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Old 10-08-2017, 11:21 AM   #1
Submerged
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$1-3 Bottom 2 pair, put in a lot of $$?

Reads / Villains in the hand:

EP - MAWG (50's) ($350). Has been at the table since opening about 4 hours ago and is up the $50. His raising size has been on the small side every time he has raised. Been $7 - $10, when the table has been averaging $13 and up depending on limpers. I have seen him show up only with pocket pairs on his raises and seen him at showdown in limped pots with both AJo and AQo. I have also seen him raise to $10, and check fold on boards such as Q73r. I am not sure if he raises AK, but my read is he is pair heavy when he raises.

SB ($635) - 20's white guy with a poker zip up sweatshirt on. He bought in for $500 30 minutes ago with 5 black chips and is now playing with 4 black chips and about $125 in red $5 chips. Haven't seen him do anything out of line yet and no real read.

Hero BB ($850, covers) - 40's white guy. First hand at this table 4 hours ago, EP villain saw me bluff off $150 on a flopped straight draw, turned flush draw against a station that called me with third pair on the river barrel. I am the only player that has three bet at this table and most hands that I am in, I have come in raising or three betting. I am sure I have an aggro image to the EP villain and am unsure of my image to the SB

On to the hand.......

Dealt 86in the big blind.

EP villain open raises to $10, gets called by one field caller that is irrelevant to the hand. The small blind calls and I call as well. Thoughts on the call here (as opposed to raise, I think folding is bad). The reason I have presented raise as a viable option is that I have begun 3 betting pre much more at $1-3 due to the very passive play and the ever increasing rake (currently 7$ at $50 with $4 of it out at $20 at the casino I am playing at). If my hand was higher and suited (think KJhh), I would three bet with 2 other callers.

Flop ($34, yes I have taken out the rake) K68

I lead $25 after SB checks. I usually default to the standard check to the raiser, but I think with the dynamics in play here (passive PFR who gives up a lot in a multi way pot I do not want this to check through). Thoughts?

EP raiser calls the $25, field player folds and the SB makes it $105. Because I block the two lower sets and I am pretty sure SB wouldn't flat KK pre, I think I am always ahead and the SB is probably on a combo draw or has the K high draw since that was the card that was not a spade on the flop. Because I think with position I can play pretty well against the SB here and I expect the EP PFR to fold, I call. The EP raiser surprises me and calls as well. I am not sure what to make of the EP players call and find it tough to range him now (maybe he has A high flush draw or is the type to not be able to lay down aces post, I am not sure). My read is that with this type of action if he did have KKK, he would raise all in here.

Turn ($348) J

Small blind checks and it's on me. I am $235 effective with the EP PFR and $520 effective with the SB that raised on the flop.

I will post further action after some comments.
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Old 10-08-2017, 11:45 AM   #2
Eholeing
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Re: $1-3 Bottom 2 pair, put in a lot of $$?

Don't lead flop
As played $250 ott
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Old 10-08-2017, 11:56 AM   #3
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Re: $1-3 Bottom 2 pair, put in a lot of $$?

I'd shove over SB's c/r. This is almost always a combo draw or pair+draw, and having him fold out his equity is a great result. If he calls, we are very near a flip with that range, so though we lose a few Sklansky bucks over the call, it is a very small theoretical loss for some very nice FE. Considering that we are at the very bottom of our value range for this play, he prob folds every KsXs combo.

AP to turn, bleh. We have to bet here, imo, but SB's line is so weird that I kind of hate life. If he does a double c/r, we are really hating life. OTOH, maybe he's freaked out by getting two calls of his c/r and is just trying to see cheap cards. Giving a free card sounds bad to me. I also wonder about what EP is sticking around with. Is he passive enough to have sets in his range here?
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Old 10-08-2017, 12:42 PM   #4
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Re: $1-3 Bottom 2 pair, put in a lot of $$?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Eholeing View Post
Don't lead flop
As played $250 ott
Can you elaborate on not leading the flop? Do you have a 100% check to the raiser range? And if you don't, under what conditions do you lead? I very rarely lead flops as the pre-flop caller out of position but thought this was one of the times that I should.
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Old 10-08-2017, 12:49 PM   #5
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Re: $1-3 Bottom 2 pair, put in a lot of $$?

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Originally Posted by Garick View Post
I'd shove over SB's c/r. This is almost always a combo draw or pair+draw, and having him fold out his equity is a great result. If he calls, we are very near a flip with that range, so though we lose a few Sklansky bucks over the call, it is a very small theoretical loss for some very nice FE. Considering that we are at the very bottom of our value range for this play, he prob folds every KsXs combo.
I thought about it quickly so as not to tank too long and call attention to myself and figured that this player would not be raising the non combo flush draws and would only raise the KXss and combo straight + flush draws that he would call off correctly to. Against that range we are around 50/50 and if I was OOP to him I would just stuff it and be profitable, but in position I think a call is more profitable being able to act after I see what comes on the turn and potentially get my $$ in as a significant favorite.

As to what I think the EP raiser has.....my read was that he was holding on and would 3 bet all in with a set. probably AA with As, maybe AKss. I can't think of too much more.
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Old 10-08-2017, 07:49 PM   #6
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Re: $1-3 Bottom 2 pair, put in a lot of $$?

My donkbet/lead oop is close to 0% and even i would strongly consider leading this flop given texture + reads.
Flop is fine imo. Shoving to fold out equity would be better if his value/calling range doesn't have us in jail so bad. K8s/88/66 may not have many combo's but there are still some out there. And some small % of the time the EP V is slowplaying KK and has us dead and buried.

AP, the turn is a pretty tricky spot but you have to bet. Way too many cards to fade. 250-300 seems ok.
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Old 10-09-2017, 04:45 AM   #7
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Re: $1-3 Bottom 2 pair, put in a lot of $$?

Great thought process and I like how you played the hand so far.

Check turn and bet turn is close.

After SB raises but checks turn you can discount his sets, he may have K8 or K6 or flush draw.

EP V has overpair he is stubborn with or flush draws as well but really His range is uncapped.

You block both lower sets and both V's should not have KK so if you decide to bet you are repping a set and should be ready to fire third bullet on favorable rivers.

Check is safe, and if turn checks through you may have the best hand some of the time but not often enough to make betting clear profitable play.

This is a very awkward hand but once EP V overcalls alarm bells should be going off in your head. In real time I think check turn is best play and see original raiser action unless given some really good read.

Last edited by flopturntree; 10-09-2017 at 04:53 AM.
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Old 10-09-2017, 11:56 AM   #8
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Re: $1-3 Bottom 2 pair, put in a lot of $$?

I would rather call with KJs pre and 3! or fold 86s. It's a bad hand OOP.

Don't lead flop. As played 3! over SB's x/r.
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Old 10-09-2017, 02:11 PM   #9
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Re: $1-3 Bottom 2 pair, put in a lot of $$?

For those saying don't lead flop, why? We dont need much balance (and balance is over rated live), but with the passive nature of the raiser we can lead gutshot straight draws too for balance.


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Old 10-09-2017, 02:38 PM   #10
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Re: $1-3 Bottom 2 pair, put in a lot of $$?

Leading flop here is good with 4 players in the hand, having it checked through with bottom two on a wet board is a diaster
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Old 10-09-2017, 02:50 PM   #11
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Re: $1-3 Bottom 2 pair, put in a lot of $$?

Feeling the need to donk bottom two because you're not confident the EP PFR will c-bet a K-hi flop is the quintessential argument against flatting preflop and why the hand is a 3! or fold.
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Old 10-09-2017, 02:54 PM   #12
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Re: $1-3 Bottom 2 pair, put in a lot of $$?

In my opinion, These are the kinds of spots that if we play well will boost our win rate considerably, folding 86s out of the blinds multiway is simply too weak, and we cannot always 3b it

There are merits to checking on flop but betting is more +EV
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Old 10-10-2017, 01:02 PM   #13
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Re: $1-3 Bottom 2 pair, put in a lot of $$?

I like the bet on the flop with bottom 2, since you don't want to get counterfeited. This screams being up against draws and top pair. I jam that turn.
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Old 10-10-2017, 06:16 PM   #14
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Re: $1-3 Bottom 2 pair, put in a lot of $$?

Results: I flatted the flop so that if a non-spade came off on the turn I could get the SB to stick his $$ in bad. Because the EP raiser also called the flop and may call this turn bet, I assessed that I would need to bet pretty big to get the SB to not have proper odds to call with the big combo draws. I cut out $275 and then sized up to $310. EP raiser turbo mucked and SB tanked and mucked.

Post hand the SB started talking about what he had and said that he had 86o. I challenge him by saying don’t lie, I know what I had and that’s pretty tough for you to have (implying I had a set). He says he had a club and diamond (so I believe him). I guess I bluffed him off of a chop. Even though my read was wrong, I am happy with how I played it.

Although more than a couple say to ship the flop, I still think flatting is more ev when you are in position and can get villains to stick their $ in with worse odds on the turn.


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Old 10-10-2017, 07:04 PM   #15
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Re: $1-3 Bottom 2 pair, put in a lot of $$?

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Although more than a couple say to ship the flop, I still think flatting is more ev when... you can get villains to stick their $ in with worse odds on the turn.
Yes, but what about when you can't?
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Old 10-10-2017, 07:21 PM   #16
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Re: $1-3 Bottom 2 pair, put in a lot of $$?

Shipping the flop is a mistake and I'm not in love with your turn bet but I'm glad it worked out

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Old 10-10-2017, 07:23 PM   #17
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Re: $1-3 Bottom 2 pair, put in a lot of $$?

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Yes, but what about when you can't?


When you can’t get them to stick their $$ in on the turn, you have denied them their equity and you make out + there too. It is only a disaster if you end up folding the best hand (which in this case I probably would if he bets if a spade came on turn, in this case though he probably puts me on spades with his exact hand and we probably go to showdown with checks).

When in these 50/50 situations for ranges, I like trying to be more gambly and aggressive when OOP, and like to flat more in position and try to make better decisions on later streets. It doesn’t always work out but it is my general strategy.
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Old 10-10-2017, 08:03 PM   #18
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Re: $1-3 Bottom 2 pair, put in a lot of $$?

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Originally Posted by flopturntree View Post
Shipping the flop is a mistake and I'm not in love with your turn bet but I'm glad it worked out
Nobody said we had to ship the flop. Pretty easy to go $275-300 flop -> $315-340 (ship) turn. Gives poor odds for a flush draw to call on both streets.
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Old 10-10-2017, 08:28 PM   #19
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Re: $1-3 Bottom 2 pair, put in a lot of $$?

Yes thats true johnny but then I would expect all sets to ship over our raise and sometimes flush draws to ship over our raise as well so we are torn between a rock and hard place.. If we get jammed on we can't call and it would be a disaster if we had to fold to a flush draw, not to mention we would be losing value from original raiser

I think smooth call flop is best play followed by fold and raising/jam to be the worst
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Old 10-10-2017, 08:58 PM   #20
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Re: $1-3 Bottom 2 pair, put in a lot of $$?

SB never has KK and there is 1 combo each of 88 and 66. If he has those hands we are getting stacked so folding is not an option. Problem solved.

The original raiser only started the hand with $350. He is no longer the primary target once SB and his $635 starts making noise. Our attention shifts squarely onto him.
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Old 10-10-2017, 09:26 PM   #21
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Re: $1-3 Bottom 2 pair, put in a lot of $$?

I don't like thinking "if he has those hands we are getting stacked" when he does have 88 or 66 by just calling we leave room to outplay on future streets
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Old 10-10-2017, 09:27 PM   #22
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Re: $1-3 Bottom 2 pair, put in a lot of $$?

Not to mention he can also have K8 or K6
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Old 10-10-2017, 09:30 PM   #23
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Re: $1-3 Bottom 2 pair, put in a lot of $$?

If you are maximizing your value vs. his range you are getting stacked by the lone two combos of 88 and 66 (and the lone two combos of K8s and K6s). There are 18 combos alone of KQ - K2 and AQ - A2.
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Old 10-10-2017, 09:35 PM   #24
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Re: $1-3 Bottom 2 pair, put in a lot of $$?

After he raises us his only hands are flush draws sets or two pair with some other random outliers/spew like AK, I don't agree with re raising on flop definitely is very ambitious, also with original raiser left to act who can still have KK, 88 or 66 surely if he makes a play we are forced to fold
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Old 10-10-2017, 09:37 PM   #25
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Re: $1-3 Bottom 2 pair, put in a lot of $$?

Dude we are never folding. This is why you don't call raises with 86s OOP and why you don't donk into the PFR.
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