1/3 500 cap

Villian - MAWG, haven't seen him before but been at this table with him for 4-5 hours. He thinks he is good, but he is mistakin. Likes to raise PF in position a ton over limpers. C-Bets near 100% regardless of number of callers or board texture. Shuts down near 100% on turn unless he really has it, but I have watched him spaz in crazy spots at least twice.

Hero, middle aged long haired white guy. Winning image. Playing standard TAG, when first in pre I'm almost always coming in for a raise, so perception of me could be that I'm more loose aggressive than I actually am. I've been printing money vs villian by just calling his predictable 100% cbet's with any pair and he is obviously getting frustrated with me. A few times when I've called his flop cbet very light with turn\river going check\check I've just immeditaly announced what I have. For example "I have an 8" with 8 being middle pair on flop and he angrily tells me to show it without giving me any indication if the hand I've announced is good or not. Normal etiquette is that he would turn over a better hand or say "Your good" which would make me immediately show my hand giving him the oppertunity to muck without showing.

Note that in this room last aggressor is supposed to show first even if last aggresive action happened prior to river.

Hand

usual 2-3 limpers
villian (~950) makes it 15 from the cutoff (standard preflop raise size)
Hero (~1300) calls with 2h, 2d in BB
one limper calls

Flop (52) 2,9,10 rainbow
Checks to villian who bets 25
hero CR to 75
limper folds
villian thinks for 30 seconds then 3! over my CR to 200
Hero thinks for a minute then calls

Turn (452) 2,9,10,A completes rainbow
Hero checks
Villian quickly tosses out 300
Hero thinks for a bit then calls again.

River (1,052) 2,9,10,A,5
Hero checks


What do folks think of hero's decisions so far? What range do we put villian on and what do we do if he jams river?

Thoughts on any part of the hand are most welcome.



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I'm going broke here. If he jams the river I'm going to beat him into the pot.

I would have 4bet/cib otf and hopefully get him to jam.

I don't love it as I believe he has all higher sets in his range. After 3! flop I put him on all sets (99,1010) and overpairs JJ+ (maybe even tighter like KK+). If the guy is really spazz prone I don't mind a 4! otf. We're quite deep though so I think there's more value in dragging him into deeper waters where's he less comfortable (turn and river). That said I like the flat OTF. Here on the turn I'm puking as I'm expecting to see 99, 1010 and AA a lot of the times. Probably just want to call and allow him to bluff his JJ-KK on the river. It sucks but if he's a bad player that's spazz prone he may take this (bad) line with JJ-KK, and possibly even AT and T9.

You already decided you were playing for stacks when you called the $200 on the flop.

I suck at deepstack.

One of the problems with setmining with 22 this deep OOP is that we can get in horrible RIO situation if someone else is cool with playing for hugenormous 300+bb stacks. In my game, 300+bb stacks go in with just ~nuts-vs-~secondnuts, not sure if yours differs due to the larger BI or what.

So with that in mind I'm not 100% convinced preflop is awesome (although against a tilting guy it certainly can't be horrible) and then I would just bet/bet/bet until raised (where I would then evaluate for how big of stacks, if any, I want to play for). I think check/raising this deep and possibly having to call the reraise is simply building way too big a pot, but that's me and how I think about deepstack. If we've seen this guy spazz for 300+bbs to a check/raise, or if we've been check/raising a bunch of different mediocre crap, ok, whatever, but otherwise I'm kinda throwing up in my mouth against most opponents.

Unless I'm at a huge action table, I very rarely see huge bets of $300+ go into a 1/3 NL pot, especially after we've shown huge strength on the flop and he has shown even more strength and yet he still seems comfortable playing for stacks even when the Ace hits. Does your game differ? I mean, yeah, obviously the Ace shouldn't have hit us, put most opponents I play against deep don't continually start dumping in huge money against this action / turn card with KK-JJ. I'd seriously think of making a very exploitable turn fold here, but I guess reads are critical as too how much this guy can really spazz. Another critical read is what villain thinks of us; for instance, I'm approaching this from my image standpoint, which to the rest of the world I'm sure is nit-tight-and-OMG-I-just-check/raised-the-flop; if you don't have that image, things could differ.

Ditto thinking for the river.

GbutIsuckatdeepstack,sowhateverG

Preflop and flop are fine.

Fold to the $300 turn bet. He's repping exclusively 99/TT at this point. We were only beating T9, QJ and 87 on the flop, and we can rule all of those out after this huge turn barrel. There's just no way that any reasonable player would be this confident putting 300bbs+ in the pot with a hand like T9 on an AT92 board.

This is terrible advice. Ignore this.

On the flop, you weren't sure if villain had a hand as weak as QJ which he simply wanted to retake the initiative with so he could check back the turn. You also weren't sure if he had a hand like T9 here which he thought was the nuts (T9 looks pretty strong on a T92 flop).

But on the turn, you have additional information that allows you to make an exploitable fold. You know that there are a tonne of 2pr combos out there now that beat T9 (A2, A9 and AT are all scary hands to be up against now). This means he's unlikely to fire a massive turn bet with this hand because he's not thrilled about playing for stacks anymore (he might fire a smaller turn bet though like something in the $100-$200 range).

If the turn was a brick like a 5, then it would be a much closer spot and we might be forced to close our eyes and play for stacks, but since this incredibly scary turn card came and villain showed no fear, it's far less likely he has T9 and far more likely he has a set.

Step 1 - don't fold sets
Step 2 - put large amounts of money in with sets
Step 3 - collect money

Given dynamics I'd consider just shoving the flop but you may be a little too deep for that if V isn't whaling off with one pair. As played I'd probably shove turn over his bet, he's in too deep to fold almost anything after putting in $500 already. You're going to get stacked by 99/TT/AA anyway.

Folding turn would be awful, wtf people? Is V just going to give up with an overpair, or any pair really? Hero shouldn't have any aces in his range except maybe AT.

Disagree. I'd think T9 was the nuts in V's spot. Are we really that worried about hero having 22 or AT?

You don't have to get stacks in every time you flop a set, but you probably should.

^This. Some V's will even do this with hands like TJ QT KT because you don't have many aces in your range and they have to bet something, so they hope the ace will scare you off even though their hand isn't that strong.

^^^

Guy has spazzed twice in 4 hours and is irritated w hero. Obviously never folding

How many people 3bet a check/raise on the flop with an overpair when this deep? Most everyone just calls and hangs on for dear life while possibly contemplating a fold on a later street, no?

But admittedly pretty image dependent (both ours and villains). Like, if OMC just check/raised the flop and then called the 3bet, how often is his bottom set going to be good against anyone with half a clue when that person decides he wants to play for the rest of it against him? The closer your image to that of an OMC (which mine likely is, although I'm guessing OP's isn't), the more you have to consider folding, imo.

GbutIsuckatdeepstack,sowhateverG

That's what bad players do....if only I could count the number of times I saw some idiot 3b their obvious KK/AA super deep when OMC just c/r them and their range is sets only, and I want to yell across the table "DON'T DO IT HE HAS A SET!" and had to restrain myself. Yeah.

I also think TT/99 just call a c/r most of the time instead of 3b.

Well this is really what it comes down to for me. Sounds like you need a lotta hands for all that finger counting in your experience, but I hardly need any hands at all. I find most players (even very poor ones) are extremely MUBSy overall, and especially deep, so whenever someone seems cool with playing for huge 300bb stacks warning bells go off for me.

GmaybeourexperiencesdifferG

I have to agree with GG here. A guy playing 1/3 and seemingly willing to play for $950 should be setting off some warning bells when you hold bottom set. I also can’t recall the last time I saw an overpair 3b a flop at all, much less after a x/r, unless it was for stacks in a spot where they know they aren’t folding. To do it with another $700+ behind is pretty damn strong.

I don't think this is as trivial as some are suggesting but given the dynamic I do believe V can have T9, AT, and all the sets except 55 depending on how irritated he is with Hero. Once we call the 3! he has to think his over pair is no good unless it was AA. So leading turn for 300 does narrow his range greatly IMO. Some players take it personal and this player has been seen spewing already without the personal vendetta. From V's perceptive Hero can't have much JJ+ because we flatted pre OOP. We also cant have many Aces when we C/R flop and call a 3!. V has been waiting to get back at us and has finally made a hand. I DO think V 3 bets the flop with all his sets for the same reason. I like Hero's line given the dynamic to c/c after the flop fireworks.

9 combos of sets to worry about vs 18 combos of AT and T9. Don't think I can find a fold here vs said villain given the history. And that's without adding any spew...

Hey look - the pizza delivery boy is back.

Indulge us what going busto feels like.

I remember I once posted a hand where a super passive woman check-raised an AQJ flop and people were saying she could have QJ. That's just ridiculous. Not even LAGs would play QJ that confidently on an AQJ flop.

Now in this thread, people are saying that someone is confidently going to barrel off a 300bb+ stack with T9 on an T92A board. You're delusional if you think that someone is going to overplay T9 to this extent. The pot is already f**king massive and you think they didn't just notice that A2, A9 and AT all beat them now? Hero has shown so much strength too that they would be f**king dying to get to showdown with their mediocre 2pair at this point. They're not going to bloat the pot like this.

I actually watched a hand today at 1/3 NL where someone checked back the river with top set because the frontdoor flush got there and they were worried that their opponent had the flush. The pot wasn't even that big: there was about $150 in there and he easily could've made like an $80 value bet on the river.

Players at 1/3 NL are very passive and make ridiculous check backs in position because they're afraid of monsters under the bed, especially when the pot gets large. There's just no way that your average 1/3 NL player is going to value bet $300 on the turn with T9 on a T92A board. It just wouldn't happen. They're way too passive and scared of hands like AT.

And since the flop action already eliminates AT/A9/A2 from villain's range, then we can confidently put him on 99/TT.

I'm in the 6bet camp on this one.

GalthoughIamnothisbacker,smileyfaceG

Oh the irony when you of all persons are able to school other people on being delusional. Unreal that you even are capable.

Regarding the big AQJ thread for a while back you are referring too, when hero had topset against the old passive lady and she check-bombed flop and jammed like a $1000 on the turn: only me and 8o8 nailed it when we advised a fold because her range is jampacked with K10 combos. The rest of the forum basically wanted to close their eyes and call it off. Just a little reminder since you brought that thread up.

Lol. Now that is a stinger johnny.

But I agree...doing anything other than GAI here is really bad.

Shocker....

well...I can't fold sets so in game I'm certain I'm getting this in, but we do have this read from OP 'Shuts down near 100% on turn unless he really has it'

so I guess the decision point is what 'it' really is in his mind. 'it' often is an overpair for bad villains, particularly KK and AA. So the A on the turn is problematic because it takes away one of the hands he might get a woody for that we're beating, albeit if he's holding A10 on the flop then he's really excited about the turn.

How many spazz flop draws and QQ KK type hands can we give him that he follows through to the river? Probably not that many given hero has called him down light a few times and he probably thinks you're a station.

I think this is a really close spot. there are 9 combos of 10 9 that we think he might play this way, 6 combos of sets that we know he'd play this way and then a few other hands like AA and A10 that we're not sure he gets to the turn with.

If we split the difference and say he checks back 10 9 on the turn half the time and keeps betting the other half then we're playing with 735 eff and a pot of 450 vs 6 combos we're behind and 4.5 combos we're ahead of, then I think think it's super close, we're behind a little more than we're ahead but we're getting pot odds to get to the river

call turn, call river


results??

wierd how he's still firing confidently on the turned ace. Might be a c/f on the river, but no one can fault you for stacking villain somewhere in this hand.

As a rule I'm not folding, probably re-raising flop....depends

Also, sometimes fold 22 pre flop

Question for me is: could he be playing QJ or 78 this way?