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1/3 Bomb Pot: Is this a fold or call? 1/3 Bomb Pot: Is this a fold or call?

08-04-2018 , 02:29 PM
I have just been moved to this table as the other table just broke due to the two super fish being bust and calling it a night. I can already tell this table is trying to have fun as everyone is straddling and drinking. We all agree to do a bomb pot about an hour in to playing with this table.

V1($170) 40s white guy who played all day in a promotional tourney and seems irritated he is running bad.
V2($800) 60s white guy who is aggressive and not afraid to splash around. Me and him played a pot earlier that went to showdown where he called my 3bet with T9o.
V3($60) 30s white guy who is very rattled and he made some comment earlier that if anyone starts joking with him when he's losing he could kill you lol.

OTTH

Pre: $10 bomb pot 8 ways w/ H on BTN

Flop($80): T84 V1 leads right out for $40, V2 next to act calls, folds to V3 in HJ who goes all in for $60, folds to H($600) on BTN who looks down at AT, H folds, the other two call.

Turn($260): T848 V1 checks, V2 checks

River($260): T8486 V1 checks, V2 checks

V1 sighs and says nothing, V2 turns over T2 V3 shows 97o for straight.

I felt like the fold decision I made was fairly quickly but after seeing the hands that played I am not sure. I do not want to be results orientated but maybe its too tight to fold with the backdoor flush in play also
1/3 Bomb Pot: Is this a fold or call? Quote
08-04-2018 , 04:17 PM
With no money invested post flop I would lean fold in general but it's a marginal situation. It depends heavily on how good of hands I think villains need to be playing here and how likely I think V1/V2 are too shove behind with a draw.

It's not so much the possibility of the backdoor flush but rather that it's a bomb pot. People can have all sorts of marginal draws and worse TX they think are worth playing on the flop.

With 3 opponents there are lots of possible combinations. The ones you are well head are rare because they involve draws blocking each other and/or multiple villains with worse TX. The ones you are crushed are a little more likely and become steadily more likely as you take worse single pairs out of range for villains. And there are lots of ways villains can turn up with draw combinations that give you 25% - 35% equity.
1/3 Bomb Pot: Is this a fold or call? Quote
08-04-2018 , 05:08 PM
Do I understand correctly that everyone put in $10 blind pre? And now you have TPTK and are facing a half pot bet and two calls (V3 is essentially calling, he doesn't even have enough to minraise) and you want to fold? That is insanely nitty. If I have less than 300, I jam myself.
1/3 Bomb Pot: Is this a fold or call? Quote
08-04-2018 , 05:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dellerrrr
I have just been moved to this table as the other table just broke due to the two super fish being bust and calling it a night. I can already tell this table is trying to have fun as everyone is straddling and drinking. We all agree to do a bomb pot about an hour in to playing with this table.

V1($170) 40s white guy who played all day in a promotional tourney and seems irritated he is running bad.
V2($800) 60s white guy who is aggressive and not afraid to splash around. Me and him played a pot earlier that went to showdown where he called my 3bet with T9o.
V3($60) 30s white guy who is very rattled and he made some comment earlier that if anyone starts joking with him when he's losing he could kill you lol.

OTTH

Pre: $10 bomb pot 8 ways w/ H on BTN

Flop($80): T84 V1 leads right out for $40, V2 next to act calls, folds to V3 in HJ who goes all in for $60, folds to H($600) on BTN who looks down at AT, H folds, the other two call.

Turn($260): T848 V1 checks, V2 checks

River($260): T8486 V1 checks, V2 checks
don't post the results in the OP, but Im calling the flop with TPTK and BDFD.

ran a sim gave the initial bettor any T, A8, any flush, 2pr+ but took out sets of 88s or TT'S as I think they would raise the flop. also added QJ and 97 to all the callers as well as overpairs, (should have taken out the two sets only for the over callers not the inital bettor or the short stack but you still have enough equity to call...)
The over callers to the flop bet, I gave all Tens and Fds (must be K high FD on the flop)(also prob unrealistic as some overcallers might have 8s)

 Equity %Wins Hi %Ties Hi %Wins Hi CountTies Hi Count 
AsTs28.2698%27.2562%2.0465%16353712279 
97,JQ,AxTy,Ax8y,Ax4y...18.3406%17.5537%1.5942%1053229565 
97,JQ,AxTy,Ax8y,Ax4y...17.8105%17.1450%1.3485%1028708091 
97,JQ,AxTy,Ax8y,Ax4y...17.7128%16.8978%1.6530%1013879918 
97,JQ,AxTy,Ax8y,Ax4y...17.8662%17.0345%1.6850%10220710110 


the eight is not a great turn but not the worst so I don't mind either a call or fold...Id prob just fold unless I improved as I'm a nit

Last edited by kimoser22; 08-04-2018 at 05:42 PM.
1/3 Bomb Pot: Is this a fold or call? Quote
08-04-2018 , 05:28 PM
You obviously can't do this math at the table, but you should have some sense of the relative strength of your hand.

You lose to sets (7 combos), two pair (21 combos), and overpairs (21 combos). That means each person has a 49/(47 choose 2) ~= 4.5% chance of having a hand that is better than yours on this flop. Thus, the probability that no one has you beat is (1-0.045)^7 ~= 72.5%.

So your hand is quite strong if you take this $40 bet, call, "call" to not really be much extra information above unknown, and tbh I don't think it is much information - they still have all the flush draws, all the 56's, some 8x, etc in their range.

Moreover, even if you're beat, you're not dead. You can still spike an Ace or running spades.
1/3 Bomb Pot: Is this a fold or call? Quote
08-05-2018 , 04:52 AM
Raise flop to $220. It is extremely unlikely that someone has TPTK beat in a bomb pot on this board.
1/3 Bomb Pot: Is this a fold or call? Quote
08-05-2018 , 09:06 AM
Hmmm I see. I will have to reevaluate how I play these then. It's jus in my experience whenever these bomb pots go down it always ends up with a guy stacking off one pair that's behind
1/3 Bomb Pot: Is this a fold or call? Quote
08-05-2018 , 08:03 PM
Raising is spew and not for value. Call and be prepared to fold to turn action. V2’s call is terrible.
1/3 Bomb Pot: Is this a fold or call? Quote
08-06-2018 , 12:50 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by browni3141
Raising is spew and not for value. Call and be prepared to fold to turn action. V2’s call is terrible.
What? This is a perfect spot to raise. Hero almost always has the best hand, there are a ton of draws H can raise with too, and V's are rarely folding any Tx in a bomb pot. Please explain how raising is spew and not for value, because I cannot disagree more.
1/3 Bomb Pot: Is this a fold or call? Quote
08-06-2018 , 04:37 AM
Terrible fold, I would probably raise since no one looked that strong and only one player is deep enough where getting cooled hurts too much

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1/3 Bomb Pot: Is this a fold or call? Quote

      
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