Thanks for your reply and thanks too to Amanaplan and OP. I always learn so much from you guys.

I ran the math on this scenario and it's not even close: Jamming is way better and indeed stochastically-dominant over calling.

It's a paradox, given V's error of offering us 5-2 on a call when we're ahead.

But the problem is that calling leads to too many action-killing river scenarios. H is not getting paid on almost any "red-card" river. This caps upside at the 610 pot after the call under most scenarios. And Hero can still lose a big pot by incorrectly calling a jam if V draws out or (less bad) H can incorrectly fold to a jam.

This asymmetry of outcomes skews the EV and it's not even close under reasonable assumptions for River action.

Very thought provoking and thanks to all

IMO, getting as much money in as possible with QQ on the button against a range of any 2 is good.

Really interesting to see suggestions to jam. I considered it for a bit, but ultimately decided to flat IP because I wasn’t as sure I was so ahead. I had bloated the pot as is and this was a large bet from villain OOP.

Hero straddles on BTN for 7, SB folds, BB calls, folds to Villain in HJ who calls, folds back to Hero who looks at QQ and raises to 60, folds back to Villain who quickly calls.

Flop: 628 (Pot:$120)

Villain checks, Hero bets 75, Villain calls.

Turn: 628J (Pot:$270)

Villain donks 170, Hero calls.

River: 628J3 (Pot:$510)

Villain bets 100, Hero..?

Some good discussion itt.

If think he's calling off all his draws, then shoving turn is best. I feel like if we're behind on the turn, it's most likely vs a junky two pair, and we still have 8 outs against that.

If you think he's just spewy most of the time, then I think call turn, close your eyes and click call on any river is best.

As played, just call river. If you raise or shove river because lol pot odds, you're probably not getting called by anything worse.

I minraise and snap call a shove.

Call, nothing worse calls a shove
Very obvious with Vs river sizing we should of ripped turn lol

It’s funny bc you wanted this pot big, wind up w QQ in a spot where it is essentially nutted considering pot size+your opponent+ranges, and yet you got tight. It’s common, it’s fine, but if your sizing geometry is destined for all in then execute all in lines with your strongest hands. Shove river.

You will now have to make a crying call. This idiot will show you 5s4s.
I’m all for limiting variance and I initially thought calling turn was superior too. But Browni and Amanaplan got me thinking more about it and the math of jamming is just compelling.

I often butcher QQ hands. I think you have to commit to a strategy from the outset. If you’re bloating the pot you gotta stay aggressive. Otherwise play for pot control to showdown when flop favors V’s range.

thought this was interesting so i ran it through GTOplus.

if we give villian a donking range on the turn of basically just combo draws and 2p+, this combo is a pure call. QdQc and QcQh are pure folds, and QdQh is 50/50 fold/jam.

when river bricks out, GTO is always calling a jam here


but vs this particular villian description i still like a check back on the flop

(edit)

noticed in the sim that villian was never making it to the turn with any combos of 86 as they were always raising those on the flop. So i locked their flop play to calling/raising these combos 50/50. the resulting change was even more folds with QQ, with 2 black queens being the only pure call, QsQd and QsQh being 60/40 fold/jam and all other QQ combos being pure folds

Yes GTO this makes sense. The issue is that I felt that I could assume that so many red cards would kill river action. GTO the V still has lots of river bluffs and even calls to avoid getting exploited. But if he doesn’t and/or he folds red card rivers correctly a lot, the EV of calling just plummets because of V’s exploitative folds.

I would just call the river.

Busted draws aren't calling a raise and worse could put us to a gross decision by reraising.

Some worse hands could consider calling a small raise, but some better hands are also betting small here (but never folding) because they're MUBSy in a hugenormous pot. Obviously we'll be good enough of the time to call getting these odds, but we'll still lose a lot too.

GbutIhateplayingbigpotswithonepear,sothat'smeG

Turn is an interesting spot.

The problem here is that V doesn't have much value. Flopped [2p, sets] should have raised OTF, and not waited to donk the turn. Sure, he can have turned 2p (or perhaps JJ some how), but its not all that likely. He's going to have a ton of hands that picked up equity with the turn and his donk likely represents a semi-bluff with healthy equity, as opposed to a turned (or flopped) made hand which he's taking an odd line with for value.

As such, move in here and live with the variance.

As played, since Hero actually just called the turn, I would just call OTR and make him show.

Preflop the sizing seems a little big, but the result was good, so I'm good with it.

Usually I'd default to a call here, but so many rivers suck. After thinking about it a shove seems good here. I doubt he has JJ because he didn't raise pre. Shove is good.