Whether I bet here really depends on my opponent's tendencies and how he sees me. What kind of badLAG is he? Will he shove with a naked big heart on the turn? Does he bluff? What does a check on the turn mean from him? What does he usually open to $10 with? What's our image? Does he think H is tight and will fold if H bets? Has H been caught bluffing?

However, my gut vs. a badLAG is to bet/call ~$200.

1) He's the kind of bad LAG that loves to make "pot sweetener" raises. Another hand he raised to $10 UTG with K7s. He likes to build up a pot but often he doesn't really know what he's getting value from.

2) I don't think that this player does a huge amount of semi-bluffing, but he might do some.

3) He sometimes bluffs. I saw him bet AQ on an 85A96 board and I wasn't really sure what that he was trying to accomplish. Maybe thin value?

4) He is known to be very stationy. He literally never folds to 3bets and he gets very sticky postflop, even calling down multiple streets with middle pair.

5) He can basically have about 80% of hands when he opens to $10 in this spot. Hands like 22, A3o, J4s and 87o are all within the realms of possibility.

6) I don't think villain cares about our image at all. He's not much of a thinking player; more just a button-clicker.

I will post the turn and river results later. I just stopped the hand here because I think that this is the key decision point of the hand. Everything else was pretty automatic.

Given reads turn is an easy bet. I probably make it $200+.

If he’s a station then it’s even more reason for this to be a fist pump bet. Size a bet where you get a call on rivers from Mr. Sticky Station.

Taking the player involved out tho, we should be thinking of all situations less about the specific players, etc. but how does this hand fit into our overall balanced strategy? Which hands are we betting and which are we checking and why? Once that is laid out then where our sets, and specifically bottom set, fit in will become more clear.

Betting is wrong.

What hands do you think he is calling you with on flop? Mostly flush draws and sets. Sometimes top pair

You aren't getting any hands that beat you to fold on turn. When he has a higher set or a flush sorry but you are pretty much dead

If you bet and he shoves your basically committed but I would say more than 80% of the time behind in equity/dominated when this happens

Check back evaluate river.

Also I hate the guys that say fold pre or w.e but folding out 22-44 from my preflop range has increased my live winrate

We're not betting into a huge station to get him to fold mid set+, we're betting into a huge station to get value from bottom set. We're not bluffing.

We have bottom set here. Sorry but you make no sense. Ur not getting value when ur opponents range crushes you, if there was a term exactly opposite of extracting value thats what you are doing.

If u disagree I'm happy to discuss it with u

Have you ever heard of a hand in poker called one pair before

Yea and I just told you that after you raise the flop and he calls he has a flush draw or set more often then the times he has top pair. 80%. The other 20% would be when he has top pair w maybe Ah Kh etc or two pair lol..

So are you willing to bet 200$ or more with 200 behind that 20% of the time you will take down the pot or 80% of the time when he shoves on you and your drawing to 30%? Or worse 1 card.

What more is there to discuss? Not betting the turn and jamming non heart rivers seems criminal given these reads.

Let me guess shoved turn and he called you with top pair and you scooped? Yea ok lol

Also calling down with middle pair is very different than calling a raise after leading

OP stated a few posts back that this guy is station and get sticky with hands like middle pair. He calls our bet way worse than a set if so. He’s trying to give you his money so just take it.

Bet half-pot or slightly less and evaluate river

My question is what do you do if, as per runout, Villain donk-shoves turn

TBF the read went from 'bad lag' in the OP to super station in the later post.

If he's mad enough to just keep calling with 1 pair then I guess I'm ok with betting but it still feels like we're gonna get stacked by flushes and sets a lot.

I mean sure, there are stations who'll call down a couple of streets with 2nd pair HU, but thats still quite a stretch to the kind of super station who'll bet/call a 6x flop raise in a 7 way pot with 2nd pair, or even top pair.

Results:

check behind and pot control. if the river bricks, snap call anything <200.

if you fill up, go broke. if river is a 4th heart, flip a coin.

Yes?

Pot, kettle.

True but irrelevant here.

Lag-fish who opens K7s UTG, whose starting range here is 80%, who never folds to a 3bet, who calls 3 streets with middle pair...that's the guy who can't have worse?

i think you raised to much on the flop i wouldnt have raised to more than 100$. turn i would have bet/folded 100$ also. if you go 200$ hes prob folding AhAx which you still want in. if he calls the 100$ then jams river id lean towards fold but not really sure. if checked and no heart on river jam the rest in

Ding ding ding! OP's read is clearly contradictory and useless so I go with my own read based on betting patterns.

Really? I never wouldve guessed.