TAGish V ($400) raises $15 over fishy limper who calls any 2 suited cards for any amt ($300), H calls AQcs OTB, fish calls

Flop ($50): Qd Td 7h
V bets $35, H calls, Fish calls

Turn ($155): Ac
V bets $90, H ?

I don't think V is barreling into 2 callers with anything worse than AK, but I think I can discount that hand a little too given flop cbet and turn betsizing when KJ got there. Also, I'm not sure if worse is calling any raise from a perceived TAG nit (Hero) except NFD exactly.

Also, the fish could easily have turned the nuts.

Where is the fish and the raiser in this hand? It looks like fish should have checked flop and turn before villain acts. Also, I assume you cover both.

I think I call and evaluate. But if I get a vibe that fish is waiting to shove I could get out of the way. For the most part though diamonds didn't get there and fish can easily be on other straight draws or have a worse 2 pair. Top 2 is too good to easily fold.

Fish is UTG (irrelevant as he just cold called a $35 3bet with J5s in BB) and V is UTG2. I am BTN.

Stacks are $300, $400, $320 respectively. So V covers me and the fish.

My thoughts on the turn were synonymous to yours. It's so hard to fold although I'm having difficulty coming up with many hands vs V that I am ahead of when he bets biggish into 2 players. Most 1/3 players would bet like $50-60 with AK (or even AJ) in that spot as a blocker to "find out where they're at"

$320 is awkward. If you call the 90 you are close to committed.

Still hate to fold but I understand why your not enthusiastic when villain continues with a bet that commits him against fish. Fish really doesn't worry me here, unless I have some live read that he suddenly likely his hand better on the turn there are too many worse hands that call flop. Villain does. He raised from EP, got 2 calls on a somewhat wet board, obvious draw gets there on turn and he is still betting.

If I find a fold here it's more because I don't think villain has a worse 2 pair in his range, isn't betting draws and isn't bluffing. The only part of his range we beat is AK and even that doesn't always bet flop and turn.

^ Correct. Even if I call turn, I don't know what to do if he bets river.

Which makes me wonder if the flat pre was all that good to begin with?

3bet pre, as played don't fold 2 pair to 60% pot bets?

3b pre, ap call turn decide rivers.

That's the trap. But can you range a 1/3 V betting a huge $90 (in absolute terms) with a worse hand here?

The point is his sizing basically dictates we call.

Even if there was zero difference in his range between a $90 bet and a $150 bet, we should be calling the $90 bet more.

I'm not talking gto im just talking not getting owned in spots where villains can have worse and their sizing makes it super easy to call / evaluate because of pot odds and our equity.

He has 89dd, J9dd, Ax diamond combos, QTs, AT, AJ, AQ, AK, QQ, TT, 77, KJs, and buttons in his range. Theres always buttons.

Here's a pretty conservative snapshot with only one AJ combo and no assumed button clicking.

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

1,276 trials (Exhaustive)

board: QT7A

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
AsQc	50.16%	552	176
KdJd, KsJs, KhJh, KcJc, 77, TT, QQ, 8d9d, AhTh, QhTh, QsTs, AK, AdJd, Ad9d, AQ	49.84%	548	176

Well yeah, I guess that's exactly why I called.

PS. If we don't boat up OTR, are you folding? Because he's obviously going to bet again.

IMO, there's only one hand we should be worried about at this point, and that's KJ. While the turn bet is substantial, I feel if you call, you are most definitively pot committed IMO. Assuming you just call, your SPR will be <1, which pretty much commits you. There are way too many river cards that you don't want to see (any 6, any J, any K, any diamond for starters). So I don't see how you can call OTT and then reassess OTR. And I don't see how you can get away from top 2p at this point. So it's a pretty clear shove IMO.

There is no such thing as committed (except when facing an all in and you have a draw who's equity is > pot odds)

There's also no such thing as calling turn so have to call river.

This is because each street villains range has betting frequencies and in live poker those frequencies go from 100% cbetting flop to 50-75% betting turn but then WAY down otr to nutted hands and a few bluffs only. Villains don't value bet thin and they rarely 3 barrel bluff, which would usually make river a fold vs a shove here (but a turn call still correct).

Hes just gonna check most of his range otr besides the nizzles and allow us to sd or value jam. We also get to showdown on certain scary rivers such as a diamond. Finally every now and then the gods smile upon us and an Ah rolls off otr.

I think there are arguments for all 3 plays preflop. If we think Villain is attempting to isolate the fish light, then I'd lean to a 3bet. If we think Villain is just playing his hand, I'd probably just fold (low IO, high RIO against a tight range), although flatting has some merits to bring along a dominated fish hand.

I'm also calling the flop.

Very troublesome that this guy is still continuing into two players when one of them is a fish. Still, the board is very drawy and yet he hasn't bet a huge amount (you'd think he'd want to charge the fish more), although I guess he could easily have a set and be scared someone straighted. Tough spot, imo. I swear sometimes I think half my money is made by making hero folds, and this *might* be that spot.

ETA: I didn't realize Villain raised in EP, where he shouldn't be getting nearly as out-of-line as he could be in LP (which I originally thought he was). This is a fold for me preflop.

Gthisiswhyfoldingpreflopisn'tbadG

It may feel this way, but is it actually a given?

The straight fires again. A missed flush might just fire.

But imagine you have any of his other hands, and you've been called behind twice. Are you going to fire a third bet for value on that board? Or just look to call it down.