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Old 12-25-2018, 10:20 AM   #26
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Re: $1/$3 bluffing double paired board

Originally Posted by ChrisV View Post
This is not true. Sizing doesnt depend on how often you're betting. From a GTO point of view, sizing depends on what fraction of your range is bluffs. The larger your sizing, the more frequently you can be bluffing. (If this seems counterintuitive, it might be easier to understand that if you're betting, say, 1/10th pot, that should very rarely be a bluff, right? Because it's getting called so much). So if OP wants to bluff a lot here, he's correct to be using large sizing.

the bet sizes you use up until the river are a function of the % of the pot that you are entitled to, i.e. your equity
what you are describing is a river situation when your betting range has the incentive to split into thin value and nuts or air. you can then choose the bigger sizing with your nuts/air portion to increase the ev of both. bluffs are there so your value bets get paid more often and value bets are there so your bluffs get through more

what you are essentially saying is that it's ok to bet this turn 2x pot because you are now allowed to bluff even more. might as well then open shove the flop 100% of the time? bluffs are just there to get more of your value bets called, it's not the other way around

solvers think it's often a significant loss in ev to drastically polarize your range on flops and turns. the most +ev lines focus on arriving at the river with your range uncapped and your opponent's range capped. you are then in the situation you've described and can force your opp to be indifferent between calling or folding with a bluff catcher

betting this turn close to pot skews your opp's range to high equity hands and limits your own value betting range to fewer combos. so while you think betting the turn big in a vacuum is better, you are losing a much bigger % of the pot on rivers

you can see how it's more +ev if your opp gets to the river with 70% of the range that c/ flop and then folds a large % of it to river bets, rather than only being able to continue with 20-30% of his range and then not having anything to fold because his range is all strong bluff catchers. you can either pick up a smaller pot on the turn or a bigger one on the river

furthermore, a small lead allows you to lead more combos because your fe comes from the air part of v's range and that is in-elastic to the size of your bets and because you risk less when you have to b/f
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Old 12-25-2018, 01:06 PM   #27
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$1/$3 bluffing double paired board


Like wait, this line never seems to work out for me. Against overaggressive players Iíll throw in some river checkraises, though, and that usually works out pretty well.
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