AP snap river.

This is where I disagree. Villain raised preflop, whiffed with A high / flopped a flush draw and... check/calls?

GIdon'tseenearlyasmuchAx/flushdrawsinhisrangeasothersdoG

In villain's spot against most opponent's I'm c-betting 100% of my range. Weak players with weak pre-flop ranges rarely have a hand they're willing to call with especially considering that weak players don't float much either. However, if villain decides hero is a decent/tight opponent and he wants to check some hands, something like AQ seems like a slam dunk check/call.

I agree he probably doesn't have a flush draw, more because we block most of them than because he'd always c-bet them.

We should be 3-betting pre. If you want a strong hand to flat then call with AKo, IMO. The only reason I can think of to not 3-bet pre is if villain's range is super tight to begin with and he rarely folds.

3-bet pre, check flop, bet turn, just call river. Raising river is an interesting idea, but folding shouldn't even cross your mind.

Make it 200 otr as played bc you rep nothiing of value well except 33 and some horribly played boats, lots of dumb bluffs tho. He might level down on a call further than you’d expect.

If he somehow has a T (other than TT) then he is not up and coming, he’s a spot. Probably quads.

Pre should not be a raise even though it’s generally a poor overall strategy to frequently 3b hands worse than AK and then flat AK. Here against a quiet, seemingly competent UTG open it’s fine because you can make money doing it and often have the hand he’s repping in a spot he wouldn’t expect.

Oh yeah, his line is terrible no matter what he has here especially if you have perceived bluffs. Ax, TT, AA, 33, bluffs, nothing wants to ck ckc bet. He’s gonna get wrecked.

He has the preflop lead, your hand is underrepped, and with the few possible 10's he has in his range he is betting flop for value + protection sooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo ooooo call. I would say raise but then if I get reraised I hate it. esp since you're holding As.

There's no reason to hate it if you get reraised. If you get reraised you just fold. There is probably not 1% of players who would reraise the river without a T (or a weirdly played 22)

I like flat call pre, I prob reraise the AKo some % of the time.
AP I like betting the flop here very very small between 1/3-1/4 pot. This induces a call from AQ/AJ and KQ hands which we have reverse implied odds vs our holding.
Now on the turn we should be betting large about 80% pot. Here we can rep a turned gut shot: KQs, QJs, KJs. Aces: Ak, AQ, AJ. And monsters: JTs, T9s, ATs. So a large bet is nice for our range.
Now as played on the river I’m snap calling and I expect to be against quads a majority of the time hehe XD

But it's not just the fact we can get away easily if reraised (which we can). We have to be sure we are going to get paid off by worse a decent amount of the time, otherwise our raise is pretty much just a freeroll for him. Admittedly this might be fairly image dependent (and so I'm guessing I should be just flatting here a lot more than some others here).

GcluelessNLnoobG

Yeah but we rep so thin: ATs, 22, TT. (=6 combos) That we can get hero called by AQ and AJ from a thinking player.

And this goes back to everyone else seeing a lot of AQ/AJ in this guy's range, which I simply don't given his flop play.

GcluelessrangingnoobG

Reasons to bet 10 OTF

Not sure what this means?

All's I'm saying is that the majority of players fall into two categories. Aggro players will typically bet their whiffed Ax on the flop hoping their opponent folds. Passive ABC players will typically check/fold their whiffed Ax on the flop (while moaning about how this hand never hits and they hate it and they might not even raise it next time). The percentage of players that fall outside that category and check/call are very small. They consist mostly of completely clueless noobs ("I HAZ AQ!", which this guy ain't), or some guy that is a level or two ahead of most everyone in the first two categories (and even then I'm not super in love with check/calling A high OOP, but I"m obviously a level or two behind).

GimoG

He ended up having quad 10’s

Do you guys think he could merge here with like KK or QQ once the turn gets checked back?

I know I cap myself by checking back the turn but I think against a really really good player maybe he could get pot with like KK expecting to get called by 99 or something crazy especially after I check turn

Nope

In general unlikely that he has KK/QQ for value and more unlikely given sizing.

GG,
I disagree about him not check calling Ax, I don’t think it’s super common but we can agree to disagree on frequency.

If we assume you are right turn becomes close. If he’s not calling AQ he isn’t floating and won’t bluff river. The question then becomes if a hand like 99 is more likely to call us on turn or river minus whatever we lose when we give him free equity and he hits his two outer.

This is getting a bit off in the weeds but if we are playing against other guys who are tough regs in our game I think betting here also makes sense to protect our bluffs. We want to rep value when we have hands like flush draws and we can’t just rep Tx.

I disagree with GG alot as many posters well know, but in this thread he is spot on. So much wishful thinking regarding ranging here its ridicilous.