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Originally Posted by RagingOwl
I agree with the bolded, and most of the last paragraph. However, I disagree with how you're constructing your range.
We can still open a high % of hands, but we want stuff that's gonna flop more equity that we can leverage when bluffing, since that is going to be our primary source of income here. (Him hitting a 2nd best hand and paying off is not that likely).
If our plan is to bluff often (terrible plan vs this villain, but in general ok, lets go with it for now), even bare overcards typically have more equity than say, a BDFD+ a BDSD. Also, we usually have better blockers with high cards.
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So definitely go lower on suited connectors than 98. I'd go all the way down to 45. I'm also playing a ton of suited Kx, quite a few Suited gappers, Q9s, J9s, and all the pairs.
It's just really hard to hit a flop with AJoff. If your c-bet bluff doesn't get through, usually you've got almost no equity. Whereas hands with more suitedness and connectedness will have enough equity to continue betting.
Feel free to throw Ajo into pokerstove or equilab and see how it does on some random flops vs villains range, and then do the same for 45s or other low SC's.
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And finally, I don't think the cliche 'raise or fold' works at LLSNL. You need a limping range. And if you're going to have a limping range, you'll want some strong-ish hands in there.
You can often get two strong streets of value in a multi-way limped pot when you hit with AJ.
Why do we need a limping range? And if we do, there is absolutely no reason to balance it with strong hands when playing at LLSNL. Limp behind some small pairs or other marginal hands and exploit the hell out of your opponents when you flop a monster.
And btw, quite often we can get 3 streets of value in a SRP HU when we hit with AJ.
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Originally Posted by RagingOwl
No, this is not how you should be thinking about your ranges.
Your raising frequency has a ceiling. At some point, if you raise too much, you can just get 3-bet and slow-played into oblivion. So there are only so many hands you can open.
Again, you're talking about people exploiting us. That just does not happen at llsnl. I could openraise 100% and people still wouldn't adjust correctly. I'd definitely be losing money opening 100%, but that's because my overall range would be too weak and i'd whiff way too many flops, not because people would be playing back at me with the correct frequencies.
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If your plan is to iso, c-bet, and take it down (a fine plan), then you should be doing it with hands that flop lots of equity even when they miss. AJo isn't one of those hands. If you whiff, you're just left there with your dick in your hand.
Q9s, 97s, and T8s are all superior hands for this purpose. Vastly superior.
Let's give this particular villain a limp/c range of 50%. You can make it wider or narrower, the %'s mostly stay the same.
Equity Winst Split
Hero
43.53% 41.99% 1.54%
{ Q9s, T8s, 97s }
Villain
56.47% 54.93% 1.54% { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J4s+, T6s+, 96s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, A2o+, K5o+, Q7o+, J7o+, T7o+, 98o }
Equity Winst Split
Hero
60.98% 59.16% 1.82%
{ AJo }
Villain
39.02% 37.20% 1.82% { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J4s+, T6s+, 96s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, A2o+, K5o+, Q7o+, J7o+, T7o+, 98o }
Even if it is true that hands like Q9 etc have more playability (not even sure it does), good luck making up that 20% equity gap vs a loose passive fish.
His range has a lot of weak hands, you want a linear range vs those. AJo is higher up on that line than Q9s. At the end of the day it's just that simple
.