Late night 1/2/3.
Hero has been running over the table 6 handed. It is a great table with a drunk running like god, a crazy gambler, and 2 weak fish. One thinking player who is tired and not playing well.

The drunk just got up and another table is broken to make our table full.

SB: solid player new to table ($200).
BB: fish ($150)
Utg: tired thinking player ($400)
Hero: ($750)
MP1: fish ($400)
MP2: Tight solid player new to table. ($600)
HJ: crazy gambler ($17)
CO: reg sitting out.
Bu: weak short stacker ($120)

Folds to hero who opens for $20 with AJ
Fish in MP1, solid player, gambler, BU, and BB call. Gambler is all in.

Flop ($115) A J 7
Hero bets $75 only tight solid player calls after about 20 seconds of thought.

Turn ($265) Q

What is your line here?

Bet/decide.

Likely bet/calling.
But certainly betting.

We often have the best hand, and when we don't we have 13 outs to the nuts.
Pretty much never folding this hand on the turn.

Pretty easy bet 3/4 to full pot and then try to giaa. There is 0% chance I'm folding this turn.

I'm betting between $180-200, and calling a raise here. Unlikely V has a set here as he would have precisely 77(plus we have blockers against JJ and he would mostly likely 3B! that hand pre-flop. Even then he would probably raise a set on that board. I'm betting to get value against all draws, AT and AK which make up a significant portion of V's range. AQ is also in his range which sucks but we have 11 outs to the nuts if V does have that hand. So, basically; when we are crushed we still have 20% equity and I would assume most of the time we have the best hand here...

It seems extremely unlikely he would call with 77 on that flop with so many people left to act, if he is a solid player

Bet/Decide if player raises AI, it is very likely he has AQ and hit 2 pair on the turn. Only pot odds can determine what you do here, really depends how much you bet on turn.

Villian had AQ didn't he?

Although, now I'm considering check/jamming to get max value from AK and AJ here.
I think that might have merit too.

Grunch.

Your opponent in the hand only has ~$105 left? Shove? I don't see how this is anything other than a shove... can't let diamonds see a free river or have them kill your action.

Edit: Oh... You have two players described as "solid player"... I'm guessing now that you are against the guy that started with $600. Yeah... Bet eval IMO... something like 3/5 pot.

Idk, I don't think we can always count on the 87dd, 67dd, or QTdd etc. to bet the turn if we check. Player dependent IMO. When in doubt... Bet!

My priority here would be to make sure I'm not blown off my backdoor nut flush draw.

I think the chances we're beat here are a lot higher than you guys think. Villain is described as solid, so he ought to know we're strong because we bet into a nearly dry side pot (the main pot is big but the side pot is $18). That alone doesn't mean we're no good. The fact that he called out of relative position doesn't mean we're no good either. But one of the main made hands we beat in this spot, AQ, just passed us on the turn. Now we're basically hoping this guy has...what, exactly? AK that he didn't 3bet with? Or a flush draw?

Maybe it is still better to bet/call because with the main pot/side pot dynamic, this guy might check back a lot of turns where we want value. If I'm doing that, I guess I'm going 185 if I feel I can check/fold diamond rivers, and 230 if I'm stacking off on any river. (If the stacks were slightly shorter, I'd consider jamming. Maybe we could have sized the flop bigger.) But bet/folding has got to be our worst option here because of our nut outs. There is no "evaluate"--if I don't want to call a raise, I'm not betting.

Idk man... I basically certain we are beat... or at least were getting raised OTT because... I mean why else is this hand posted lol.

In game would you really bet considering not betting this turn? I mean the thought would run through my head... but almost like clockwork it would be overridden by thoughts of "bet for value you idiot" or "can't let draws get there for free" and then I would subsequently bet $175 or whatever.

Yes. Doesn't mean I would always check, but I'd be considering it.

I mean, think about it...what were we getting value from on the flop? Even if we allow 8 combos of AK that didn't 3bet, there's also 8 combos of AQ, and all the combos of flush draws--which, given that the guy is tight and solid, are a lot fewer than you think. Then there are 4 combos of sets that beat us. Taken in total, the flop is a clear value bet.

But the turn is less clear. Now there are 4 combos of sets and 6 combos of AQ that beat us, AND we have reverse implied odds--if we are beat, our stack is going in, which means we lose more when we're beat than we win when we're ahead (especially because now "ahead" often means we're against a flush draw that has some equity and maybe implied odds against us). That means we need to carefully count combos of hands we beat that would not bet the turn if we check.

It's definitely possible that checking is a mistake here, but if it is, it's probably a small mistake. Similarly, I think if betting is a mistake here, it's also a small mistake because we have backup outs. I don't think this is a clear decision at all, especially because, in a close decision, I'd be inclined to use Villain's timing tell and his relative position on the flop to de-weight draws and weight made hands.

If the queen had not been a club, now I think betting is better because bet/folding is a better option when we don't have the big redraw than when we do. And if the turn had been a low club, I'm bet/calling all the way and it's not close. I think it is specifically the Q or K that make it interesting like this.

All of this.
And esp the bold.

If we bet $200 and he shoves, we've put in $300 and there's $300 more. We've put 1/2 our stack in. It will be $300 more to call and the pot will be $985.

It's very tough because I'd HATE giving a free card w all the money out there but I'd hate getting 1/2 my stack in bad too if we are raised.

Betting is better I guess but I'm probably not folding even if I know it's a slightly bad call.

I agree with what your saying here, although I think we can probably get value for a bit wider of range than you suggested. I guess that point I was trying to make was that if I were playing this hand, I would likely briefly consider checking, but then value bet basically almost always despite having considered checking.

Villain is described as a tight solid player. What else are we getting value from?

Since this is a b/f situation, I'm sizing my bet to be enough that I can get away from if I want. You've put in $95 so far and the pot is $265. Effective stacks are $600 and we don't want to put in much more than 35% and fold. Given those constraints, I'd make a bet of around $130. It extracts value from a FD. The villain is going to face a pot of nearly $400 with $500 left. If he's raising, he's shoving. The pot moves to $900 with us having $375. We'd be getting 2.4:1.

Against a set it is essentially 0 EV. We're behind a bit more a set. I'm good with the fold.

In deepstack play the key concept is to play hands that are likely to make the nuts, in position, for calling a raise.


Don’t reveal the contents of your hand by your preflop play if there is substantial money behind. The reason for this is simple - it’s very dangerous to play a NL hand with substantial money behind when your opponent has a good idea of what your hand is. It can easily cost you your whole stack. So keep them guessing by playing your hands the same when there’s money behind. And the money behind thing is key.

lol.

It's not that what you're saying it exactly wrong, but pretty much just trolling none the less...

Results:
I ranged v's preflop calling range as 22-TT, ATs+, KQs, AQo.
On the flop his calling range is KQdd, AQo, ATs, AQs, AKs.

On the turn he has 6 combos of AQ, 1 flush draw and 2 combos each of AK and AT.
I didn't believe I could get value from AT by betting. I also thought he would call turn, but fold river if I bet all three streets if he had AK. If he had AQ he would shove over my turn bet, but I would be priced in to call.

I thought he would also bet his own AK for protection if checked to.

So I decided checking was bet against all his hands except KQdd.

V bets 130 on turn. Hero calls.

River (520)
5:spades:

Hero checks. V bets 130. Hero calls. V shows AQo.

I'm still not sure about my turn play. My range could be too tight for him.

@OP: really results oriented thinking in this hand.

For example there are exactly 0 combos of Jx on the flop in the range you constructed - why is that?

Do we have any reason to believe that villian is not calling your PF raise with JTs, QJs, KJs? or what about 89s and 9Ts that just picked up tons of equity on the turn? 77, JJ and AJ are heavily discounted because of players to act and to range villian on KdQd. Why would KcQc not call the flop. Villian is good and has position, every KxQx, KxJx, KxTx even will peel sometimes.

oh and we totally forgot AK! why is our villian happily always 3-betting AK? this is LLSNL
and AK is a call for more regulars vs an EP raise.

Bet turn is the best play, And as played, nh

^V would not float with other players left to act behind him. I've seen him mostly 3! With AKo in the past, but call with big suited A.

It is obvious to anybody with a little brain that you don't have any experience/idea how the game is played in real live casino action. According to the 2+2 stats you got some impressive record on posting. In the course of one year sice you joined you got yourself so busy as to manage to post on average 8.66 post per day or 260 posts per month. OMG !!..lol..lol...,

• Total Posts: 3,076
• Posts Per Day: 8.66

When you have time to play after so much posts editing behind your computer. Obviously you don't play the game. You are not trolling, but worse, way worse, you are sincere and believe in what you're doing but have not a clue how we play this game.

Youre prolly right.
Nice read.

Because OP showed a lot of strength by betting into a dry side pot, and Villain is described as tight and solid. There is no way he calls that flop bet with a marginal made hand, especially with more people to act behind him. And there is no way he's floating with a gutshot, even with a backdoor flush draw, facing a $75 bet with a maximum win of less than $750.

I also think OP's flop calling range for Villain is too narrow, but it's because he didn't include AQo and he didn't include a bunch of lower diamond draws. (Also, KcQc is not in Villain's range for a pretty obvious reason on the turn.) Jx is not there, and rightfully so.

As much as you want to berate OP about results oriented thinking, it sounds like you need to avoid wishful thinking.