Bellagio 1/3

V - Younger white dude, saw him showdown one hand. He raised pre to ~15, one caller. Check, he cbets 20 on a AJ2 board, gets called. Turn check check on blank, river blank check, he checks and rolls over A4. From this, don't think he vbets thinly, haven't seen him get out of line (pretty tight pre, not too aggressive).

H - 25 y.o. asian guy, hoodie. Snug image, haven't gotten out of line since sitting down, set mined a couple times folded, won a couple small pots without showdown.

Effective stacks 300 (hero barely covers).

V limps from MP, H raises to 15 from CO with TT (standard raise size at table was 12-15, generally getting pots heads up, so on the small side but effective IMO). Folds to V who calls.

Pot: 30$
Flop T98 rainbow, V checks, hero bets 25, V x/r to 55. Hero?

I think his x/r range here consists of all sorts of garbage like A8, as well as 1p+straight draws like JT, and also naked draws like KJ with overs.

Do we 3! the flop here? I think we likely blow away all 1p hands, and probably lots of draws too. We would get called by 98, 88, 99, and also 67 or QJ obviously. If hero 3! and V ships, never folding.



Pot: 140
Turn: 3 completing rainbow.
Hero super happy obviously, then V leads 125 leaving ~115 behind..

With our read on V, we can probably remove all 1p hands from his range here, probably draws too. V has maybe 6 combos of sets which we crush, 9 combos of 2p. But if we're going to count all 9 combos of 2p, we need to count all 32 combos of QJ/67 which we're 20:80 against, so discounting those to around 26..

I think it's between folding/shipping. If we flat and the board pairs, V might lay down a straight, and if we call turn we're never folding river, so might as well ship the turn.

Hero tanks, can't believe he might have gotten out flopped with top set, and...?

We may have but I'm not folding. I think you are dreaming if you think villain folds a straight on a river paired board. He has but in 66% of his stack. I don't mind the flat on the flop but the turn is a slam dunk shove.

Click back the flop - most of his c/r hands are either 2p or pair + straight draw, and they won't fold. Then shove all turns.

You're not deep enough to even remotely consider folding.

As played, shove turn.

Easy all in. You described him as playing pretty weak post flop. You're getting 35% vs. the nuts on the flop and that's obviously not the only thing he shows up with. Get it in early.

Top set against so many hands that could think they are best (worse sets, two pairs, pair + draw), I'm reraising the flop. Dude can easily put us on an overpair and is highly unlikely to fold 2 pair+, imo (heck, he might feel he can't even fold pair + draw at this point). There's too many scare cards bringing 4-to-a-straight and shutting down action to slowplay, imo. His weak hands (and most of them are super weak considering there is only 1 TP card left) are probably giving up when we call, plus he doesn't seem like the type to be getting out of line anyways. Is he really limp/calling OOP with QJ/76; if so, suckout 1/3rd of the time.

As played, ditto for turn; let's do this thing before a card comes that could possibly make him fold.

Last session out, two decent players got into a hand. TT vs 98 on T98 board. TT also flatted the check/raise. Turn? T, which shut down his action. Lol.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Why? That's a pretty sohpisticated play. Don't flop enough of a made hand, so decide to bluff with it, but don't lead because that doesn't have nearly as much FE as a c/r and since people c-bet 100% now, a bet is definitely coming from Hero, so get that c-bet in, figure he isn't double barreling air though, so c/r to end the hand and take the max. $40 off Hero when he has under pp's or unpaired overs. If he's playing A4 to hit TP, and when he hits it he isn't betting more than once, I'm not giving him credit for this.

And +1 to this, nothing in the previous HH shows this guy is capable of getting out-of-line.

Gweakestpartofhisrangeispair+draw,imoG

these cards could hurt his range as often as they help, killing action - 3b and set up turn shoves and if he 4b it's not too bad at 100bb to stack off

Yep. From the info provided I think he has 2pair+. Add some JT if you want.

I don´t think any of these hands are folding the flop and we are ahead of the range, so I´m gonna 3 bet (and rep an overplayed overpair) before action killers come.

If V was an aggressive player capable of a c/r with a wide range, I can see the appeal of smooth calling to keep those hands in there that are drawing dead or to four outs and don't know it.

Reasonable responses all around. I was pretty torn on 3!ing flop since I thought the hand ends there against basically everything but a flopped set/straight, which means his continuing range actually is actually stronger..

If we give him a range including all flopped 2p/sets/straights, it's pretty thin (we have 53% equity). Not quite the slam dunk we're hoping for, but still ahead.

You may not limp/call QJ OOP, doesn't mean they won't though lol.

Results:

Yep, shouldn't really give V any credit for x/r with a wide range here.

But that's also simultaneously bad for us because his x/r flop lead turn range should be somewhat nutted.

Flatting is definitely more appropriate against a more aggressive V.

Removing 76o

Board: Th9d8c
Equity Win Tie
MP2 63.82% 62.29% 1.53% { TT }
MP3 36.18% 34.65% 1.53% { 99-88, QJs, T9s, 98s, 76s, QJo, T9o, 98o }

To be fair, we can't remove 76o.. (Especially if you put in 98o and T9o..) I'm also putting in J7s at least (if you read results you'll know why).

Also just because we don't limp call J7o doesn't mean they don't

Realistic ranges:
Board: Th9c8d
Hand Equity Wins Ties
TdTc 57.84% 31,729 1,822
88,99,98,T8,T9,67,QJ,J7s 42.16% 22,879 1,822

Without unsuited garbage,
Board: Th9c8d
Hand Equity Wins Ties
TdTc 54.05% 18,278 904
88,99,98s,T8s,T9s,67s,QJ,J7s 45.95% 15,468 904

We're never folding the flop. It only gets interesting on the turn when it bricks and he leads, since we just lost 15% of our equity against straights by whiffing the turn, and it weights his range more towards sets/straights.

sucks that there are more combos of straights then sets and 2 pairs but we do still have decent equity against a straight. tough to say if VP opens 99, 88 and QJ but its close. Think if he calls off with all his 2pair hands then just 3betting flop is fine. yea you loose value from all the 1 pair hands but also save some from avoid when scare cards hit. As played i shove but really really don't like it. More info on his limping/openning range would help