Wednesday afternoon at Aria.

V1 is a white woman in her 60s. Has been playing a VPIP/PFR of 20/0 for 50 hands. In one hand I observed she flopped a set of eights on 864r in a HU pot and went x/c, x/c, lead river. She starts the hand with $320.

V2 is an Hispanic guy in his 20s. He's been very loose pre, probably 50/10 at this point. He starts with $200.

Hero switched over to this table an hour ago. Playing about 25/20 at this point. Haven't shown down any hands but won the first few pots I've played. I start with $380.

On to the hand:

Folds to hero in HJ who raises JThh to $15. Folds to V1 in SB who calls. V2 calls in BB. $41 in after drop.

Flop comes Kc Js Ts. V1 leads for $30. V2 calls. Hero raises to $100. V1 quickly (within five seconds) shoves for $205 more. V2 folds. Hero ???

Need to put in $205 to win $480, so getting a little better than two to one. If I give her all possible combos of AK and KQ along with KJ, KT, JJ, TT, JTs and discounted KK then I'm at 39%. Not sure if this is overly optimistic for her line given her passive nature. Seems like she would at least pause to think about it with AK/KQ. Do you see weak tight players spazz out often enough with AK/KQ for this to be a call? Also, does anyone just flat the flop and look to push the turn since JT is not really far ahead of a lot of hands in V's range in terms of equity?

Fold, you are dead. lol @ her line with a set, you can never be too careful. I would expect to see KJ like 100% of the time here. I also would just flat the flop and see what happens on the turn. Your hand isn't that strong.

Pretty much.

Bottom two vs passive all-in? Snap fold.

Grunching ...

As played, snap fold. She is playing 20/0 and leads into 2 opponents including the PF raiser. I'd flat flop and fold to a strong turn bet.

Based on your description of her previous play I can only put her on 7 (very rarely, 8) different hands here.

AK made 12 ways

KQ made 12 ways

AQ made 16 ways

KJ made 6 ways

KK made 3 ways

JJ made 1 way

TT made 3 ways

AA made 6 ways (although not likely, even the most passive of players will reraise preflop with AA)

Of the 59 possible holdings here there are 30 we beat and 29 have us beat.

We are about 35% to win against this range.

I agree with Samo on this hand, flat the flop and assess our options after the turn.

As played I think we have to fold here, we are beat far more often than not.

I'm cool with preflop.

I would just flat the flop. Ya, sure, it's drawy as hell and we have an ok hand that can easily be overtaken. But V2 flatting the donk is scaring the hell out of me. With the way she plays, every crushing hand (including hands as strong as KK) are in her range, and there are a lot of hands that crush ours (AQ/Q9/KK/JJ/TT/KJ/KT). There are also a lot of hands that are doing decent against us (overs + flush draw + gutshot). With this SPR, I think I'm cool stacking off against V1 but not against V2, and a raise gets us on that road. So I just flat and evaluate the turn card/action.

As played, I guess I don't mind the flop raise size although typically I would go more (*if* we're raising, which I'm not). As I say, I felt committed on this flop against V1, and we can't stick in half the effective stack vs him just to fold, the board is drawy, so once V2 is out of the picture I think this is a snap call as played.

ETA: Rats, I got V1 and V2 mixed up. I fold. And I still don't like our flop raise.

GcluelessNLnoobG

This. Easy flat flop against initial bet and fold turn to most bets against nits and tight players

what an incredibly optimistic range...
i would say we more or less beat no hand she plays that way (sets and AQ basically)

Pretty sure I'm folding here.

Her range looks like made hands.

If she checks her flopped sets, then she either is super passive, and only bets with the stones, or trappy.

Either way, when she donk/3b shoves her range is super nutted with the occasional really strong draws.
Things like QQx, KQ, KX all of which are doing really well against your range.

Tap the table, say "Nice hand, I was bluffing", and muck it face down.

Results:

I do end up folding after thinking about it for maybe 30 seconds.

In game my flop raise was based mostly on thinking, "Oh, a donk bet. This can often be K9s, KQo, etc. Let me get a little value out of that in position." In hindsight I really don't have great equity against any hands in her range, so I see now that a flat would have been good even if it did give the third player pretty good odds to draw with the flush draws in his range.

Big take away I gather is that bottom two pair just isn't a very strong hand on a flop like this; it's only slightly better than TPTK (and in this case, TPTK will have nine outs to beat us, so a very slight advantage over that hand).

Most of my thoughts have already been posted, but i want to chime in with couple of points.

1) Most of the value in a hand like bottom two pair lies in valuetowning top pair kind of hands, and/or charging draws in a proper way. In other words, its constructive to keep in the weaker parts of your villains continuerange on this board. By putting in the raise on this wet of a flop you just dont get action by many hands that you beat: if you get action your in trouble the vast majority of the time. Its the classic "folding out worse, getting called by better" issue.

2) Absolute hand value compared to the actual board. Bottom two pair holds lots of reverse implied odds on this kind of board, wich we have to be aware of. Its a completely other thing if we flop bottom two on lets say A-7-8 board against a tight open raiser preflop, where we can own big A type of hands like AQ or AJ.