1/3 at Bellagio during WSOP / 8 Handed at 2PM

MP: Sat down with $260 stack about 30 minutes ago. Hasn't play any hands yet, except 1 or 2 from the blinds. Doesn't look horrible but also doesn't look like a 8bb/hr winning regular.

Hero: $250 stack down from $300 starting stack. Been at the table for about 2 hours. Lost a few pots after cbets didn't get through. No special hands.

BB: OMC although I get the vibe that he is a regular here. Mentioned he had been playing for around 20 hours straight. I would assume a small losing regular over the long run that grinds hours for comps. $200 stack.

MP opens to $10, Hero flats with A3 in the SB, BB flats.

$30 Flop [5J5]
Checks through.

$30 Turn [5J5] [4]
MP bets $15, Hero raises to $45, BB folds, MP tank calls $45.

$120 River [5J5 [4] [7]
Hero fires $60

Is this a good hand to be turning into a bluff? Should I be flatting turn instead? I feel like I am representing a 5, a set of 4s. Is that too narrow, as I would probably lead with a 5 or a set of 4s on the turn now that I think of it.

My thoughts during the hand was that MP should be weak after checking back the flop. What do you guys think? Also, what are your thoughts on my sizing as well? Thanks!

It's a fine hand to bluff but your sizing on both turn and river is too small. As played I would probably do 55 and then 80-90 on river...

You must have checked turn? Probably better to lead turn/lead river.

Villain most likely has a hand like 10 10 - 8 8 that you are trying to fold out. You are probably never getting a big jack to fold even with that sizing at 1/3 unless opponent is really nitty.

Agree with randomcards, except I think the turn size is OK. Bigger would be fine, but I like the 3x. I would go higher on the river, though. $80 - $90 is good.

Cliffs:
fold pre, if not fold, 3b
x/f turn, but if we choose to bluff, lead out. AP, x/raise larger.
if we choose to barrel river, bet larger


I'm not calling A3s in the SB against an unknown. To call, I'd like more info on V to guide postflop -- either that he's sticky so I can get paid if lightning strikes or that he can be moved off his hand with enough pressure. If V had been active so that I think his raising range is pretty wide, then I 3b this. I wouldn't mind a call if we were IP.

I don't mind the bluff, but I'd lead the turn. If V has nothing (which is what we want) and we check, we're hoping he bluffs at it, which isn't all that likely for LLSNL V. When he bets, it's more likely he has at least a little something.

If we're going to bluff, I think larger. LLSNL V's tend to call to much. We don't want to offer them a great price to snap us off when we bluff. I'd make it $60 so he's calling $45. It's only 1/3 more than $45, and I think increases our chance to get a fold more than 1/3.

If we're going to barrel the river, make it larger. The 7 doesn't really look like it's changed anything, so we want V to think we've just got a good hand and are trying for value. AP I'd probably make it $100 (I generally prefer larger bets whether I'm going for value or bluffing), though I think $80+ is also OK.

I'd fold pre. A3s isn't as profitable as it is pretty OOP. Lead the turn for sure as you don't have many better bluffs here and can rep Jx/5x/44. As played I'd just call as your raising smells fishy and fishy lines get looked up.

If you're going to bluff lead turn

Fold pre - inactive player opens; oop; shallow stacks.

Turn - lead rather than C/R, which is what 5X would do. Realistically repping 3 combos of 44, with more combos of semi-bluffs.

60?

You are repping a 5. V has 88 or 99 or something. 95 min on the river.

Sounds like a tight game. maybe even go 115.

I tried to bet the amount that I would also bet with sets and a 5. I normally raise 3x and then bet around 1/2 pot on the river. Is this wrong? I'm getting the impression that I should be betting more?
I like to bet half with my value hands and bluffing hands? Should I bet 3/4 on river with value hands as well? 44, A5, etc.?

I called originally because I knew BB wouldn’t 3bet, and I was looking for a 2 diamond flop to give me a nut flush draw and I was planning to check/raise.
When MP checked back, I figured he must be weak and when he bet on a blank turn I figured I could raise him off the hand and take it down right there.
When he called, I knew the only way to win the hand would be to bet the river. He called pretty quickly on the river even though he sort of tank called on the turn after the check/raise.

Looking back on the hand, I like a 3bet instead of a flat here as well.
Also, I think I should have led out on the turn instead of check/raised. I would lead out with all Jacks, 5s and sets anyway.

V had AJ so I guess I was never getting him to fold anyway. I should have realized that a hand like this should be checking the flop some % of the time because of how dry it was instead of getting out of line because he didn't cbet.
I wonder if V would have called with a hand like 77 or 88.

Against someone who doesn't look horrible, I would just fold preflop. We're OOP and there's no fish in the pot (nor does BB sound like a fish) that pad our immediate odds and make it easier to make our IO if we flop well. My guess is that calling raises in likely HU pots OOP with speculative hands is simply not profitable unless the difference in skill level between us and the raiser is quite significant.

If I think everyone is a pushover (one of the only reasons I would be in the pot) I might consider just donking small on the flop and see if I steal the pot (possibly with the best hand). I don't mind check/folding either (but I'm not sure how profitable that makes the preflop call).

What do we make of MPs flop check back 3ways? A lot of people would cbet their air here, no? So when he doesn't, that might lean towards a monster or perhaps a hand that he simply wants to get to showdown cheap with (ex. a pair). Not sure I'm love with the check/raise on the turn, especially since we're really only repping a weird 5x or perhaps 44 (don't those donk turn though?) as every other hand we have that is likely an overplay, although it certainly does make it tough for smallish pairs to continue.

Overall, one of main bluffing rules is that I don't attempt to bluff unknowns. I simply don't know what they are about (do they even have a fold button?) and they don't know what I'm about (i.e. I don't have a history with them to utilize my super nit image). This guy seems like an unknown. So bluffing (especially on non-scary cards) just ain't gonna be in my playbook here, and I think it is mostly spew.

GcluelessNLnoobG

You know how often that is going to happen?

Not nearly often enough for this to be our reason to make the call.

Villain played the hand well. Pretty dry board, not much reason to bet other than to protect against random K/Q, and nicely sets up a bluffcatcher (a highly underrated method of making money, possibly even a better method than valuebetting at certain tables).

Unlikely you'll make money off of this guy OOP, which makes preflop a trivial fold.

GimoG

What GG said about bluffing unknowns (other than standard cbets, semi-bluffs, etc.)

But if you're going to bluff, don't worry about your bluffing/value bet sizing; worry about V's that are playing their own hands.

It usually takes quite a bit of time and effort to figure out what someone's betting size tendencies are. You have to see them bet a value hand (and it gets to showdown). You have to see them bet a bluff (and it gets shown) and likely more than once. Then you have to account for other factors -- number of people in the hand, board texture, how good or bad their hand actually was, how much they'd had to drink, etc, etc, etc. Very, very few LLSNL V's are putting in that effort.

Hell, I am putting in that effort and I still often can't get a line on V.

[Obviously, sometimes you find very transparent V's and can figure it out in a few orbits, but I'm assuming you're not one of them.]

For someone playing their own hand (most LLSNL V's), bigger bets are scarier than smaller bets. Don't balance; do the thing most likely to scare a typical V.

If you're going to bluff. Which you shouldn't here.

Yes, very very good and excellent play. When you checked the flop you actually convinced all other players that is you who's got the 5 for trips. So, that you implied you slow payed it on the flop only to come out on the turn. This is a very sophisticated play for sophisticated players that understands what you try to convey. Only now after you got called on the turn you bet small on the river because you are afraid and have no idea what's going on. In a way you could be good if villain got 32 and he's drawing to flush on the next hand. Very very good play. Experience shows that bluffs at the spur-of-the-moment are the most successful and most profitable over the long run. I run extensive simulations of those kind of plays and it surpasses even AKs for TPTK+NFD on the flop.

How you guys have find out about this play? - Did you got extensive private coaching from some poker specialist? - Or from Google? - Why I'm asking is because all those sophisticated plays used to be our exclusive trade secrets and now are all out there in the open for everyone to use them and make money, actually get rich. Sad but very true .. More's the pity...,

Fold pre, fold turn. The river bet may be the worst street though. What exactly are you trying to fold out with such a tiny bet?