Game has been running for a while, the table mark has left and the relevant V in this hand is to hero's right.

V has shown the ability to c-bet in raised pots, and DB as well. But I haven't seen many hands at show down so don't have much of a read other than he's in his 20s, can bet flops/turns when he's the pfr. He was calling the table mark wide IP when the mark was there.

Hero has been playing tight mostly to get in good spots vs the table mark. Haven't shown down many hands, no bluffs

8 handed game, hero opens $15 utg, ep, mp, bu, sb and V in bb all calls. LOL

Flop: J:T:4:
check, check, hero $50 into $75, folds to v who ask "how much?" and instantly matches my $50.

Turn: 5:
check, $100 into $175, and V insta-all in. hero has has $240 more left, V covers


Hero?


Mod: Editied out results.

Please try to wait on posting the results. I've removed them from your post.

hey, mb, i edited my title as well.

No worries. Here to help.

Our villain voices out loud "how much?"

Hmm.

I am beginning to detect a pattern among my random opponents.

Against my bet, or against other random opponent bets.

When they say "how much" and then flat, they are either drawing or weak 9 times out of 10.

Has anyone else seen this tendency?

Unless for some other "live read" reason I think our Villain is somehow nutted, to me this is a call.

Turn sizing is bad and that’s the source of your dilemma moreso that V.

Bigger turn bet.

As played, call.

I thought betting a bit more than half pot was a fine bet. But, why bet bigger? and why call it off after V c/r turn?

Looks like you need about 47% equity to call this off. Throwing in a sample range real fast, it looks like a slam dunk. Basically, if V has ANY semi bluffs in his range it’s a call. Curious what others come up with though.

This was the biggest factor i was looking over. We can safely discount QQ+, AKdd, AQdd type hands. Since I'm block Jd we can also take out JdXd from his range as well.


Would V c/r or c/c with KJ, QJ? I'm leaning towards a c/c.

c/r with KQdd? I can see that, maybe he backed into Ad55? had A4dd on the flop as far as his semi-bluffs

How did you arrive at 47% equity?

Pot on the turn $175 + $100(H's bet) + $340(V's all-in) + $240(H's call) = Final pot of $855.

240/855 = 28.07%

Hero needs ~28% equity to call. This is why I'm calling.

Ah, you’re right. I misread the turn action. This makes it even more of a call.

Is Q9dd is this V’s range?

I'd put that in there since he's closing the action pre from BB

Probably shoud've done this first, but does below range seems feasbile?

Player 1: 34.38% 30.22% 8.331% [AhJd]
Player 2: 65.62% 61.45% 8.331% {TT, 55-44, AJs, Ad5d-Ad2d, KJs, KdQd, Kd9d, QdJd, JTs, 9d8d, 7d6d, 54s}

Board: [Jh Td 4d 5c ?]
Deal To: River
Dead Cards: {}

55 are a stretch, am I not including more Jx in V's range?

Is it realistic that V is going to x/c his sets and two pairs on the flop with so many people on such a wet board? This seems unlikely and I think I’d account for that in my ranging. V can have Q9dd here, so I’d add that.

V was the last person to act on the flop, so there is a chance. But, my read on V isn't solid so I can't really confirm or deny that statement.


Player 1: 39.22% 25.58% 27.28% [AhJd]
Player 2: 60.78% 47.14% 27.28% {TT, 44, AJs, Ad5d-Ad2d, KdQd, Kd9d, QdJd, Qd9d, JTs, 9d8d, 7d6d, AJo}

Board: [Jh Td 4d 5c ?]
Deal To: River
Dead Cards: {}


if i remove KJ and other stretch hands we're looking at this

That doesn't seem right. Hero needs to call his last $240 to win $615 as he still has it in front of him when V shoves. Yes he gets it back if he wins, but it shouldn't be added to total pot when contemplating odds. Hero is getting 2.5-1 on a call so he needs 39% equity by my calculations.

Don’t we add our $240 to get the break even equity which should be 3.5:1?


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fold pre check flop check turn fold to raise. you have one pair 6 ways.

Yes.

Don't open AJo utg.
+
Don't open 5x utg.
=
Don't do what you did.

Limping looses less. Folding looses WAY less.

Not unless villain is putting in $240 as well, no. There is no more $ other than ours that goes into the pot. That money adds 0% to our equity.

I think no.

I think yes.

Again, I think no.

Someone please settle this.

backdoorflush is right. and he also explained it well.

+1

240/855 is correct.

The other numbers are obviously wrong because the only time you ever need more than 33% to call is if the shove is over a PSB.

You essentially never need 47% to call unless it's a full-stack shove into a practically dead pot. Literally if you open 4bbs and someone overships 100bbs on you, you need less than 47% to call (46.7% pre-rake, assuming neither of you are the blinds). If you ever have more than 51%, then you're value-betting/value-calling and it's never correct from a pot odds perspective to fold regardless of bet size.

Also, fold pre.