1/3 Aria: Top pair+ flushdraw against rec villain with big ego
Join Date: Jan 2016
Posts: 7,962
Fair enough. I didnt put as much weight into your read as you did.
Join Date: Sep 2016
Posts: 303
I'd raise flop. Our hand is obviously a monster OTF, but neither the made hand nor the draw are strong enough on their own that they'll stand up great when the pot gets big on later streets. Despite our position and the fact that villain prefers to bet than call, we're not going to be in a great spot when we get to the river with TP4K and he fires multiple barrels, for example.
Turn is an obvious call.
I don't think there's enough value in raising river. There's 21 combos of Q9+, and it's really tough to come up with more 22+ combos of worse hands that will call a $275 shove.
