V1 (475)- 40 yo white male, lag, capable of spazing with air
V2 (400) 40 yo white male, tight
Hero's Image (900)- 25 yo white male, tag

Preflop (4):
Hero is MP dealt AT
V1 limps UTG, Hero raises to 15, V2 calls from LP, V1 calls.

Flop (43):
T66
Checks to Hero who bets 30, V2 folds, V1 c/r to 60, Hero tanks for awhile then calls.

Turn (163):
A
V1 bets 150, Hero jams for 400, V1 folds.

I wanted to charge fds and combo draws. I think he could call with AJ+. If I call I am not sure how likely he is to shove river with air.

Since he's capable of spazing with air I'm flatting turn to keep his bluffs in.

The shove is kinda bad imo. you are folding out all 10s, and bluffs. He's trying to rep a 6, why not call and keep the bluffs in his range in? Flush only has about 18% chance of hitting, plus he can spaz with air, there is even lower chance that he hits a better hand otr.

Lol... Back in December had almost the exact same HH, except the river was a K so I didn't pair my A.

Villain called my shove with JJ. Then went on for an hour about what a great call it was.

The shove works nicely against say AdXd, but thats quite a small part of his range. Agree a call is best to keep him invested and may induce a river shove which we can call (if safe)

I have no problem overlimping this hand preflop and it's tending to be my default (depending on situation). It plays well multiway, so we're cool with seeing an eleventeen way limped pot. I don't think raising is bad, but it does have drawbacks (raising from MP could easily see us OOP postflop, plus we will often run into hands that dominate us, plus we don't always narrow the field here, all of which suck).

Due to the nature of V1 getting spazzy, and conservative me not really wanting to play for stacks, I wouldn't hate checking this flop. The obvious drawback to this is that we allow a free card (we might kick ourselves a bit seeing a K/Q/J or diamond turn), but with a tricky person involved in the hand, I'm more for eliminating a street of betting with a showdownable hand, and then making sure I showdown. As played, I probably also call the min check/raise, but I also have the sneaky suspicion things aren't going to get any easier on later streets, and now we're playing for stacks (hence why I like a check better).

As played, I would probably tend to let villain hang himself and just flat the turn, especially since he's already given himself rather horrible ~2:1 odds to chase a flush draw. But pot is getting big now, so I can't argue with getting the money in now.

ETA: Next time, you might want to cut off action after "Hero jams for 400", because Villain's reaction to this might taint responses.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Thanks for the replies all. I think if his range is weighted towards air a call is much better. Though calling looks pretty strong and that means he might not continue barreling river.

If his range is weighted towards draws I think I have to raise here and price him out.

You are right GG I should always leave the last action out until after discussion, will do that in future hhs.

Not sure how many LAGs limp/call utg?

I guess more more loose passive pre sometimes, and lag postflop.

Call turn, jam clean rivers if checked to and snap off most rivers

I like calling turn. You are way ahead here almost always.

Grunch: your bet actually works better as a bluff against 6x than it does as a value bet against Ax. Ax never shows up here. But you are telling Villain you have tens full or aces full.

If we aren't folding the flop I think you need to call the turn and call the river. You make more letting him ship with air than you do by charging him or whatever

While thats true, i doubt many rec llsnl players will fold a 6x for 250 more into ~650

+1

I said it works "better", not that either purpose of the bet is particularly effective.

I think you get Villains folding 6x more often than you get them calling Ax. If both of these happen small percentages of the time, like 15% versus 10%, it does not contradict what I said.

This (And tank call after agonizing a bit to induce a river shove)

Grunch

Think about your shove and what worse hands will call and if better hands will ever fold? On this board texture you have top 2 pair on a paired board. No worse 10 is ever calling IMO so you should flat turn and play poker in position. If he is likely to spaz he will be put in a very awkward situation Otr.

It allows him to bluff all his missed draws and bet all worse 10x and Ax type hands. You a get far more value by letting a bad player hang himself. If you were OOP my whole statement changes.

I think it's more of a ranging issue. You seem to think he has a lot more FD's then air. Is he capable or likely to gii w/ these draws? I'd think he could have a lot of the hands that have FD + gutters when he limp/calls utg and then c/r flop KdQd, KdJd, 7d8d, 9d7d. If this is true I like the shove.

Most lags are more likely to raise combos/ FD,Gut w/ overs then they are to c/r top pair hands, especially on this board where it's hard to rep nutty hands - 6x types.

In this spot to me, it comes down to is he more likely to bet/call the turn w/ a biggish draw, or is he more likely to bluff shove the river if he bricks?

Far and away more villains will call it off w/ a draw ott before they bluff shove blank rivers.(especially when the pre flop raiser already called a flop c/r and a psb ott!) nh

your not losing value from any A's really. A lag is probably limping no A's utg. If he would he's c/f or bluff catching, c/c, a small bet otr. Never shoving Ax after you call the turn.

the sole part of his range your losing value from by jamming is the Tx that may c/c a river bet. But again, how many T's does he limp/call utg and then c/r the flop with? I'd think not many at all.

At the end of the day he has a big draw or air here almost always. I'd much rather target the big draw w/ a turn shove, then call in hopes he goes crazy otr. Let's be real, he has no A's next to no T's and he really isn't going to rep 6x from utg otr after you've called a flop c/r and a turn psb really ever.

imo jamming is much better than calling

edit- I thought you had Ad for some reason. Even though I doubt he limps many A's utg, if he did decide to limp/call Adxd he is super likely to stack off w/ them ott after taking this line. all the more reason to raise.

I am going to attempt a little math here, let me know if you think these figures are too far off.

Let's assume his range is %50 fd+gutters and 50% air that is drawing dead

If I flat I am sacrificing about 22% equity to hands like fd+gutters which is $100 divided by 2, for the chance that villain will shove with air OTR. He is a little crazy and capable but a call ott should set off alarm bells. Let's say he shoves river with air and missed draws %50 of the time that would be $125. So my EV for this play is about $75.

Now let's analyze the jam. He always folds complete air. Let's say he calls %50 and folds %50 of the time getting a little less than correct pot odds with fd+gutters. So he calls 25% of the time and the difference between the correct pot odds needed and the actual pot odds is $38. My EV for this play is about $10.

I think the problem with your analysis is that he would be folding his draws ~50% of the time. In my experience a player that is capable of bluff shoving complete air isn't folding their bigger draws regardless of pot odds.

Another issue that can't be over looked is how strong you look along w/ board texture. Your the pre flop raiser, you called a flop check/raise, and you called a psb ott. You look ridiculously strong. On this board even the most spewy of the spew monkeys is going to have a hard time thinking they will get folds w/ less than a psb remaining.

I have a hard time believing any player bluffs the river in this scenario while at the same time I think the villain described happily gets it in ott w/ his big draws. just my opinion

Fair enough, if he always calls it off with a fd my EV is about $20 or $30.

We can only speculate on how often he actually shoves OTR in this spot.

check the flop, to c/c obviously

this balances our range and will induce bluffs and pot control

on paired board there 0 hands we can get 3 streets from, just check then bet turn and river on good runouts

Why in the hell is c/r flop, lead turn with zero equity a solid play vs. a reg who just raised pf, lead flop and called a min c/r? I have been trying to understand this type of line and it makes no sense to me...