This hand occurred yesterday in a 1/3 game at the Wynn that has been playing very deep stacked. Villain in the hand is a MAWG who has been steaming throughout the session. I stacked him in a massive pot earlier when I opened UTG with AA, he 3-bet to $50 and I 4-bet to $125. He called and on an A83hh flop, I checked and he inexplicably snap-shipped for something like $500. I insta-called of course, and he basically mucked immediately. Villain also has generally been unwilling to fold all day.

On to the hand in question. Effective stacks are $610 (I cover Villain).

Villain (UTG+2) raises to $10
Cutoff calls
Button calls
Hero (BB) calls with T8

Pot: $41
Flop: TAT

Hero leads out for $30
Villain calls
Other players fold

Pot: $101
Turn: 9

Hero leads out for $65
Villain calls

Pot: $231
River: 9

Hero leads out for $160
Villain snap-shoves for $505
Hero ???

Call river. We're only beaten by AA, AT, & 99, though V's EP raising range would be helpful.


I wouldn't consider 203bb "very" deep-stacked. If the other stacks were smaller, I'd fold this pre-flop.

He has three possible hands that beat you, AA and AT and 99. He could also be shipping any other T (KT, QT, JT, etc.) I don't know how far beyond that he goes in his ability to shove but it seems like you have too much equity to let this go.

I haven't seen him show down too many hands that he's raised, nor do I think he's raised that much. Typical 1/2/3 player who limps and calls too much. That said, I kinda wish I had made him show his hand in that 4-bet pot (I called and immediately turned up my AA).

The other stacks were roughly 100 BB deep. Maybe this is a leak in my game, but I just can't see how folding a hand like T8s getting almost 5:1 preflop with an SPR of 20:1 against a pre-flop raiser (especially one who is "steaming," as I described) is the right play. That said, I ran this hand by a friend of mine -- a good 2/5 player -- and he also said "fold pre."

I think it is very dependent on the type of game and your play style whether you fold this pre or not. I imagine most TAG players would say fold pre though. I personally don't like folding hands like this IP unless somebody in the blinds has a tendency to 3-bet pretty often. Maybe I am wrong in this but I feel like against the competition at most 1/3 games you want to play hands like this in position.

You lose to 7 combos in the deck. The guy is on tilt. You aren't that deep. You have to call.

Although you're getting ok odds, playing this OOP is going to suck, which is why folding is a good option. Also, when someone is "steaming," I take it I have no fold equity against them, making me more likely to play them in position, and with decent starters. People who can't find folds are people you play fit/fold against.

I would only call pre if I was at a tight table and had a lot of post-flop fold equity for the times we flop a draw and want to put in a big raise.

With a tilted player in the hand as the pre-flop raiser, I think our fold equity drops dramatically post flop. Can see a case for fold pre.

I'd bet smaller on river to get a call from AJ-AK, probably $95 or so. Is he going to call off your triple barrel with almost PSB river bet with Ax? As played don't see how you can fold but you're probably not gonna win.

Definitely calling the river shove there.

Villain snap ship bluffs all in earlier and insta mucks and now this steaming villain snap shoves and we have a very nutty hand. Thread is nearly a level. Without any crazy live reads this is a super easy call.

Sent from my SM-T700 using Tapatalk

If a key reason we call is to bluff catch, then how light should hero call?

Is all Ax also a call?

We shouldnt be betting Ax in this spot ever. Villain will play this river exactly like this with all Tx hands that we chop with. Also could see him tilt doing this with Ax as well from time to time. How often he raises with Tx pre is unclear and how often he plays the flop and turn like this with Tx is also unclear but I'd guess a decent percentage of the time.

Sent from my SM-T700 using Tapatalk

You are closing action pre and facing a pretty small raise from a player that you have a skill advantage over. I'm fine with a call pre.

On the river we call. AA/A10 are certainly possible but so are A9, 10x hands. There also has to be a spaz factor of at least 5-10% here as well given previous hands. This isn't a spot we are super excited about, but we call here anyway.

Given previous hand, I don't think we can fold.

AP, call. Sometimes you'll win here; other times you won't. Too many weaker hands from this V will shove to justify a fold.

I'm in the fold pre camp as I want at least 5:1 and deep stacks. It's close
though; I don't hate it.

I think your river sizing is too large. I think you will get calls from KT-JT that will bail to this sizing and you may even lose A9 (although I doubt it from this guy ). I prefer $100-$120.

[math edit]

This is a really sick spot. You are getting about 3 to 1 so you need to win around 25% of the pot on average... he has 1 combo of AT suited, 3 combos of AA, and 1 combo of 99, so 5 combos of hands that beat you and let's say he can have T9s, JTs, QTs, and KTs which is 4 combos, but you only tie for those so you can treat them as 2 combos. That's 5 combos vs 2, so you need to be getting at least 2.5 to 1 to call, which you have.

If you consider the spazz factor it becomes more in your favor. One could make a good argument to fold anyway because he's not always going to raise allin with just a T so it might be more like you need 5:1 to call, but I think calling is okay.

This was the conclusion I came to on my own before posting. I think it's really close but overall a horrible spot. The fact that he was "steaming" and spewed off his stack earlier tipped me in favor of calling in the moment.

He had AA and I lost.

For those of you now want to say, "This is why you fold T8s pre," I'm *very* confident this guy would have played AJ-AK like this up until the river shove and would have paid me off for $150. Folding T8 pre in this spot may very well be correct (I'm not sold), but this doesn't seem like a good example to illustrate that point.

Pre-flop is fine.

Key question in the hand is the extent to which chop economics (only winning half the pot against chops) affect our decision to call or fold given the direct odds we're getting.

Super sick spot and I honestly don't think villain takes such a line with air, or is good enough to turn Ax into a bluff.

As played I think you have to call and call it a cooler if he has AA, AT. Most of the times you chop because he would raise Tx hoping YOU have Ax.

The only thing we can analyze here is previous actions. Is checking flop and taking a passive line better? By leading, are we just getting it in if we got raised on flop or turn? I would consider a check calling line which would still get 2 streets of value against AK/AQ/AJ anyway, induces bluffs, and pot controls against hands that crush us.

Betting small on river like someone suggested is an option too. It gives us more room to fold if we think he's value raising (but also induces more bluffs, so whether we bet-fold or call depends on our reads on villain). Betting small on river also gets more calls out of AK, AQ who are hoping to chop because a smaller bet feels like we have Ax as well.

Call,call,raise-shove is a nutted hand. 12 KT-JT combos, 3 AA, 3 AT, 1 99 = -$62 EV

If we can't rule out the spaz factor or A9s, then it's close. 12 KT-JT combos, 3 AA, 3 AT, 1 99, and 1 A9s = -$17 EV. Throw in one more spaz or 9x, then it's +EV.

I'd also call preflop. Suck being OOP, but I think we're being given just to good a price, closing the action, plus know we're going 4ways.

I'd bet smaller on the flop. Board is pretty bone dry other than the Ace.

I might check the turn. This guy looks like he can be bluffy given the history hand, so I might just check and let him do his thing. But if this guy has a hard time folding / believing us, I definitely don't hate a bet.

I'm also betting the river, especially against a bluffy guy that can't fold and on a drawless board where no draws busted for him to bluff. Gross spot facing the raise, as we're basically just calling to chop in most cases but he's freerolling when he has AA/AT (which are very possible).

ETA: I know playing OOP sucks, but I still think calling preflop is ok given that we are only putting in ~1% of our stack. Although here we ended up almost ~nutmining and still got ourselves into a sticky spot (similar to where we'd be if he made a flush too). I can also get behind the smaller bets / perhaps checking a street lines as well (especially if he can be bluffy). Even though this guy spewed in the history hand (or did he, it's a little unclear), is he really doing that again on the river? River is gross cuz he's basically freerolling us in most situations.

G****pants,thenmakeadecision,Iguess?G