$1/$3, 9-handed, played at 2pm on Monday afternoon.

Villain (UTG) - 40s Mediterranean guy. Seems somewhat fishy/passive, but hasn't done anything spewy yet. $500.

Hero (UTG+2) - 20s WG. Tight image. Covers.

Hero is dealt KQcc
Villain limps $3
Hero raises $18
Villain calls $18

Flop ($36) 9h 5d 5c

Villain checks
Hero bets $13
Villain calls $13

Turn ($60) 9h 5d 5c Jc

Villain checks
Hero bets $40
Villain calls $40

River ($132) 9h 5d 5c Jc 3h

Villain checks
Hero ???

This is basically the very bottom of our range and we have a nitty image at this table (reasons to bluff), but villain is somewhat loose-passive, might get sticky with top pair and might be slowplaying a monster hand (reasons not to bluff).

What do you think?

Firing the 3rd barrel is total spew.

The river card changes nothing and he already called flop and turn on a relatively benign board.

This is a classic spot to give up.

looks fine so far and looks fine to 3 barrel but you might want to consider using a very exploitative approach at 1/3 vs fishy players and just have 0 bluffs on this exact run out. Plus you beat 78

Think you'll be bluffing a bit too much if you include this. KQ, QTs, and 87s w/o club should be your theoretical bluffing range. Having said that I prob play exploitative here and just don't have a bluffing range on river.

I think this is a terrible runout to try to fire 3 barrels at. Continuing OTT is fine when you pick up loads of equity. OTR, just not seeing much we should expect to get folds from on such a brick river. There are almost no draws V could have either. Theoretically you're supposed to have some 3 barrels here, but I think it's going to work so rarely on this runout that I'd just give up.

I actually think second barrell is spew versus this V as described. Basically a drawless flop so unless we can credibly rep Jx here (which given there was a connecting 9 on the flop, is harder to do), then I just check behind and re-eval on the river.

Second barrel was intended to fold out some 9x, some Ax floats and some weaker pocket pairs, as well as get value off straight draws.

Seems ambitious versus a "fishy/passive" guy as described, but ok.

I said he's somewhat fishy/passive, but not overly spewy. He does a decent amount of limp-calling pre, but I've never seen him do anything ridiculous like calling 3 streets with middle pair before. He's a somewhat sensible player.

I agree checking turn is better here as well.

U took your shot on the flop and on the turn. But he called both times. He has something, and the 3 on the river isn’t going to scare him. I doubt he’s folding to the last bet. I would shut it down at this point.

Edit: if the turn bet was supposed to get A high, weak 9x, and smaller pocket pairs to fold, then we should assume he does not have these in his range once we arrive at the river. So what is this last barrel going to get him to fold?

AP I see no reason why you can’t pot river.

Running big multistreet bluffs at 1-2 and 1-3 is in my opinion mostly fancy play syndrome, and often spew unless you are extremely skilled at picking the correct spots against the right villains for it to be +EV longterm over a big sample. In my experience an incredible small percentage of the playerpool at these stakes have these abilities pinned down, and i honestly think its so so easy to overbluff at these stakes/finding the correct balance to not overdo it- wich means you will lose money longterm very likely.

Its not many players who will say this (because many players have such big pride to admit this), but the white magic to crush 1/3 is to build up extremely solid ABC fundamentals, pay 100 percent attention to everything going on- and be willing to go for max exploitative lines outside the box. Focusing on light 3 bets, big 3 barrel bluffs and so forth is telling me you are very likely focusing on the wrong things considering the stakes you play and your current skillevel- and you obviously suffer from fancy play syndrome in my opinion.

And not only that: these kind of trippel barrell bluffs is increasing the possible negative variance when you are in bankrollbuilding mode.

Overbet turn.

I think flop is a check back unless we know V is super fit or fold with even small pp's here.

I think there is merit to betting or checking turn for free card. I would check turn and realize equity cheap, as we pick up a gutshot + fd with 2 overs, and paired boards tend to have less fold equity vs fish.

Why would you suggest this? I think that overbetting river makes more sense than overbetting turn, but I'm open to new ideas if you can logically justify it.

Results:

I'm a little surprised no one commented on the c-bet sizing. Yes, its a pretty dry board, but you are representing a pair if you are c-betting here, and not many 9x's are in your raising range.

Would you only bet 1/3 pot with an overpair? If so, I believe you are leaving huge value on the table and would size up the c-bet, while minimizing the frequency of c-bets. But this is still a good board to c-bet on.

Haven't read spoiler. I like the 3 barrel here. Given your image I think you still get a lot of folds.

Yeah I would bet 35% pot with my entire range on this board texture, including with overpairs.

Imho a lot of the responses here are outleveling themselves, as they put themselves in villain's shoes and think you are repping thin for value. In reality by the river V has so many 1 pair (w/o J) or less (draws that missed) combos and to a bet of $75+ ( large in absolute size) so many of our 1/3 opponents will just fold w/o a ridiculous amount of street by street analysis, esp. if we have a tight clean image.

Flop bet size is kind of weird at these stakes but ok. I'm totally fine with a 3 barrel as played.

Avarita's suggestion of turn overbet is interesting since he has to fold a huge % of his hands to it. Do you balance this with overbetting overpairs, AJ? Does this approach to betting care at all about balance?

I personally like betting normal on turn to build a pot on turn to steal on the river a lot more, and it is easier to balance imo.

Without even reading the thread don’t barrel air on 1/3 or 2/5 at crown, it’s lighting $ on fire. Get your profit from larger value sizing and forcing yourself to go for thin value on rivers v stations. Realise your draw equity as cheaply as possible unless you have a combo draw and are prepared to bet/gii for any amount on flop (balancing your 2pr+ range)

Jesus, you make money at 1/2 and 1/3 in general because people call too much and we value bet them relentlessly. The flip side of this is that if people call too much, we should bluff less.

Villain is not folding A9 on this river after calling on the turn.

be patient, make hands, bet them hard, profit

Didn't think about it when I replied, but I like this. Overbetting turn when our c-bets turn large draws is something I've been playing with recently too. Haven't done it enough yet to get a feel for how well it works, but glad to see someone seemingly much more experienced than I suggest this type of line.

^^Yes this is good not only when we pickup a nice draw but also when the high card changes as we will usually have a lot of FE.