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1/3 flop bottom 2 on OMC too much thin value? 1/3 flop bottom 2 on OMC too much thin value?

01-10-2016 , 11:06 PM
Reads: V1 is an OMC and possibly super nit only played a few hands but overheard him say that AK is a curse and he doesn't usually raise it preflop which makes me believe his raising range is like QQ+ But obviously one comment isn't the end all be all of reads....

OTTH:
UTG +2 raises to 15, V1 calls, hero calls in CO with Q9, BB calls.

Effective stacks (260)

Flop: (60) AQ9 spades checks to V1 who bets 40, only hero calls.

Turn: (140) 7 V1 bets 40, hero raises to 80, V1 calls.

River: (300) 5 V1 checks, hero goes AI for approx 135 left????

At the time I thought his range was skewed to mostly AK or AJ, although AQ and A9 are entirely possible but less likely due to blockers, I also think AA is pretty impossible as he doesn't strike me as one not to re-raise aces, my question is should a call to my min raise be setting off alarms that he has better then one pair hands or is this fairly plausible for AK or AJ? Is shoving the river also way too thin of value for two pair? The whole point of my min raise was to get stacks in on river (shallow less than 100bbs) while making a relatively small raise that would be callable by an amateur in absolute terms of money not just the turn line.
1/3 flop bottom 2 on OMC too much thin value? Quote
01-11-2016 , 07:58 AM
i think you are turning your hand into a bluff by shoving the river. i think he has AQ at worst here. he hardly ever has A9. i guess AK is possible but i don't think he's paying you off on the river. might be a spot where you only get called by better, but when he shows one pair you feel like kicking yourself in the arse.
1/3 flop bottom 2 on OMC too much thin value? Quote
01-11-2016 , 08:11 AM
Well if he is an OMC A9 is very unlikely like you said due to blockers, plus he called 5x pre. But I think you're beat alot here by AQ/QQ. Maybe I'm a bit too passive but I believe here is one of the few spots to check back although you maybe losing some thin value. Once he calls back the raise on the turn AJ is out the window and maybe sometimes he wakes up with AK
1/3 flop bottom 2 on OMC too much thin value? Quote
01-11-2016 , 08:14 AM
i don't think he ever has a set here with the check on the river. if he had shipped the river, i would have folded pretty quickly.
1/3 flop bottom 2 on OMC too much thin value? Quote
01-11-2016 , 09:51 AM
The problem with your line is that V is never folding anything u beat. Also, V has few hands that you beat. So you're taking on more risk for little or no return.
1/3 flop bottom 2 on OMC too much thin value? Quote
01-11-2016 , 10:24 AM
I'd just call three times. The second $40 on the turn feels a lot like AJ or AK, but I'd rather just click call on the turn, and then CIB or something on the river if he comes out with another $40 or something.

I'd be folding Q9s preflop once a nit OMC calls though.
1/3 flop bottom 2 on OMC too much thin value? Quote
01-11-2016 , 11:36 AM
Not sure the point of the min-raise. You started with 90bb and the raise was 5x, not usually planning to fold a flopped 2 pair in that scenario. Against most players I'd be shipping the turn. Against a nit who is never leading draws and we fold out AJ and maybe AK if we raise...., we just gotta call him down all the way.

AP, even a super nit should still have AK in his range here. It's close though, as he'll probably fold AK some of the time on the river, and he could be easily be planning to puke x/c with AQ, lol99 or even lolQQ, afraid he's beat but never folding. Too many AK combos for me, I shove and then puke when he shows me I'm a donk.
1/3 flop bottom 2 on OMC too much thin value? Quote
01-11-2016 , 11:42 AM
Also, read of nit maybe supernit is off if he ever has A9o in his preflop range. Certainly, you're also screwed if he's holding Ac9c, which a supernit OMC will never have, btw.
1/3 flop bottom 2 on OMC too much thin value? Quote
01-11-2016 , 11:56 AM
as far as preflop goes, folding pre would be fine. I'd want all of these to call:

- passive straightforward player on the button
- blinds not squeeze-happy
- skill edge over orig raiser who has a full stack
1/3 flop bottom 2 on OMC too much thin value? Quote
01-11-2016 , 03:19 PM
I fold preflop. Stacks aren't huge, our hand is pretty crap and easily dominated, we might end up only 3way (poor immediate odds, not as great IO as fewer players to stack postflop, plus looks like Villain ain't one to stack off easy postflop), etc. I'm looking to get into limped pots with hands like these, not raised ones, imo.

With an SPR of ~4 and the board drawy and AK easily being in Villains range, we should feel committed on this flop. Bunch of gross cards could come on the turn to kill our hand / action, so I'd raise the flop. I'd probably just do $100 in an attempt to not lose his weaker hands, and then ship the rest on most turns.

As played on the turn, the pot is already $180 and we only have about a PSB left. Just ship it in now, imo, especially since we are committed (and won't be able to fold to gross river cards, such as the flush draw we are giving him 6.5:1 to chase).

GcluelessNLnoobG
1/3 flop bottom 2 on OMC too much thin value? Quote
01-11-2016 , 03:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by IbelieveinChipKelly
i think you are turning your hand into a bluff by shoving the river. i think he has AQ at worst here. he hardly ever has A9. i guess AK is possible but i don't think he's paying you off on the river. might be a spot where you only get called by better, but when he shows one pair you feel like kicking yourself in the arse.
it's 135 into 300, with no flush or straights possible, this is ultra vanilla standard
1/3 flop bottom 2 on OMC too much thin value? Quote
01-11-2016 , 03:46 PM
turn is a really odd bet by V. if he has a hand worth value, it seems like he would at least bet 55 to protect against the flush. wonder if V has KQ specifically.

I think when you make it 80 OTT, and V flats, you are good.

river is a good shove.
1/3 flop bottom 2 on OMC too much thin value? Quote
01-11-2016 , 04:05 PM
fold pre
otherwise good
1/3 flop bottom 2 on OMC too much thin value? Quote

      
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