turn instead since he is not folding flop. If we get called then we still have lots of outs.

If we raise flop and Vs just flats then we are most likely not going to win since stacks are shallow and Vs are not folding to less than a 1/3 PSB. Calling flop leaves us with just enough pressure on the turn for Vs to fold.

Preflop is not a fold. That's a good hand to play against a tight range. Question is whether or not the nit is folding an overpair, and does he view you as bluffy or tight. With the amount of pot equity you have, he would only have to fold JJ to a shove to make a shove +EV. So I'm leaning towards a shove unless you think he's never folding an overpair, and if that's the case, we're getting a plenty good enough price to see a turn and re-evaluate.


Edit: with his stack size pre is a little closer than I originally said. I'd like him to have 300 or a little more but I think we can still make a call with him having 250, it just becomes a fold if he gets much lower than that.

Interesting spot. Def easier to play IP - but I don't really fault the call pre.

I kind of liked Trini's suggestion.... it's creative. I'm just not sure if leading the turn on one of those straight scare cards is completely plausible. For instance, if a 2x hits and we are really holding a 34 - would we bet out - or would we go for a check raise? (would we even ever call pre with 34?). If I were to try that gambit - I think I'd only do it with 4,7,8,9

I'd fold preflop. We're most likely only going to go 3ways and we'll be OOP and it's for a decent 6.5% of our stack. If nitty's range is tight and he always stacks off with TP/overpair, then maybe it's not as bad, but overall, pretty meh, imo.

I'm check/shoving this flop. There's huge dead money that make flips against the overpair very profitable, and even if we add just 10% FE we're laughing.

ETA: I guess the real question is whether a check/shove (which is obviously profitable) is *more* profitable than just a call. Main Villain is going to have less than a PSB left on the turn; I just don't see him folding on non-spades if we just flat the flop, so my guess is we have more FE on the flop than the turn. There's also a *possibility* that we fold out better spade draws from the fish.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Snap fold pre <100BB eff against the pre-flop raiser with a sc oop for the rest of the hand.

The flop is 100% a CRAI. You don't really need FE because you're a slight favorite against an overpair. You should not call because the flush draw is obvious multiway and an overpair should fold if someone shoves a turn. You want to get value from overpairs now while you have two chances to hit a flush, trips, two pair, and even a backdoor straight. You also have zero FE when you miss the turn and your equity plummets. Eff. stacks will be <PSB and no overpair should fold a blank turn.

The only real danger is if LP fish calls with a better flush draw. I don't think you should worry about that and shouldn't cause you to call or fold.

Weirdly worded, but just to be clear, we definitely want overpairs to fold their huge equity in the pot (i.e. we don't want them to call even if it turns out we are a slight favourite).

GcluelessNLnoobG

Not sure how you guys calculated Hero as a slight favorite. I just stoved JJ+ against my hand and we're 47.9%.

Shove, overs are rarely folding but we should fold out top pair with better kicker some of the time

Yeah, I didn't stove it but it doesn't surprise me we are slight underdogs. Still, the huge dead money in the pot makes it EV if he calls our shove (and massively EV if he doesn't).

GcluelessNLnoobG

Ck-shove, but if the fish calls it off with a range that still includes JTs+, it's not even that bad. Am I way off here?

Player 1: 30.9% 30.7% 0.41% {JJ-TT, 66-55, ATs, AsJs, As9s-As2s, KTs, KsJs+, Ks8s, QTs, QsJs, Qs8s, JTs, Js8s, 87s, 65s, 43s}
Player 2: 32.3% 32.3% 0.13% [Ts9s]
Player 3: 36.7% 36.6% 0.28% {TT+, AsQs+}

Pre I think stacks need to be a little deeper to call oop. I don't like shoving the flop this time. When you raise in this spot, you aren't doing it for value because worse hands aren't calling, so you need FE to make it more profitable than just calling with the immediate odds you are getting. V is never folding an overpair, so there's no FE. OTT, planning to shove a non spade card that completes a straight is ambitious IMO. Repping a straight is often hard to do in live low stakes and nitty V's don't like to get bluffed off of overpairs in that spot, so I don't think there's close to enough FE to make it more profitable than just C/C flop, evaluate turn action, and only continue against significant action from MP with a spade, T, or 9. Any other cards are probably just folds without the right price. I think by calling preflop without deep enough stacks, you will often end up in this kind of spot where you won't have enough room to make moves if need be.

I wonder if making it $150 would generate some tiny bit of FE compared to a shove.

I got 48% when I punched this hand in again. Not sure how I got 51% the first time. Shoving is still the right move.