Hero (300) in HJ raises to 15 with JdTd. Villain (~1000) calls in BB. Villain is middle aged, seems like a reg, and just busted out of a tournament. Has been playing a lot of hands.

Flop(31) 10 6 3 r
V x
H 25
V calls

Turn(81) 10 6 3 5 r
V 65
H calls

River(211) 10 6 3 5 2
V 150
H ?

I’ll break this down:

His semi-bluffs like 77-99 are highly unlikely to lead into you twice, and that’s a ton of your equity on prospective hero calls. If we break it down further and polarize his range, he’s almost certainly not making that bet for thin value in AT/KTs/QTs/T9s holdings. Therefore, the likeliest hands are combos of 87s-style holdings where the semi-bluff on the turn is made into a big bet on the river, or a nightmare collection of 54s/44/65s/ten combos of mined sets on the flop and turn, all of which can easily take the x/c -> bet out line.

It’s a clear fold to me.

Snap fold riv

smaller otf.

ap lol fold turn, reg is value heavy here when he takes this line. river obv snap fold, your range is incredibly face-up to any reg with a brain, he shouldn't really expect a rando to fold an overpair here or A10, and even his occasional turn bluffs got there

Less flop. Turn is close, river is fold.

As we say in Spanish, you went from Guatemala to Guatepeor. From bad to worse ott. The 5 smashes his BB range. So raise or fold turn.

OTR, you have to fade A, 2, 7 and any card that pairs board except 10: 21 scare cards. It's just too tough of a spot to take a passive turn line. H has enough FE/PE to raise turn. Flat levels H and makes him vulnerable to river bluffs.

A thinking V could easily put H on AK/AQ/AJ combos that missed flop given H's std cbet. So V could easily lead a small pair/straight draw here ott against H's range with decent FE and some pot equity. I think the decision point is the turn.

H doesn't want to see river. Ironically, perhaps V doesn't either as the 65 bet screams "please fold", not "come with me to value town".

AP, fold river. Draws get there and V shows no fear of H's turn flatting range.

I'm either/or preflop regarding raising vs open limping here (table / stack / etc. dependent). We managed to get things HU in position preflop, so I like our result.

I'm probably also betting the flop with this vulnerable but likely best hand. I'd probably go no more than $20 (our goal here isn't to build a big pot, so bet smaller, imo).

I mostly fold to the turn donk. Unless we've seen this guy donk/bluffing lots on later streets he's probably just made whatever piece of cheese he's been calling with and now wants to get paid off. It's a pretty decent sized bet and we have to fear facing another one on the river, so I just exit now. We really think this is T9/99/etc. enough?

Ditto thinking pretty much for the river. The interesting thing on the river is the 4-to-a-straight did get there so most people freak out at this point and check a lotta their really good hands here. But for the most part the only reason we can call here is because a busted 87 (gutshot on the flop, double gutshot on the turn) could play things this way, but I just think that is too narrow a range to target with a call.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Yeah smaller sizing on the flop makes sense. What about a check?

I think we could lean to a check against super tricky players (more looking to get to showdown without getting put in gross spots in big spots) but against more ABC guys I think I'd lean to betting what is likely the best but a very vulnerable hand (and I'm assuming this guy is a more ABCish since I'm folding to the turn donk). More reason to check back far more robust hands (like AA which fears much fewer turn cards that Tx).

GcluelessNLnoobG

Honestly, I just fold turn.

Why exactly are we 5Xing as an open?