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1/3 @ Aria - Big Pot Potential 1/3 @ Aria - Big Pot Potential

10-07-2014 , 04:49 PM
I was relatively new to the table but was playing my normal TAG style and started the hand with about $350. No real reads except Button appeared to be a calling station and Asian seemed Laggy (aren't they all?)

Asian UTG ($500) raises to $12
Fold
Short-stack ($140) calls $12
Fold
Hero ($350) with 9s9c calls $12
Fold
Fold
Button ($500) calls $12
SB/BB fold

Flop ($48) 8d 7d 5h

UTG leads $60
Short-stack shoves $125ish
Hero?

I have a tendency to not believe Asians but since the short stack technically raised, I had to worry about button and the initial bettor - what's my best play here?
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10-07-2014 , 04:59 PM
probably fold. would tend to lean on 3betting pre with better reads.

flop you're just getting yourself in ugly spots if you call. not to mention the number of times you get shoved behind.
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10-07-2014 , 05:03 PM
Fold. UTG might be Asian but he did just overbet a super wet flop into three other players and the short stack could easily have a bigger overpair, set, two pair, straight, combo draw, all of which you are either way behind or slightly behind/slightly ahead. Without running the calcs I would bet you probably have around 20% equity against their ranges.
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10-07-2014 , 05:04 PM
I think folding is totally fine, we aren't closing the action and we could potentially be drawing to 6 outs. I don't know what to range villans shove but I think it's going to be realatively strong with an over bet and two people behind him. I'm folding this and I think it's basically standard.
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10-07-2014 , 06:36 PM
Fold.

I am fond of telling myself "they can't BOTH be bull****ting."
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10-07-2014 , 06:41 PM
Yeah, fold.
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10-07-2014 , 08:40 PM
Easy fold. Not that great of a board for our hand. The only pocket pair we actually beat here is 66.
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10-07-2014 , 09:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nozsr
Fold.

I am fond of telling myself "they can't BOTH be bull****ting."
This is a favorite of mine, also.
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10-07-2014 , 09:27 PM
Meh.

Fold.
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10-07-2014 , 10:09 PM
if you were last to act and everyone else had folded, this would be an interesting spot.

i had 99 on an 865cc board about a week ago and shipped it over a raise after the OR got out of the way and was up against 34 against an Asian. i played it for the same reason you describe ... i just don't believe most Asians when they make a big play at the pot.

i would fold here since i think the guy who bet $60 is calling the shove.

if you think the Asian is FOS and you can get the original bettor to fold to a shove, though, i don't hate that play.
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10-08-2014 , 12:38 AM
Fold. You can argue a 3b pre is good here but not without more reads on asian and not to mention he DID raise pre utg. If he was in hj and you co and table folded around to him and he raised then, it's easy 3b.
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10-08-2014 , 01:00 AM
OK, seems like the clear play is to fold.

Results: I fold. Button calls, UTG calls. Turn 6s (F***), chk chk River blank, chk chk.

Asian KQdd
Short Stack A5dd
Button: 68o and he takes it with the 2 pair.
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10-08-2014 , 02:11 AM
Just out of equity sakes. Assuming the action completely stopped at the call of the flop shove from short stacks, you'd need 22.8% to break-even, which you're not getting even if you saw everyone's hand face-up


820 games 0.053 secs 15,471 games/sec

Board: 8d 7d 5h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 21.768% 21.71% 00.06% 178 0.50 { 9c9s }
Hand 1: 44.207% 44.15% 00.06% 362 0.50 { Ad5d }
Hand 2: 21.159% 21.10% 00.06% 173 0.50 { 8c6s }
Hand 3: 12.866% 12.80% 00.06% 105 0.50 { KdQd }


Of course this isn't taken into account the times shortstack has better, button folds (or has better), asian guy has better and/or 3bet shoves.
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10-08-2014 , 11:24 AM
I'm cool with preflop and just setmining. Sure, EP raiser might be laggy, but he is still raising in EP and there's not exactly a lot of dead money in the middle, so I'm cool with taking the easy setmining route instead of 3betting. Plus if we 3bet and get 4bet we'll have to fold a potential monster making hand.

I fold the flop. EP would have to be full on maniac to overbomb this flop with air. So at the very least he's got a hugenormous draw (overcards + flush draw) which is still doing very well against us, and at worst he has us crushed. Then there's the shortstack who's decided to go all-in with the world still left to act; that's pretty strong. This also re-opens the betting, so EP can reraise. Plus we have others still to play. Plus our outs might be dirty / no good. Plus all of our outs have no implied odds (all of them bringing 4-to-a-straight which might not get action). Trivial fold, imo.

GcluelessNLnoobG
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10-08-2014 , 11:32 AM
I'd say fold and wait for a better spot....
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10-08-2014 , 11:39 AM
What they said.
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10-08-2014 , 07:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rockymtnpro
OK, seems like the clear play is to fold.

Results: I fold. Button calls, UTG calls. Turn 6s (F***), chk chk River blank, chk chk.

Asian KQdd
Short Stack A5dd
Button: 68o and he takes it with the 2 pair.

I like button's hand better than yours. This is too results oriented.
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