Villain (SB): 50s middle eastern guy, aggressive ($400)
Hero (EP): mid 20s Asian, aggressive image and has shown this guy a bluff ($450)

Hero opens $13 with 77. Villain calls.

Flop: J53 ($27)

Checked around.

Turn: 2 ($27)

Villain bets $18. Hero calls.

River: Q ($60)

Villain bets $45. With that sizing he's just repping Qx or better. Doubt he's doing that with AJ. Plenty of ace high's, flush draws and just random air he can have. Since I bluffed him and showed he may be more likely to try to "get even". Close my eyes and toss a chip in?

just cbet the flop and take it down on this dry board.
as played we have no idea about villains range, i would probably call turn and fold to the river bet, though we have to call it sometimes, but usually I would fold in this very marginal spot.

Villain should be the one bluff catching you on the flop and turn...

C-bet flop.

AP, it's fine to bluff-catch

Villain likely has a jack and doesn't believe the queen hit you. A different matter if he has been caught bluffing a couple times though.

I think it's fine if you decide you're going to play this hand to induce a bluffing line from V, as long as you think he's going to do that often enough. But if you're going to play passively and feign weakness, possibly inducing a bluff, and then not know what to do when a possible bluff occurs, you probably should have had a different plan. Generally prefer plans that don't put you in a difficult spot when they work.

I think standard here would be to cbet the flop nearly all the time; planning to barrel many turns and sometimes the river. The flop is dry and probably hasn't hit V's range. You could conceivably have a J or an overpair for your EP PFR. While you have shown a bluff before, that's not necessarily enough for V to start calling you light.

You could also check the flop and raise the turn small for a cheap showdown, as long as V won't see through that.

An LLSNL V probably thinks you don't have a J or better when you check the turn back. He might think you have JJ and are slowplaying, but that's obviously not a likely holding.

Since V is aggro, he might well have stabbed the turn with nothing, just to attack weakness.

When you don't raise the turn, V is likely to be pretty sure you're weak.

The Q is a scare card for weak holdings (other than AQ or KQ, which don't necessarily call the turn) so he might well stab again. I think it's reasonable to snap this off.

OTOH, LLSNL V's tend to bluff less than they should, and tend to bluff two streets even less than that. I think it's probably also reasonable to fold here. His range is very likely polarized to 2P+ or a pair of 5's or less.

Sure, I guess snap this off. But I think LLSNL V's bluff less than they should, and bluff two streets even less than that. I think you're often paying the man off and would have made more by just cbetting the flop.

I'd typically just open limp this at my loose table but looks like your small raise (with a bluffy image no less) somehow managed to narrow the field to HU in position with initiative, so great result. Is it expected?

I like the check back against an aggro opponent, especially if we have a bluffy image. I think he might check/raise a lot here which will get us in line to playing a huge pot with a very mediocre hand (undesired). Against ABC opponents I would bet here all day, but against this guy I like the check back for pot control and for setting up a bluff catcher. We're really quite happy aiming to get to showdown for as cheap as possible here, imo.

I also call the turn; plan is working perfectly so far.

Not the greatest river card but I think overall with this dynamic we have to lean more towards calling on the river. We lose a lot of the time, but I think we win enough overall to be profitable.

ETA: Others have made arguments for alternative lines, and that's fine. What I like is that you formulated a plan for the whole hand (a plan that I think is a fine one against this particular opponent) and now it's just a matter of following the plan. Nice hand if you followed thru with the plan and called the river, imo.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Check Bet Bet lines are generally value IMO, I would fold.

I don't really like a 2 street bluff catch with 2 overcards on the board that hit villain's range in the face.

With the second highest card on the board being a 5, there are not many holdings that would thin value bet the turn. So to bluff catch you have him bluffing the turn with a hand that is not improved by a Q.

What can he have and be bluffing? AK with a sb call? AT? Suited ace? 56s-9Ts? 66 or 44? KTs?

Because you are losing to 88,99, TT, TJ, QJ,KJ,KQ,22,33,55,A4s.

I would guess a lot of these better hands don't bet the river (such as the better underpairs and some of the Jx hands), noting that we also have an aggressive image (and he might turn a lot of his mediocre but better hands into a bluffcatcher himself). My guess is that, like most, he's leaning towards polarized on the river (biggish obvious value hands vs air).

GcluelessNLnoobG

Call turn is bleh, but probably necessary given your ck flop line (hand not really strong enough to call barrels, you shoulda cbet)

AP River is pretty close. Basic hand reading would suggest his only Jx hand is QJ and his only Qx hand is Qxss (and QJ), so he is bluffing with 45/missed FDs OR is value betting sets/46/A4/some baby 2p. You slightly block his bluffing range, but not hard enough where it's a concern... I really just don't like the number of value combos this guy has... just close, ask him if he wants you to call, he'll give it away :/

And many of the worse hands I listed also don't make much sense given play to date.

And I don't necessarily agree about villain checking a jack. Given hero raised pre, checked back the flop, and flatted the turn, villain should expect a check back on the river. Hero may be aggressive, but the parts of heros range that are behind a jack (AK, pockets) have showdown value and are not super likely to bluff. TJ or KJ would more likely bet/fold I think. Although I would normally expect a jack to size smaller.

If you are going to say he would not bet the underpairs we are behind, that can also stretch to the ones we are ahead of.

But what about his complete air range? After we checked back the flop an aggressive player could easily be betting ATC on the turn; he doesn't just show up with value hands versus busted draws on the river, imo.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Including "complete air" just to qualify a call is a pretty big leap to make without some serious history in a spot where we can already reasonably account for an awfully wide range.

I don't know if anyone's had this take but I kind of like raising the turn after checking back the flop. Maybe something around $50.

My reasoning here is that you're going to have a lot of hands you will want to trap the flop on a board this dry, like JJ-AA, maybe 55. It's also possible you could have A4s and turned the straight.

You really just don't have that many bluffs in your arsenal on this board after raising from EP pre. Maybe KQss. For this reason, if you decide to check the flop I think mixing in some raises on a coordinated turn like this is a good idea.

If he calls you, you need to barrel almost all rivers, I would check back a J but mainly barrel all others.

If you make a pot sized river bet I would expect him to fold all of his Jx hands, low two pair hands, and all of his draws.

(Am I crazy in suggesting this line? Let me know what you guys think)


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I would rather do it with bottom pair because you have much more equity against his continuing range. Pocket pairs don't make a lot of sense to bluff in these spots because when called by better you only have 2 outs to improve vs 5 outs if you do it with bottom pair.

I know it's not a great hand to pick but does hero really have any bottom pairs in his range? It's just one of those hands that's borderline call/fold, that I can see merit in turning into a bluff.


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I don't like raising the turn at all. We have a very mediocre hand, one that could be best but one that could also be worst. With these types of hands we're looking to get to showdown as cheap as possible and keep the pot small; we don't accomplish that by raising.

GimoG

checked around implies more than 2 people.

AP fold. he checked flop trying to get you to bluff and he has a hand that beats you imo.