About $900 effective, villain is MAWG. I don't have many reads on him. I haven't seen him do anything dumb in the 1 hour or so I've played with him and haven't seen any showdowns. He says he folded trip K's (medium/weak kicker?) to a three barrel all in from me earlier. He doesn't seem like a terrible rec player type or anything.



OTTH



Villain is in MP and raises to $20. Fish on button calls, and we reraise to $75 with AhKd. Villain calls and fish folds.



Pot: $170

Flop: JT6hhs

I cbet $100 and villain calls.



Pot $370

Turn Qs

I bet $175 and villain calls, planing to ship it in on non heart non spade rivers.



Pot: $720

River Js

Completes the backdoor spade flush draw and pairs the board.

Hero checks with about $550 behind. Villain bets $400. Hero tanks and ???



In retrospect I wish I bet turn around $275-300, but doesn't change river spot too much I think. Would appreciate line check here.

I feel like as played villain has a ton of combos that end up beating us now.



Potential hands villain gets to the river and bets with: 66, TT-QQ, JTs, QJs... I think villain can get here too with some weaker hands like KQs, 98s, but probably wouldn't bet river. He has missed hearts sometimes but can't have heart nut flush draw since we hold the ace.



What should we do on river with our specific hand, and if we don't call with this, should we c/c river with any part of our range here? How would we play the rest of our range on this board? I would bet bet jam maybe only TT-QQ here. I could have QJs/JTs as well but I think I'd be flatting pre with that hand a lot of the time, although I'm sure a squeeze would be completely fine or even possibly better than flatting pre.

Curious to see what others have to say about this.

Is AJ ever in villains range here? If you haven't seen villain get out of line, it seems to me that he senses weakness with the river check. I'm not sure I could find a fold. But I'm less sure about this one than I normally am. Definitely prefer calling here. Not raising.

Agree with what you said about sizing up turn.

Villains line is weird if he has value here. Qq should be a 4bet pre, prob JJ too. Also find it hard to believe there's no raise with a set on the flop or turn . At this point his boats seem to most likely be 2 pair hands that got there on us.

His sizing looks weak on the river. Hard to gauge without knowing what he's capable of but a jam seems standard with boats and also his missed draws. In most cases he wants that extra $150 when he gets there on you. Weaker players might not be paying attention to pot size and they don't jam their bluffs here. However it's 1/3 and not often do people pour 100bbs on river bluffs at these stakes. So im gonna go with a fold..

As far as our line goes pre is standard. Flop is a c/c . We're rarely folding to any bet he makes and could work in a c/r whenever we want. It's not hard for him to blow us off of this hand if he raises us on the flop and I don't think we get 3 streets with most of our range.

What other hands do we have in our range? Missed draws ,aq,kq perhaps 10s if we wanna work that check into the river sometimes.

Fine with your line up until river. In threebet pots I like cbetting this flop, you'll get folds out of 77-99 and that sort of thing. I don't think you should size up on the turn, you want him to call with his weak one pair + draw stuff like KQ and AQ.

River I agree with checking, and I think it's a pretty clear fold. Against these kind of guys you mostly want to be folding to big bets OTR. It'd be a gross spot if we didn't have the Ah, but having that really cuts down on his bluff combos. I think he folds AJ and KJ OTT and don't think he bets 400 with them if he does have them. There aren't enough bluff combos to balance out his value hands.

I don't mind playing most of our range as a check OTR, as the jack looks like a better card for his range than ours and it's difficult to imagine what he can call with OTR if the jack didn't help him. Like if he has AQ for example, he really needs to be laying that down to a river bet.

Bet higher on the turn. As played, gross river. I am not sure, I will be able to fold here. This looks a lot like QJ, but could be AJ as well. Interested in seeing what others think here.

I think I mostly just call preflop, but I'm passive like that. I don't want to build a huge bloated pot OOP, and I'm also cool with keeping the fish in (especially if I'm dominating him). Yeah, I'll have to check/fold the flop when I whiff, but for this relatively cheap a price with no significant dead money in the pot, I'm cool with taking this route. But that's me.

I think this is sorta a pretty craptastic board to cbet given he just raised/called. Unless he's got an underpair, he should often have a bunch of hands that are going to continue here.

By the turn there's a decent chance this guy has a monster or a monster draw (think of his range of hands that are raise/calling and then continuing on the flop). I PSB it for max value.

I probably check/fold the river. His most logical busted draw is KQhh and that hand has showdown value that he's mostly insta-checking back.

GcluelessNLnoobG

You and I play in different games if QQ- is 4betting preflop. Heck, most games I play in they ain't even 3bet.

Big sets are easily in the range and could also easily be just calling the turn as they realize AK / bigger sets are in play and they don't want to get in hugenormous $900 stacks until they are a lock (which is typically when hugenormous $900 stacks go in at my tables).

GcluelessNLnoobG

Call. V also has AA, KK, KJ and AK in his range. I think your turn bet looked scared. Call and ride the train. If you lose, learn to go 85-85% on the turn and hand becomes much simpler and higher EV

Don't most opponents happily check back AA/KK in this spot? Not nearly as much for KJ/AK, but they're still making a *huge* bet $$$-wise plus risking putting the rest of their stack in play.

GcluelessNLnoobG

We play in different games, you and I have noted this in several threads over time. My V’s can be on air, Q8 or any mix of crap. This weekend I played a hand where $1,100 went in 3 ways on a K93r board. I called $330 AI 3 ways OTF and MHIG (chopped AK vs AK vs Q10). Another hand same session $310 vs $310 vs $200 AI OTF of KdQd5c and i’m Good unimproved again w/ AhKc (vs AJxx and Q8hh). This is all $1/2. The spazz factor is high in my fame and I suspect is higher in most people than people give credit to.

I agree in low stakes players do play like that a majority of the time...villain opened to 7x pre and stacks are 300bb deep...doesn't seem like a standard game too me.

It really looks like a coinflip between AJ and QQ to me.

AJ calling flop and turn then thinking you have KK or AA and the check on the river giving him the green light to bet his trips.

QQ just calling flop thinking he's still behind AA, KK and now behind JJ and TT. OTT he now beats all of those but loses to AK so another call. Then river he has the near nuts and you check and he goes for value. Also I can see QQ not wanting to 4bet deep.

We need to be right ~27% of the time here. I think it's much more weighted to QQ than JJ but it's still pretty damn close.


Oh or he could have quads.

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