1/3 arguably spewy play
06-05-2018
, 06:15 AM
Quote:
Alright well here's my logic. He's probably raising 50% range on BTN especially with that sizing if not wider. Sure some LAGs size down value hands, but most experienced 1/3 players size up their value to build a bigger pot. So I'm risking $49 to win $19 which needs to win 72% of the time for an immediate profit. Let's say he defends by flatting a 20% range and 4 betting QQ+, AK (I'm assuming he does not 4 bet bluff often enough for it to matter). Take this flatting range for example. He folds 54% of the time (maybe closer to 50% if he 4 bet bluffs) and this is way wider than most 1/3 villains are calling a $50 reraise with (who the hell calls KTo at 1/3 vs that sizing unless station). I'm also assuming the chances that BB or the limper gets involved is small enough to not matter (although it certainly makes his required fold frequency a few % higher I'm sure).
https://gyazo.com/30bf41a1d543820f7ffc6bf1f6f60e56
How do you post pictures? Image link for gyazo always says image not found even with .img.
On the flop he has air more than 50% of the time and top pair or better just 27% of the time. And a lot of his air is just complete air. He only has a few gutshots.
So long story short, after analyzing this hand, I don't think it's total spew which is why in the thread title I said arguably spewy
. I think combined with my equity when called, him folding 54% makes pre a break even ish play. And also I kind of got lucky in the sense that I got a favourable flop for my range as opposed to a middling one. I'm OK with the variance because every time I run a questionable play, I learn something. And also it helps my value hands get action.
My only regret is not shoving flop as some have suggested ITT because I keep assuming no one at 1/3 is capable of running big bluffs which although is true in general, isn't always the case. Here it's very unlikely he's fast playing his 2 pair+ and that's only 4% of his range anyways. His range is just so air heavy my hand is probably good and since he's getting the correct price to call with even two overs shoving to deny him that equity is important.
https://gyazo.com/30bf41a1d543820f7ffc6bf1f6f60e56
How do you post pictures? Image link for gyazo always says image not found even with .img.
On the flop he has air more than 50% of the time and top pair or better just 27% of the time. And a lot of his air is just complete air. He only has a few gutshots.
So long story short, after analyzing this hand, I don't think it's total spew which is why in the thread title I said arguably spewy
. I think combined with my equity when called, him folding 54% makes pre a break even ish play. And also I kind of got lucky in the sense that I got a favourable flop for my range as opposed to a middling one. I'm OK with the variance because every time I run a questionable play, I learn something. And also it helps my value hands get action.My only regret is not shoving flop as some have suggested ITT because I keep assuming no one at 1/3 is capable of running big bluffs which although is true in general, isn't always the case. Here it's very unlikely he's fast playing his 2 pair+ and that's only 4% of his range anyways. His range is just so air heavy my hand is probably good and since he's getting the correct price to call with even two overs shoving to deny him that equity is important.
