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Live Low-stakes NL Discussion of up to 3/5 live no-limit, pot-limit and spread-limit Texas Hold'em poker games, situations and strategies.

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Old 02-06-2019, 11:06 PM   #1
minky911
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1/3 Facing a river bet with TPMK

Hero (300) in HJ raises to 15 with JdTd. Villain (~1000) calls in BB. Villain is middle aged, seems like a reg, and just busted out of a tournament. Has been playing a lot of hands.

Flop(31) 10 6 3 r
V x
H 25
V calls

Turn(81) 10 6 3 5 r
V 65
H calls

River(211) 10 6 3 5 2
V 150
H ?
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Old 02-07-2019, 01:20 AM   #2
cwel87
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Re: 1/3 Facing a river bet with TPMK

I’ll break this down:

His semi-bluffs like 77-99 are highly unlikely to lead into you twice, and that’s a ton of your equity on prospective hero calls. If we break it down further and polarize his range, he’s almost certainly not making that bet for thin value in AT/KTs/QTs/T9s holdings. Therefore, the likeliest hands are combos of 87s-style holdings where the semi-bluff on the turn is made into a big bet on the river, or a nightmare collection of 54s/44/65s/ten combos of mined sets on the flop and turn, all of which can easily take the x/c -> bet out line.

It’s a clear fold to me.

Last edited by cwel87; 02-07-2019 at 01:23 AM. Reason: Cut out chafe
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Old 02-07-2019, 02:05 AM   #3
KID777777
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Re: 1/3 Facing a river bet with TPMK

Snap fold riv
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Old 02-07-2019, 07:31 AM   #4
Minatorr
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Re: 1/3 Facing a river bet with TPMK

smaller otf.

ap lol fold turn, reg is value heavy here when he takes this line. river obv snap fold, your range is incredibly face-up to any reg with a brain, he shouldn't really expect a rando to fold an overpair here or A10, and even his occasional turn bluffs got there
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Old 02-07-2019, 12:19 PM   #5
pokerforjoker
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Re: 1/3 Facing a river bet with TPMK

Less flop. Turn is close, river is fold.
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Old 02-07-2019, 12:30 PM   #6
Spanishmoon
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Re: 1/3 Facing a river bet with TPMK

As we say in Spanish, you went from Guatemala to Guatepeor. From bad to worse ott. The 5 smashes his BB range. So raise or fold turn.

OTR, you have to fade A, 2, 7 and any card that pairs board except 10: 21 scare cards. It's just too tough of a spot to take a passive turn line. H has enough FE/PE to raise turn. Flat levels H and makes him vulnerable to river bluffs.

A thinking V could easily put H on AK/AQ/AJ combos that missed flop given H's std cbet. So V could easily lead a small pair/straight draw here ott against H's range with decent FE and some pot equity. I think the decision point is the turn.

H doesn't want to see river. Ironically, perhaps V doesn't either as the 65 bet screams "please fold", not "come with me to value town".

AP, fold river. Draws get there and V shows no fear of H's turn flatting range.
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Old 02-07-2019, 01:00 PM   #7
gobbledygeek
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Re: 1/3 Facing a river bet with TPMK

I'm either/or preflop regarding raising vs open limping here (table / stack / etc. dependent). We managed to get things HU in position preflop, so I like our result.

I'm probably also betting the flop with this vulnerable but likely best hand. I'd probably go no more than $20 (our goal here isn't to build a big pot, so bet smaller, imo).

I mostly fold to the turn donk. Unless we've seen this guy donk/bluffing lots on later streets he's probably just made whatever piece of cheese he's been calling with and now wants to get paid off. It's a pretty decent sized bet and we have to fear facing another one on the river, so I just exit now. We really think this is T9/99/etc. enough?

Ditto thinking pretty much for the river. The interesting thing on the river is the 4-to-a-straight did get there so most people freak out at this point and check a lotta their really good hands here. But for the most part the only reason we can call here is because a busted 87 (gutshot on the flop, double gutshot on the turn) could play things this way, but I just think that is too narrow a range to target with a call.

GcluelessNLnoobG
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Old 02-07-2019, 02:49 PM   #8
minky911
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Re: 1/3 Facing a river bet with TPMK

Yeah smaller sizing on the flop makes sense. What about a check?
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Old 02-07-2019, 03:35 PM   #9
gobbledygeek
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Re: 1/3 Facing a river bet with TPMK

I think we could lean to a check against super tricky players (more looking to get to showdown without getting put in gross spots in big spots) but against more ABC guys I think I'd lean to betting what is likely the best but a very vulnerable hand (and I'm assuming this guy is a more ABCish since I'm folding to the turn donk). More reason to check back far more robust hands (like AA which fears much fewer turn cards that Tx).

GcluelessNLnoobG
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Old 02-07-2019, 09:41 PM   #10
WereBeer
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Re: 1/3 Facing a river bet with TPMK

Honestly, I just fold turn.
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Old 02-07-2019, 10:28 PM   #11
rumsey182
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Re: 1/3 Facing a river bet with TPMK

Why exactly are we 5Xing as an open?
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