Quote:
Originally Posted by ChrisV
You're trying to rig his range here with these assumptions dude. If both "he's very likely shoving on the river" and "he can beat jacks full when he shoves" are correct, then via logic we're left with "him checkraising turn means he probably beats jacks full". That seems crazy, so rather than believe that I'm going to come to the conclusion that one of your premises is wrong, probably the one involving him virtually always shoving river. Likely what happens is that you call the c/r, fish ****s his pants realizing he doesn't have the nuts, and bets like 1/3 pot OTR.
I mean "he very likely checkraises flop with AT, AJ or KQs" seems like a reasonable assumption as well and would lead us to the conclusion that you're almost always good on the turn. Clearly this guy has done something odd at some point in the hand, but you seem intent on assuming that the odd thing he has done isn't the checkraise. I assume this is because you know that he actually showed up with a better full, but I don't and there's no way in hell I'm folding a boat to a loose fish.
This ^ /thread
Given description of villain I am never nut hugging deep vs these players live. If he is super passve post flop, well - we can start to build an argument that we're DOA otherwise I hike up my skirt and call down. Even an aggressive Villain isn't shoving the river with anything except maybe top boat and quads this deep - qualify this with it is still a non-zero % of the time but i expect it to be small enough we can profitably ignore it. The likelihood of you encountering a villain at 1/3 good enough to realize they need to turn their flush into a bluff to fold out your middling FH coupled with the fact that they realize you might be disciplined enough to even make that fold is just absurd.