Well I'm still concerned about the Eastern European gentleman who has flatted and covers us. He could easily jam over the top and put us in a tight spot.
I range the lady on the nut flush draw or a set. 20/0 means she has a hand presumably. Meanwhile, the older gent is likely wider but has a hand too. Perhaps he has TPGK or 98suited.
This HH illustrates why it's so hard to open QTs utg. You're going to be oop with a RIO hand. Now we don't know whether Hero is on foot or horseback and we don't even have particularly tricky Vs against us. Substitute Javanewt for the lady and one of the regular very good players ITF for the older gent and we're up doodoo creek most of the time.
A capable V in MP is going to squeeze us so it's jam or fold. I can find a fold here against capable MP V. We're not even getting decent direct odds against the lady.
Personally I think we're setting money on fire with preflop, but that's me. I fold. If table is passive and lol horrendous I won't hate on a limp.
I mostly think TP + flush draw should be played passively. There's certainly some argument for a bet due to equity, but if anyone decides to play for more then we're usually in a pretty dumb spot and rarely have as many outs as we think we do. UI we're mostly looking to get to showdown for relatively cheap. There's not a lotta turn cards that can hurt us. We don't even have the nut draw. Thanks to having TP there are very few hands we're targetting with FE (not that any of those hands would fold anyways), unlike betting bottom pair. I prefer a check/evaluate.
As played, there's now $250 in the pot and we only have $250 left (although we're only facing a bet of $105 ETA: Actually only facing a raise of $70). I don't think we can fold with our likely equity. The question is whether we shove it all in now or just flat. Interesting spot. We're probably behind and thus need to improve, which reasons that a call to bring along the other guy to pad our odds might be the play (due to size of pot on turn we'll always have the odds to call a shove by him ETA: If I've mathed right, we'll be getting about 3.5:1 facing a turn shove which I think we an justify calling if it came to that). However, it's also possible we might have to free up some outs, and perhaps a shove to get him off those outs might be better. In big pots I usually lean to the more aggressive action, and would lean to a shove, although I can certainly see why flatting might be better.
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Last edited by gobbledygeek; 05-17-2019 at 11:51 AM.
I decide to shove, thinking I have enough pot equity against the middle-aged lady who is shortstacked who raised only $70, and that I had enough combined FE+showdown equity against the geezer who led out.
The old man called. The turn is a 4c an the river is a 9d.
The lady had Q-10 offsuit, without a draw. The old man shows 7-4 offsuit, and wins with a full house.
Considering I was up $650 earlier in the session, I ended up losing 4 buyins in less than two hours, moving from what would have been a very good win to one of my worst session losses of the year.
I decide to shove, thinking I have enough pot equity against the middle-aged lady who is shortstacked who raised only $70, and that I had enough combined FE+showdown equity against the geezer who led out.
The old man called. The turn is a 4c an the river is a 9d.
The lady had Q-10 offsuit, without a draw. The old man shows 7-4 offsuit, and wins with a full house.
Considering I was up $650 earlier in the session, I ended up losing 4 buyins in less than two hours, moving from what would have been a very good win to one of my worst session losses of the year.
Hang in there! It’s just a cooler. Sometimes it’s good to limit oneself to 2 buyins per session. If you run poorly there’s always the risk of tilting even against knuckleheads. Better to go get some fresh air, enjoy a cocktail etc. And come back fresh the next day.
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